June 2024

[BxEngine]

Pretty horrendous short term fail by models here re clouds. Zero sun. 

[bluewave]

We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east.

New run

 

Old run

 

[winterwx21]

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And ewr is already nearly +7 for the month. 

It's also looking very dry the next 10 days

Yeah obviously this month is gonna end up WAY above average. Looks like finally a couple slightly below average days Monday and Tuesday, but consistent well above average temps after that. 

Thankfully we got that good soaking the other day, but we're really gonna be in need of rain by late next week. As you said, it's not looking good with the very dry pattern ahead. Lots of watering will be needed. 

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

And ewr is already nearly +7 for the month. 

It's also looking very dry the next 10 days

First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s.

Newark June 1-7 warmest averages and maximum temperature

2010….77.9….94

1999…75.9….99

2024…75.8….89

1989….75.7….94

2021….75.4….97

[Rtd208]

Update on LaNina from DT (WxRisk)

[SACRUS]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending top 5 warmest first weeks of June and maximum temperature

1 2010-06-07 77.9 94

2 1999-06-07 75.9 99

3 2024-06-07 75.8 89

4 1989-06-07 75.7 94

5 2021-06-07 75.4 97

 

Last below normal daily departure at EWR was May 13th (-5)

[SnoSki14]

17 minutes ago, bluewave said:

First time that Newark started June in the top 5 warmest with no 90s.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending top 5 warmest first weeks of June and maximum temperature

1 2010-06-07 77.9 94

2 1999-06-07 75.9 99

3 2024-06-07 75.8 89

4 1989-06-07 75.7 94

5 2021-06-07 75.4 97

It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore 

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Pretty horrendous short term fail by models here re clouds. Zero sun. 

 

Clouds splitting the area NJ  in half

 

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore 

Another over the top warm up which allows for enough onshore flow to reduce the 90° potential.

[donsutherland1]

Under brilliant sunshine, a refreshing breeze, and an active breeze, the New York Botanical Garden is about as picturesque as it gets.

[Eduardo]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east.

New run

 

Old run

 

Already psyched for a flip to a SE ridge and Greenland vortex just in time for ‘snow’ season! 

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower.

Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).

 

[Jersey Andrew]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Tomorrow will be another refreshing day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A few spots could see a shower or thundershower.

Through early next week, temperatures will continue to reach the upper 70s and lower 80s. A warming trend will likely commence after midweek.

Following New York City's 4th warmest spring and Philadelphia's 6th warmest spring, there is a distinct possibility that June 2024 will rank among the 10 warmest Junes on record in both cities. Records go back to 1869 in New York City and 1874 in Philadelphia.

The latest summer guidance continues to suggest a warmer to much warmer than normal summer lies ahead.  

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.1°C for the week centered around May 29. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C. Neutral ENSO conditions are underway. The neutral ENSO will likely evolve into a La Niña event during the summer or perhaps early fall.

The SOI was -18.98 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.584 today.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.1° (3.1° above normal).

 

Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond?

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Don, does NYC take a warm to hot turn around June 20 and beyond?

I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period. 

[nycwinter]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are still feeling the effects of the major stratospheric disruption back in March. That is pretty much the one thing holding back the arrival of any major 95°+ heat at this point. It has been such a strong pattern recently that the only cool patch in a record sea of warm Atlantic is to our east.

New run

 

Old run

 

looking forward to a exciting tropical season..

[donsutherland1]

CPC Week 3-4 Outlook:

[SACRUS]

 

 

Highs:

 

ACY: 84
EWR: 83
PHL: 82
BLM: 81
JFK:  81
New Brnswck: 79
TEB: 79
ISP: 79
LGA: 79
TTN: 79

NYC: 76

[nycwinter]

6 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I suspect that NYC is 2 or 3 weeks away from the onset of a significantly hot period. 

thank goodness i live near central park to escape the high heat...

[mjr]

5 hours ago, nycwinter said:

thank goodness i live near central park to escape the high heat...

Probably should not get carried away with prospective 90+ readings at NYC as we now seem to be well into the "Central Park Foliage " season during which the NWS has abandoned any pretense of caring about accurate afternoon temperature readings at NYC. Below is for 2024.

                                   Average High Temperature

                    Feb          Mar          Apr          May        May 20-31      June 1-8

EWR            47.4         56.5         63.6         75.2          81.7                85.4

LGA             45.6         54.3         60.8         72.3          79.1                82.9

NYC             46.2        55.7          63.8         72.5          78.4               80.9                        

 

     

 

[the_other_guy]

18 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been consistently well above normal. You don't even need extreme heat to get a top 5 month anymore 

This pattern has been especially noticeable in the winter in the last seven years

[bluewave]

These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year. 

 

[SACRUS]

 

69 / 60 , a bit more humid than yesterday.  Cloudy and showers around in the northern sections and passing through NJ.  Should get breaks in the clouds to make way for a very nice part of the day between 11M - 1PM with upper 70s / low 80s.  The trough and UL in the GL was bound to send some clouds / showers this way.  Overall dry and near normal through Wed with chance for showers / storm on Tue PM (6/11) - Wed (6/12).  Heat for the warmer spots by Thu (6/13) before all areas get there Fri (6./14) - maybe the park too.  Looks like a quick black of >18C 850 MB temps. May see showers storms Sat (6/15) before hotter by Fathers day Sun (6/17).  Beyond there looking overall warm to hot as heights reman elevated.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

Euro now with less troughing  NE  in the 7- 10 day

[Stormlover74]

Forecast is now 94 for friday..ewr 95

[forkyfork]

looks like midwest centered heat with pieces coming east which would be good for storms 

[forkyfork]

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looks like midwest centered heat with pieces coming east which would be good for storms 

Yes, please 

[tdp146]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

These over the top wam ups have become more common in recent years as the shore of Hudson Bay reached 95° before Newark did this year. 

 

So I guess Canada will be our source region for heat now?

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Forecast is now 94 for friday..ewr 95

Yeah and as I mentioned yesterday, it appears that the heat will start on Thursday with low 90s. The timing of the heat moved up with Thursday and Friday the hot days, and then a little cooler with lower humidity for next weekend. We can hope for a storm with the front late Friday too. That looks like our only chance in this dry pattern over the next week. 

[Stormlover74]

2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah and as I mentioned yesterday, it appears that the heat will start on Thursday with low 90s. The timing of the heat moved up with Thursday and Friday the hot days, and then cooler with lower humidity for next weekend. We can hope for a storm with the front late Friday too. That looks like our only chance in this dry pattern over the next week. 

Saturday could be one of those hot dry post frontal days with temps still reaching 90