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May 2024 Discussion - Welcome to Severe Season!!!!


weatherwiz
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Leaf out update… it’s making its way towards 2k feet up here.  1500ft is now turning pretty green but still some scattered sticks.  2,000ft is now seeing buds starting to open (maybe 50-50). Valley bottom at the low elevation of only 750ft is full young green/growth. Ridgeline height gets to 3,600ft for reference on the east side of town in the Worcester Range.

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47 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

That’s not a quick fix. Geez. This is from straight line winds too?

I’m guessing it’ll be mostly straight line winds. I think there was one TDS near Houston. Basically a cat 1 rolled through the region. Interesting how the actual obs sites had lower reported gusts. 

Phil ripping glass out of skyscrapers type stuff. Insane. 

 

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4 hours ago, dendrite said:

59.9° for a high. Ouch.

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Remember when that was a badge of honor on the forums?  20 years ago in the mid-2000s on WWBB it was a big win to have the lowest temps, especially during the warm season.

My how we’ve all aged and grown up… :lol:.

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7 hours ago, kdxken said:

 

It appears our 3-6” rain events are better modeled and are of a much higher likelihood now than 3-6” of frozen granules in the middle of the winter. I eagerly await tips insightful explanation as to how that could possibly be in our neck of the woods in the cc era. To me, it’s just baffling how these crazy rain totals are thrown around like snowfall predictions and it seems as if very few people take notice anymore.

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16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM a soaker for Dendy to EMA Saturday with 50’s. HRRR not as wet there, but wet 

Looked mostly like a western New England thing, cloudy weekend for most.

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33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow, Houston got fucked. And now the Nam tries to fuck the weekend.

Frankly it looks like all models were festering that low level grunge low E of NJ, while S of modest +PP layout over NS - hold just enough differential static for 2 days it sends pulses of low level Labradorian ass vomit all weekend long. I'm like ... really -

They weren't ever ideal for the weekend in prior runs, but they're coalescing around that idea now doesn't seem like physics. LOL.  And this is infuriating looking ... because it's hard to find any kind of mid and upper support for that "anchor" low.  And it's not even deep. It's like 1009 mb ... barely lower than standard sea-level, yet it keeps us in the 50s ...

I gotta say though, we were supposed to be locked in the 50s in the 2-meter progs from the Euro, yesterday, yet we had a gorgeous sunny mid to late afternoon into early evening and temps recovered to 70 for a high.  It's probably grasping for hope to say so but it could be a prelude to these models over doing it.  

It's really sensitive around here.... the ocean being 44 F while the 850s over land support 72 makes for some whiplash error potential.  All depends which 10 minutes of W or E wind is in place.

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