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July 2024 Observations and Discussion


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

I mean I’m not even talking about Synoptics or even anyone on here… just that local METS are now forced to pimp “relief” as mid-60s lows.

Normal mins right now are 64F at BDL and 62F at ORH.

This new climate regime makes something approaching “normal” summer weather like it's some cool crisp Canadian airmass.

Disagree. He didn't say it was going to be cold. He said it was going to be a relief from nightly lows in the '70s. Seems to me to be the definition of relief.

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20 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Disagree. He didn't say it was going to be cold. He said it was going to be a relief from nightly lows in the '70s. Seems to me to be the definition of relief.

Ok fair enough.  Just drops down to normal I guess, which is a relief from the torch.

Just wild to me how far our goalposts have moved these summers.

We used to look for “relief” from those nights in the 60s.  Now it’s like oh, thank god we might touch the normal min for a couple nights.

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18 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ok fair enough.  Just drops down to normal I guess, which is a relief from the torch.

Just wild to me how far our goalposts have moved these summers.

We used to look for “relief” from those nights in the 60s.  Now it’s like oh, thank god we might touch the normal min for a couple nights.

And most here know those temps will come up as we get closer and “x” model understands the WAR A good example is the VT floods last night. One model and its buyers had wagons south and one had wagons north with washed out roads and bridges from several days ago. In winter and summer that WAR is always undermodeled especially past day 3-5. If you factor that in.. generally all events get pushed north and west . And that includes dew downs and cool downs. It’s buyer beware and seller knowing what they’re selling. 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And most here know those temps will come up as we get closer and “x” model understands the WAR 

I’m not willing to jump on that train but given that it’s just easier for the atmosphere to get warmer than it is colder right now… seems possible.

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1 hour ago, klw said:

 

Lyndonville fatality also confirmed

I can’t believe the guy ignored the warnings from the people there. I can’t imagine trying to stop someone and the. Seeing them almost immediately get swept away. 

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Should’ve started a thread last night and feel bad spamming the thread random social media damage shots.

But it’s crazy what these short-term flash flood events can do.

IMG_0237.thumb.jpeg.8de3e4f717057b978c2b50ee5d973ae4.jpeg

I would say go into the banter thread and spray it with every flood picture you have.  Some of us want to see it all! I find the VT flooding quite tragic.  WNE, NNE and ENY have had a ridiculous hydro stretch since 2011 but VT has just been ground zero.  Crazy. 

 r/Vermont had some wild stuff.

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1 hour ago, mreaves said:

I can’t believe the guy ignored the warnings from the people there. I can’t imagine trying to stop someone and the. Seeing them almost immediately get swept away. 

I once tried to stop a motorcyclist from driving through a road flooded by moving water from a nearby creek. He almost got swept away and a guardrail basically saved his life. 

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 End of July and first half of August will be humid for sure but I think heat waves are done in most of New England after next week.

I'm confident there will be 84-88F days with DP's in the upper 60's but the spectacular real feel temps are over by the 18th.

I like summer weather, don't love the HHH days but the past 2 weeks have been a fun stretch because it's nice to hang out, outside at 10pm, in shorts and t-shirts. 

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3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

July 11 and the usual suspects trying to end what is shaping up to be our hottest and most humid summer on record for all of NE. Folks are beyond desperate . Deez dews getting to them . So far June and July in top 3. Lol

It's been a very hot summer and is far from over...but peak climo is what it is, regardless of how the summer has been. 

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3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan has breezed a lot and does not represent the area. Hell I was 92 the other day while Logan was 77. Not representable. 

I have five consecutive days above 90...last Friday and Saturday were 89....so very close to seven. Tomorrow probably makes it, but the streak probably ends Saturday. Then I get another four in a row.

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6 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 End of July and first half of August will be humid for sure but I think heat waves are done in most of New England after next week.

I'm confident there will be 84-88F days with DP's in the upper 60's but the spectacular real feel temps are over by the 18th.

I like summer weather, don't love the HHH days but the past 2 weeks have been a fun stretch because it's nice to hang out, outside at 10pm, in shorts and t-shirts. 

I think August will have a heatwave. 

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24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Min 66.4

 

Why are we canceling summer again?

Lol. Peak summer is now thru mid Augdewst. I think the HHH is getting to some folks. Like saying in early JAN that we're done with the cold. Lol. 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A little wild with the flood watches. While our area can get a lot of rain, seems a little wild for all those watches.

We flood!

As far as timing for heavy rainfall goes, the latest suite of hi-res
model guidance suggests heavy downpours may begin to trickle into
western MA and CT a few hours before sunrise Saturday morning.
Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue east into eastern MA
and RI during the mid to late morning hours. Signals for excessive
rainfall are rather robust from the 00Z HREF with some 10 to 20
percent probabilities of 6 hour rainfall exceeding 100 year average
return intervals (ARIs). Furthermore, the HREF localized probability
matched mean QPF product is highlighting the potential for as much
as 5 inches of rain over localized areas. There is considerable
uncertainty with respect to which locations will experience the
heaviest rainfall, but generally all of southern New England will be
at risk, especially the urban areas. Given the strong signals for
heavy rainfall, we`ve raised a flood watch for all of southern New
England minus The Cape/Islands from 2AM Saturday to 8PM Saturday.
Activity should begin to wane by mid-afternoon on Saturday and
eventually clear our by Saturday evening. The atmosphere will remain
warm and muggy during this time, but with extensive cloud cover for
much of the day on Saturday, high temperatures should be confined to
the low to mid 80s.
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I’ll probably be a little too far north for the rain again. Hopefully we luck out with something decent. My soil moisture sensor is now the driest it’s ever been…88cb for those who know how those Watermark sensors work. 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll probably be a little too far north for the rain again. Hopefully we luck out with something decent. My soil moisture sensor is now the driest it’s ever been…88cb for those who know how those Watermark sensors work. 

Water table still pretty high around me even with just .85 rain this month. Trails are still flooded in spots. Used to be the dry up in May.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why are there flood watches? At most a few towns get 1-2”. Seems way overdone . Some towns get no rain 

There is considerable
uncertainty with respect to which locations will experience the
heaviest rainfall
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