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Significant Miller B Nor'easter watch, Apr 3rd-4th


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19 minutes ago, Weathernoob335 said:

Reminds me, I need to spend a free day and write down when models publish so I know for reference

They come out at midnight and then 6 hour intervals except some models only report every 12 and I think the euro is an hour or two later.

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16 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

its a latitude thing tho .. doesn't matter how far west the primary goes, as long as it doesn't go north 

Yes. The northward push of the primary is where the issues occur. A system sliding due east from Chicago to Cleveland and redeveloping E of ACY is totally fine. But when the primary rips up into Lake Huron, it’s hard to hold the midlevel structure of the storm in a manner that produces huge snows for SNE. 

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro looks a bit warmer and north again. Almost game over for SNE but it does still hit ORH county to Berkshires decent. 

And of course it’s north…… can always count on things to trend away from snow. 

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If I remember correctly the storm back in February started to shift north and we thought we were out of the game in Southern New England and then a couple days before it came back down and we got 15 in of snow where I'm at. I'm not saying that's going to happen at all but you never know

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5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

If I remember correctly the storm back in February started to shift north and we thought we were out of the game in Southern New England and then a couple days before it came back down and we got 15 in of snow where I'm at. I'm not saying that's going to happen at all but you never know

It actually trended so far south it looked like all of us were gonna get skunked and then at the last second it bumped back enough to crush CT. We still got screwed up here. We got maybe 4”. 

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23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It actually trended so far south it looked like all of us were gonna get skunked and then at the last second it bumped back enough to crush CT. We still got screwed up here. We got maybe 4”. 

That was a great example of dynamics helping places like the cape. 6-8” of glue there.

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My other concern besides the north trends (which are obviously bad) is that the storm is getting weaker. On the snowiest runs the low deepened to the low 970s or even high 960s, on these more recent runs it’s only deepening to the low 980s or high 970s. Given the setup and the fact that it’s going to be April, we need a truly extreme storm to get big snows right to the coast. Otherwise, it’s just meh. Oh well, there’s a reason why April blizzards are so rare in my area.

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2 minutes ago, 512high said:

So from the sounds of this my last two plows could have come off and put away today? I will hold off for the next 24 hrs, maybe  mount squeegee instead lol I really thought we had something...

I’d hold off up there. Latitude will matter. But yeah, you want a tick south. N of pike crowd between pike and ASH/MHT can still get a big system if this nudges south a little but the trends haven’t been favorable the last 24 hours. 

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You guys really think we're done lol. I already know for Southern New England that getting a snow storm this time of the year is super difficult to impossible. But, to say that the storm track is now set in stone is laughable. How many times has this happened over the winter. It's not like the storm is 2 days away. It's not until Wednesday and Thursday. Maybe it will be nothing but to say it's trended in the wrong direction and this is the final outcome is kind of funny. 

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