Geoboy645 Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 The models within the last couple of days have really honed in on a potential multi-day severe and heavy rain threat over this weekend over the western part of the forum. With a particular focus at this point on Friday in IA for severe and a heavy rain event over the Upper Mississippi Valley for the weekend. Considering how wet it has been in that part of the forum for the last month and a half, there may be some flooding concerns as we get closer. Could be a very busy weekend here in the Midwest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaserguy Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 It’s a little outside of the geography of this sub but I am planning on chasing Friday and Saturday. Friday in Iowa along the warm front and Saturday farther southwest along the dryline in Kansas or maybe Oklahoma. Been a long time since I’ve done a little multi day chase so I am pretty pumped about this weekend. . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted April 23 Share Posted April 23 up here looking like two main rounds with the two waves/lows that ride NE. First is a heavy rain threat Friday afternoon transitioning to scattered severe storms overnight and into the afternoon on Saturday. The second low will bring more heavy rain and a risk of severe along the triple point on Sunday afternoon and evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted April 24 Author Share Posted April 24 SPC has introduced a Day 4 15% across IA/IL/WI all the way to the UP Border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pen_artist Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Curious what the 00z HRRR will show. 18z HRR showing around 18z Saturday a bit more of a decent environment entering into N IL/S WI. Has anyone had any thoughts on this threat for Chicago area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 25 Share Posted April 25 Miss west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 4 hours ago, A-L-E-K said: Miss west I'm okay with the summer wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 oh yeah, looks great wx wise and close enough to not feel like pattern is doomed anything that keeps d1 away from mby is good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 Our morning rain event is a giant dud. 35-dewpoint air killed it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 not really in this area, but tor-e in west Omaha suburbs, pretty nasty looking wedge. this is a crazy couplet considering this is only about 6 miles from the radar site 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 absolutely insane... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 8 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Our morning rain event is a giant dud. 35-dewpoint air killed it. A lot more ops coming up for heavy rains over the next week looks like. Severe aspect lucks pretty wussy for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 1 hour ago, cyclone77 said: A lot more ops coming up for heavy rains over the next week looks like. Severe aspect lucks pretty wussy for this area. I only got 0.15" today, lower than even the driest models. You just can't start the day with cold, dry air and expect to get much. Several models predicted 1+" across my area, so they really blew it. Saturday night into Sunday morning is still uncertain. Models are predicting anything from only a few tenths to a couple inches. It just depends on where the storms blow up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Rain was a dud here today. Let’s see what tonight brings. Tornado Sirens blaring down in Des Moines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Storm near Osceola looks nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 TOG east of Des Moines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Just now, SchaumburgStormer said: TOG east of Des Moines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Yikes, she’s chewing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: TOG east of Des Moines Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 IAC099-153-270230- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240427T0230Z/ Polk IA-Jasper IA- 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES... At 857 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pleasant Hill, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill, Bondurant, Adventureland Amusement Park, and Prairie Meadows around 900 PM CDT. Mitchellville around 905 PM CDT. Valeria around 915 PM CDT. Colfax around 920 PM CDT. Mingo around 925 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mingo, Valeria, and Runnells. This includes the following highways... Interstate 80 between mile markers 140 and 155. Interstate 235 between mile markers 10 and 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 2 minutes ago, yoda said: Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Des Moines IA 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 IAC099-153-270230- /O.CON.KDMX.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-240427T0230Z/ Polk IA-Jasper IA- 857 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN POLK AND WESTERN JASPER COUNTIES... At 857 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Pleasant Hill, moving northeast at 35 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes, businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction is possible. The tornado will be near... Des Moines, Altoona, Pleasant Hill, Bondurant, Adventureland Amusement Park, and Prairie Meadows around 900 PM CDT. Mitchellville around 905 PM CDT. Valeria around 915 PM CDT. Colfax around 920 PM CDT. Mingo around 925 PM CDT. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mingo, Valeria, and Runnells. This includes the following highways... Interstate 80 between mile markers 140 and 155. Interstate 235 between mile markers 10 and 12. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Heavy rainfall may hide this tornado. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW! Rain wrapped too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Another TDS east of Des Moines 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 Unfortunately, but not surprisingly, most of the CAMs are showing much of the storms and heavy rain tracking eastward, to the south of the boundary that extends northeastward through southeast Iowa. North of the boundary we may end up with nothing more than some light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 27 Share Posted April 27 possible tornado in Wisconsin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Southeast Wisconsin gets a watch and we don't? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Yesterday's big rain event dropped 0.15" in my yard. Tonight's big rain event dropped a whopping 0.10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 1 hour ago, Chinook said: possible tornado in Wisconsin I pulled up GR Level 3 about 6:30 and saw what appeared to be a bona fide supercell taking shape near Monticello tracking east. I grabbed my cameras and loaded them into the car; right as I was doing so is when the tornado warning went out. I had redemption for bungling yesterday's southwest Iowa chase on my mind. Not to be as by the time I got to where I would have had a view of the updraft base, the storm had essentially ceased to exist. Currently getting some nice boomers back at the house in Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Hoping a train sets up at some point with this pattern. Nice one over northern lower at this point. Models showing mostly boring stratiform for here though. EML is all eaten up by time the front is nearby. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM Share Posted Sunday at 04:59 AM Nothing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Sunday at 10:41 PM 20 hours ago, frostfern said: Hoping a train sets up at some point with this pattern. Nice one over northern lower at this point. Models showing mostly boring stratiform for here though. EML is all eaten up by time the front is nearby. I am not surprised by the results. Heavier stuff remained to our south with these setups. Pretty typical this time of year as the colder Great Lakes seem to keep things in IN and OH; storms just get into the southern 2 rows of MI (Coldwater, Kzoo and Jackson). Tomorrow might be our best chance but even then I am not going to hold my breath as it is just April (not a great storm month for my area normally). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM Share Posted Sunday at 11:10 PM 20 minutes ago, Lightning said: I am not surprised by the results. Heavier stuff remained to our south with these setups. Pretty typical this time of year as the colder Great Lakes seem to keep things in IN and OH; storms just get into the southern 2 rows of MI (Coldwater, Kzoo and Jackson). Tomorrow might be our best chance but even then I am not going to hold my breath as it is just April (not a great storm month for my area normally). Storms actually missed north yesterday. There was some decent hail near Ludington. This just isn't a Great Lakes setup though. It's a plains setup. Best bet for stronger convection farther north and east looks to be next week Thursday. Still uncertainty though. Still way better pattern than last year at this time when there were hardly any storms anywhere in the US. Keeping my fingers crossed there is no blocking again this May. That just killed spring storm season last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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