ORH_wxman Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: April snow Have to believe Bring back 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 The Nam has analfront snow here once it boob sags SE, I'll go out on a limb and say its not happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again. It's unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: What a frustrating pattern. Instead of developing a nice low to the south, this whole thing just presses SE and kicks it OTS. This effing season can end now. Cutters, precip chasing cold, storms bombing too far east/too late. Big rainers. Aside from a fluke storm here it’s another ratter. That said, I hope the NNE peeps get clobbered. I’d chase if I weren’t so done with anything wintry. Also, March Madness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again. We discussed this how we in the south could see cold but not snow. Very disappointing but since it is what it is. Time to move on to warmth. I am with Scooter let's start growing some wild stuff. I as always will watch the north guys as they are primed but us flatlands Hasta La Vista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Lol Kev you forgot 18 And ‘17 and last year(‘23) for HUBB Dave and Ineedsnow. And his firehouse storm was March of 13 not 15. But March of 15 was plenty snowy and wintry too. Poor guys memory is shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6z Euro Ens total snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It's unreal. The nuances are king…and after being with us for years…we’ve been striking out in that aspect of late. But it’ll be back and we’ll get ours again in future seasons. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 RGEM is south again. Windshield wipers full on with models now. Hopefully can get this out some to Ray's hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah this was super close to being a nuke....but just enough northern stream nuances to screw it up again. I know we've been over this before ... but it's idiosyncratic and dated conversation, neither of which lends well to the general reader. We have been having trouble phasing. That's the short version. Longer, it has been a recurrent problem in winters going back some 8 years. This (obviously) was not true all the times, but the reason (imho) why makes sense that some better phasing performing months have been like March 2018. Hint, the flow slows... phasing has more success. - too much velocity in the hemispheric medium. Phasing requires a narrow velocity ratio between N-S motion, vs the W-E ... Particularly, ( I'm just speaking to the generic reader here - ) when the W-E is fast, the S/W embedded bi-pass, or may partially succeed... but the true subsume/captures become physically challenged. From orbit this just looks, in general, like the N/stream is just nuance interfering like you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 we RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Not a bad member in the euro suite. Is this the NAM and its NW bias or is it sniffing out the warmth better than other models? Think you need to lean NAM for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 One thing zero torch days shown on any Ensembles next 15 days. We New England typical early spring shit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Just now, Ginx snewx said: One thing zero torch days shown on any Ensembles next 15 days. We New England typical early spring shit Junior just passed out, drunk… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I know we've been over this before ... but it's idiosyncratic and dated conversation, neither of which lends well to the general reader. We have been having trouble phasing. That's the short version. Longer, it has been a recurrent problem in winters going back some 8 years. This (obviously) was not true all the times, but the reason (imho) why makes sense that some better phasing performing months have been like March 2018. Hint, the flow slows... phasing has more success. - too much velocity in the hemispheric medium. Phasing requires a narrow velocity ratio between N-S motion, vs the W-E ... Particularly, ( I'm just speaking to the generic reader here - ) when the W-E is fast, the S/W embedded bi-pass, or may partially succeed... but the true subsume/captures become physically challenged. From orbit this just looks, in general, like the N/stream is just nuance interfering like you say. Disagree we have had a ton of phasing events the last 8 years not all snowstorms but it's been a constant barrage of phased Nor’easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 48 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I’m at 46” maybe an outside shot at 60” which would be little less than 75% climo. So maybe a C- winter is still in reach F that. you're too generous. If we got another 12" that would put us at 52" seasonal. the way this winter ran, I can't give it more than D-. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 6 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: Not a bad member in the euro suite. Is this the NAM and its NW bias or is it sniffing out the warmth better than other models? Think you need to lean NAM for now. Nam does very well with sniffing out warmth in marginal setups, I wouldn't discount it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 April 1, 1997 will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 24 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 6z Euro Ens total snow Quite solid actually if its correct, A lot of those looks like the 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 If this were all last month X 20 years ago ... near warning ice would likely set up from Orange Mass to Concord NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 I buy a more NAM solution vs RGEM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Nam does very well with sniffing out warmth in marginal setups, I wouldn't discount it. That’s where I’m at right now. 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Quite solid actually if its correct, A lot of those looks like the 12z RGEM. Euro/Canadians vs Nam/GFS. 9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: F that. you're too generous. If we got another 12" that would put us at 52" seasonal. the way this winter ran, I can't give it more than D-. With the decent January stretch we had here it’s hard for me to go D-. Right now it’s a D but if this next system ends up producing I might go C-. We’ll need double digits for me to consider though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Congrats everyone on everything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Congrats everyone on everything. ...including this ever so fruitful, eventful, and downright amazing winter season of 23/24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 the thermodynamic properties of this air mass are talcum powder tundra snows tho. how are we moderating this very cold thermodynamic aspect prior to the arrival of any mid level WAA fist? that's likely what the RGEM is seeing here. the NAM has a routine NW bias ... particularly outside 36 hours - plus, it's the NAM. fwiw, the ICON has been RGEM like for several runs now the other global models have been suspect as the Euro early on in this thing had zip...while the GFS was going gonzo. then ...the GFS backs off (some) and the Euro is presently huge. the continuity isn't very good in the general synoptic scope. that said, even the GFS seems ( this 12z) to respect the bl resistance with 6 hr belt of IP down to the MA/NH border, when at the same time it's probably no resolving below 950 mb very well so ... i think this has a shot at being a surprise cold profiled relative to one's latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 Coast and the Coastal plain is the wildcard up here, Back beyond that, Its a lock for mainly all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 We couldn't get a single storm to break right for us this season. Just another washout weekend. Maybe we can salvage a decent Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Coast and the Coastal plain is the wildcard up here, Back beyond that, Its a lock for mainly all snow. I've seen plenty of setups like this where Naples is more or less out and I am in. Tip makes a good point about the antecedent airmass. Ironically it's one of the better ones we've had all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 2 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: I've seen plenty of setups like this where Naples is more or less out and I am in. Tip makes a good point about the antecedent airmass. Ironically it's one of the better ones we've had all season. Quite honestly, I think your in a good spot for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now