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March 2024 disco/obs


Torch Tiger
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On 3/8/2024 at 9:59 AM, SJonesWX said:

I am going to go ahead and take the WAY under on that for my area. no way do I see 3-5". perhaps some wet flakes, but that will be about it. my call: 0.0" 

AWT. 0.00000” with some mangled flakes mixed in at the onset.

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Yeah ... I'd pump the breaks on warmth expectations N of NYC if you're willing to be objective/realistic. Based upon available guidance/indicators there-of-all, too dicey.

You're not ever, in mid March, going to get certitude for warmth when there is a west to east oriented polar boundary aligned from roughly ORD to ALB to PWM.   That's cutting things really, really close during a seasonal time of year where cold still tends to win those battles. 

Lord knows I want it.  The preceding statement has nothing to do with my personal druthers on this week.  But ... I don't tend to allow that sort of thing effect my judgement. If the ridge burgeons more and the modeling trend pushes said boundary another 200 clicks N, that'd help.

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Btw ...I had a thought this morning.  

With this AI invasion into the et al technology of weather/environmental modeling, we may not have as much of the annoyance in waiting the extra hour for dissemination ?  

The delay may get offset.    I'm wondering -

It's probably just a matter of time before the American side adopts something similar to the ECMWF's goal. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Btw ...I had a thought this morning.  

If this AI invasion into the et al technology of weather/environmental modeling, we may not have as much of the annoyance in waiting the extra hour for dissemination ?  

The delay may get offset.    I'm wondering -

It's probably just a matter of time before the American side adopts something similar to the ECMWF's goal. 

This Fourcast Net group or whatever they are can be run on the GEFS. I think stormvista did this. The AI version of the GEFS finished in 4 minutes lol. Basically renders the old school GEFs useless from a trader point of view.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This Fourcast Net group or whatever they are can be run on the GEFS. I think stormvista did this. The AI version of the GEFS finished in 4 minutes lol. Basically renders the old school GEFs useless from a trader point of view.

Some would argue it's always been useless. :ph34r:

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