Chicago Storm Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Well, it absolutely feels like April 1 here in Chicago. 54° and thunderstorms actually probably more like May 1..can definitely tell you’re new here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DocATL Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 can definitely tell you’re new here.Ok May 1st maybe an exaggeration but definitely spring-like, no?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Danny8 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 On 2/1/2024 at 2:21 PM, Danny8 said: Looking like a good thing I was in the UP mid-January this year. You'll have to give us a snowpack update in 10 days or so So how are things looking in the UP @weatherbo and @wishforsnow? Any trails open at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 In other news. With the warmth yesterday. GRB is now up to a +17.1 (!) departure for the month. And that's probably not going to come down to earth all that much in the next 5-7 days going by the point forecast. Even if we had a repeat of the Mid-January cold wave, and that's not looking likely at all, we'd still be talking about probably at least a +5 anomaly for the month. We have to be pretty much locked in for at least a top 15 if not top 10 warmest February at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Record high at DTW today of 64°. This is 20° warmer than the warmest temperature of January. Very breezy all day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 2 hours ago, Geoboy645 said: In other news. With the warmth yesterday. GRB is now up to a +17.1 (!) departure for the month. And that's probably not going to come down to earth all that much in the next 5-7 days going by the point forecast. Even if we had a repeat of the Mid-January cold wave, and that's not looking likely at all, we'd still be talking about probably at least a +5 anomaly for the month. We have to be pretty much locked in for at least a top 15 if not top 10 warmest February at this point. Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days. Minneapolis Green Bay Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 11 hours ago, Danny8 said: So how are things looking in the UP @weatherbo and @wishforsnow? Any trails open at all? Trails are toast here. Down to the bare ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 Had an unexpected popup thunderstorm roll through here about 900 pm tonight with pea sized hail and lightning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 12 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Crazy stuff. This must be a 1 in 1000-year winter heat wave up there, but barely registering with our derelict media these days. Minneapolis Green Bay Milwaukee I am not denying it is warm or data you have presented for these locations. I am expecting a lot more warmth records to fall in the years to come. But the statement of this being 1 in 1000 years is typical fear mongering type tactic. We are missing a good 800+ years of identical daily/moment by moment data to make this statement. In recent years these type of statements have been a lot more popular to use in the Meteorological world and many times it is disingenuous and intentionally used for as headline grabbing tactics. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sethtoast Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 19 hours ago, Danny8 said: So how are things looking in the UP @weatherbo and @wishforsnow? Any trails open at all? They gave up over a week ago. I had a ski trip planned in the Porcupine Mountains but had to cancel because it looks like this at the moment 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 On 2/9/2024 at 3:06 PM, Danny8 said: So how are things looking in the UP @weatherbo and @wishforsnow? Any trails open at all? I'm sure trails in general are in bad shape like most of the UP but here, off the beaten path, two tracks are still snow covered and wooded areas have between 8-11 inches. Took these photos yesterday after things froze back up... 9 inches here at the house, but this area had some of the deepest snow in Michigan at the peak of the winter blast with close to 3 feet otg. Didn't think a winter like this was possible in the UP. Haven't broken 100 inches yet with the total being somewhere around 75-80 inches imby. Did received an inch of snow overnight and this morning with temps today more seasonable in the low-20's. Upcoming clipper pattern can deliver some nice surprises too, but my hopes for deep winter conditions have faded substantially. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 10 Share Posted February 10 0.25" of rain, then 0.2" of snow the last couple days. Temps running seasonably warm with what looks to be more avg temps by next weekend. Very nice wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 11 Share Posted February 11 For some who have, or may wish to ever come skiing up along the North Shore, sad news. Lutsen's main lodge burned down last week. It was built in the 40's, and was a replacement from a fire back then, too. Lutsen's history is well over 100 years (since the late 1800's I believe). Just read it in our free local paper. I don't use social media, so I'm sure others knew long before I did. Fire Marshall is investigating, so at some point, should know what caused it. Not that skiing, or any winter sports is enjoying a good year this year. They will rebuild, but that will take time. How it will affect their operations in general. not sure, especially for next season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 2/10/2024 at 9:08 AM, Lightning said: I am not denying it is warm or data you have presented for these locations. I am expecting a lot more warmth records to fall in the years to come. But the statement of this being 1 in 1000 years is typical fear mongering type tactic. We are missing a good 800+ years of identical daily/moment by moment data to make this statement. In recent years these type of statements have been a lot more popular to use in the Meteorological world and many times it is disingenuous and intentionally used for as headline grabbing tactics. Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainsucks Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I think the March 2012 heatwave was at least a 1 in 4000-year weather event based on the studies I’ve read on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Chicago/O'Hare had a high temperature of 56° on Friday, which tied the record high temperature for the date of 56°, which was set in 1886. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 Pretty much through the end of the month according to 00z GFS. So going for one of the least snowiest Februaries the second year in a row is a lock. No surprise how February is turning out following a very cloudy January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Where’s the February will be rockin’ crowd? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 50 minutes ago, Chambana said: Where’s the February will be rockin’ crowd? BBQ at Hairy Palms 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 16 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Well, 1877-78 was always considered to be the warmest of record by far, including the pioneer era records at Fort Snelling dating back to 1820. So when there's more than 200 years of data, and it's beating the record by nearly 3F, I think 1 in 1000 is a reasonable estimate for a recurrence interval, no? There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now. I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 19 minutes ago, Brian D said: There's a possibility that the W sub experienced similar conditions back in the 1700's. Tree ring reconstruction of ENSO shows this. Data would be very nice, but it's all we have. And of course, other teleconnections need to be in play, as well, to get what we have now. I've had this chart for a few years. Sorry, don't remember where I saved it from. Not a big fan of tree ring data, but it can be useful sometimes. One of the 1850s winters was extremely mild, I think 1857-58? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Looks like advisory level snows across southern Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon. Another painful miss for the twin cities to maintain seasonal trends. I’ll go with 0.3” at the airport final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said: Looks like advisory level snows across southern Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon. Another painful miss for the twin cities to maintain seasonal trends. I’ll go with 0.3” at the airport final call. Where do you think the absolute lowest snowfall is so far this season in Minnesota? Do you think it's Twin Cities proper or somewhere else? I was thinking it might be somewhere South and West of the metro but there's really no first order stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Where do you think the absolute lowest snowfall is so far this season in Minnesota? Do you think it's Twin Cities proper or somewhere else? I was thinking it might be somewhere South and West of the metro but there's really no first order stations. Somewhere SW of the metro is the futility bullseye, some farm has probably seen ~2-4 of snowfall all winter. The official measuring site for Minneapolis is the airport which is just about smack dab in the middle of the metro - 7.3” season to date. The WFO office is in Chanhassen a suburb 22 miles SW of the airport. After a 100” season last year the WFO is sitting at 5.8” currently. The NWS map, while far from perfect, shows a broad area to my SW with under 6” accumulation to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: One of the 1850s winters was extremely mild, I think 1857-58? What I can glean from Ft Snelling written notes, Dec 1857 was mild, and Jan 1858 was too, but Feb turned cold. My monthly data charts confirm this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 hours ago, Chambana said: Where’s the February will be rockin’ crowd? Well there is always March right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Awesome these past few mornings!! Temps low 20s and sunny!! Wish I wasn't in the office today. I would take the dog for a wonderful morning walk like I have the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4.5-5" of snow has fallen overnight and still snowing. Was only expecting an inch or two. Might nickle and dime my way to 100 inches the next week or so. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Anybody take a look at the 6z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now