February 2024

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah. What a brutal stretch. Right on the south shore it’s been even longer, 3 winters in a row now. I do have faith in the my original call made at the beginning of the winter that February will produce our first warning level event right to the coast however. It was based mostly on nino climo and the tendency of our winters to be backloaded. 

I hope so too, hey we got a 6" snowstorm in late February in 2008, so it's definitely possible even in a mostly mild winter-- that was another brutal winter and that was the only snowfall of note that winter (that was also the winter when we had that horrible "Heavy Snow Warning" non event in January.)

There's also 1994-95, another very mild winter in an el nino that gave us a significant snowstorm in February.  I won't bring up 1982-83 or 2015-16 since those two analogs have been done to death lol.  I also think next winter could be much better because la ninas that come after el ninos usually are.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

I hope so too, hey we got a 6" snowstorm in late February in 2008, so it's definitely possible even in a mostly mild winter-- that was another brutal winter and that was the only snowfall of note that winter (that was also the winter when we had that horrible "Heavy Snow Warning" non event in January.)

 

That was on of the worst forecasts from the nws post 2000. I vividly remember watching the street light all night waiting for the change over that never happened. There was a slushy coating from about the northern state north however. 
I wouldn’t be surprised if we somehow strike out again for the rest of the winter and have a cold damp April, just to rub it in. But I’ll stick to my guns right now with a mid/late February at least advisory level event. 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That was on of the worst forecasts from the nws post 2000. I vividly remember watching the street light all night waiting for the change over that never happened. There was a slushy coating from about the northern state north however. 
I wouldn’t be surprised if we somehow strike out again for the rest of the winter and have a cold damp April, just to rub it in. But I’ll stick to my guns right now with a mid/late February at least advisory level event. 

I actually saved a screenshot from the radar from that storm because I saw the oddest thing (I don't know how many people remember this), but it was raining all around us and there was a small white bubble of snowfall over this area-- it didn't amount to much at all-- I think an inch or two at best-- but people driving in from other areas were wondering how the roads were a little white here while it was just raining everywhere else.  The white bubble went away after a few hours-- I remember a met saying it had something to do with heavier rates that changed it to snow here for a couple hours before it went right back to rain, so it was like a spring storm.  But it was still amusing to have it snowing here while it was raining at Morristown, NJ and all points north and west lol.  It was insignificant but it's something I still remember.

 

[LibertyBell]

That late February SWFE in 2008 was a bust in the positive direction, that was supposed to be a snow to rain event and it didn't change over until the very end when we had some drizzle to top off the 6-8 inches of snow we got.  I remember getting up at 3 am to see that and it was snowing so hard, I said to myself "This isn't changing over anytime soon." And it didn't, it snowed hard well into the morning and ended before noon as some drizzle.  The one significant snowfall that winter.

 

[bluewave]

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

 

 

 

[the_other_guy]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

 

 

 

Didnt I say this yesterday and get made fun of?

Just want to point that out

[lee59]

Well at least Arctic Sea Ice extent is doing better this year. (relatively speaking)

[EastonSN+]

Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing.

My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

 

 

 

no surprise at all..

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Didnt I say this yesterday and get made fun of?

Just want to point that out

The big difference is MUCH MORE sunshine this time (starting with this morning).

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

We are on track for the warmest first 2 weeks of February on record for the CONUS.

 

 

 

Chris, I think we should differentiate between mild and cloudy and warm and sunny, and this looks like much more of the warm and sunny variety, which we like

I wish long term forecasts made that differentiation too, because there's a big difference between the two.

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing.

My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.

 

we also have a major SSW to track!

[JustinRP37]

16 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

So the science is settled then. And while I don’t appreciate your tone it is indicative of those in your community who broadly paint people with my viewpoint in a negative light as being naïve or just plain stupid. While majority consensus doesn’t make something true I do take comfort in knowing that there are many scientists who disagree with your premise.

You believe that money doesn’t influence outcomes, that is naïve, in the 60’s cigarette companies paid doctors to say it’s ok for pregnant women to smoke. I really don’t know why I bother engaging in these conversations as they never produce any fruit. You believe In your religion and I will believe in mine. And one more thing, I won’t be bullied by the likes of you or anyone anywhere.

And you want me to believe that 0.04% of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere is the engine that’s driving “global warming” is absurd.


.

Yes, the sciences of climate change is pretty much settled. We have seen major temperature shifts in air and water in the past 100 years. You also have to realize that just 100 years ago we didn’t have internal combustion like we have now. It is vital to life, but the laws of thermodynamics are there. We are taking a buried energy source, burning it to do work, but that energy is still there after combustion, it is just in the atmosphere now instead of in the ground. Humans are very adaptable, but we have cause massive extinctions too. And we also have sea level rise to contend with which you can see in most coastal areas with sunny day flooding.

I always welcome people to science. I am glad to share lectures about these topics. Anyone can hit me up on DM to chat. As an environmental scientist, I try to teach from a perspective that shows the change in both a positive and negative light. We need fossil fuels to be where we are, but a change to a reduced carbon or carbon cycling future is much easier to obtain than we think. That said science is not political. Scientists don’t make policy, policy makers do and often with poor knowledge of the subject. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, JustinRP37 said:

Yes, the sciences of climate change is pretty much settled. We have seen major temperature shifts in air and water in the past 100 years. You also have to realize that just 100 years ago we didn’t have internal combustion like we have now. It is vital to life, but the laws of thermodynamics are there. We are taking a buried energy source, burning it to do work, but that energy is still there after combustion, it is just in the atmosphere now instead of in the ground. Humans are very adaptable, but we have cause massive extinctions too. And we also have sea level rise to contend with which you can see in most coastal areas with sunny day flooding.

I always welcome people to science. I am glad to share lectures about these topics. Anyone can hit me up on DM to chat. As an environmental scientist, I try to teach from a perspective that shows the change in both a positive and negative light. We need fossil fuels to be where we are, but a change to a reduced carbon or carbon cycling future is much easier to obtain than we think. That said science is not political. Scientists don’t make policy, policy makers do and often with poor knowledge of the subject. 

Yes, carbon neutral doesn't mean abandoning fossil fuels altogether, it means not adding more and balancing it out with carbon negative projects too.

We also need to move to biodegradable plastics and quickly.  This isn't just about the oceans, they're in our bodies too and causing organ damage.  I also saw a really sad documentary on PBS where plastic trash has made its way to the beaches in Africa and Elephants are having to pick through plastic trash to find their food.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

we also have a major SSW to track!

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

I just hope we're not talking about a repeat of March 2014.

March 2015 would be far preferable.

 

[TJW014]

Nice to finally see the sun again this morning. Sunrise was beautiful

[the_other_guy]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yeah it looks good on multiple fronts. We typically do better when we have some SE ridging. 

This looks like a scenario where DC, Baltimore and possibly Philly have above average snowfall. Especially if the GEFS is right. EPS is stronger in phase 8, hence the difference in the maps.

Typical Nino and even though small, that has been patter for the winter thus far.

 

Probably a safe bet for you.

[weatherpruf]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

We discussed the origin and fate of the universe, mass extinctions, organic farming and climate change lol.  "Only in New York (subforum)" would you get such a diversity of discussion lol -- especially when the sun hasn't been out in about a week and there hasn't been any significant snow in over 2 years.

 

And cockroaches. 

[LibertyBell]

25 minutes ago, TJW014 said:

Nice to finally see the sun again this morning. Sunrise was beautiful

Yes I took pictures of it, the rosy clouds were quite beautiful and multilayered.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

And cockroaches. 

Yes those too, glad we didn't delve deeper into that or else I would have mentioned my fear of centipedes (which we do sometimes get around here) and wolf spiders as well as jumping spiders.  I saw one the size of my knee cap and it jumped up on my knee....I think the whole block heard my scream that summer lol

 

[IrishRob17]

1 hour ago, lee59 said:

Well at least Arctic Sea Ice extent is doing better this year. (relatively speaking)

 

 

[lee59]

10 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

 

From what I read, the average sea ice extent this year is ahead of the 2010s average. Not saying it will stay that way but at least it is a little positive news.

[North and West]

Nice to finally see the sun again this morning. Sunrise was beautiful

Cloudy and grey here.


.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Still looks good and not pushed back. All three models are in basic alignment. I will try to post the 14th every day to track timing.

My gut feeling - just like the last round I believe the Middle Atlantic and possibly southeast will benefit the most. Just a hunch. We would benefit from a little more se ridging.

That trough hanging back near the Baja would potentially act as a kicker favoring the main storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. That’s what the long range EPS indicates for mid to late February. But it only takes one to stray a little further north for NYC to break its under 2” streak. 
 

 

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That trough hanging back near the Baja would potentially act as a kicker favoring the main storm track across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. That’s what the long range EPS indicates for mid to late February. But it only takes one to stray a little further north for NYC to break its under 2” streak. 
 

 

Is this why we rarely get hit by thread the needles..... the midatlantic storms go south of here and the northeast storms go north of here.

 

We're not in the midatlantic and we're not in the northeast.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, North and West said:

Cloudy and grey here.


.

the sun is playing hide and seek lol

[EastonSN+]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this why we rarely get hit by thread the needles..... the midatlantic storms go south of here and the northeast storms go north of here.

 

We're not in the midatlantic and we're not in the northeast.

I know everyone hates it but that was the theme before 2000, warm and wet/cold and dry (basically January).

I mentioned before, I would really love for someone to do an analysis on why 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 were so snowy and had the majority of our KUs (as opposed to pre 1955 and 1970 through 1999). 

The obvious answer is we witnessed more blocking, and the mean trough was in the east rather than the west. However, would like to know what drove that setup. Water temps? Solar? 

[jm1220]

16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this why we rarely get hit by thread the needles..... the midatlantic storms go south of here and the northeast storms go north of here.

 

We're not in the midatlantic and we're not in the northeast.

We can get blasted by both types of storms-ones that favor New England and ones that favor the Mid Atlantic but also get totally boned when they just miss. It’s the pro/con of living in the transitional climate area between both regions we do. 

[jm1220]

21 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I know everyone hates it but that was the theme before 2000, warm and wet/cold and dry (basically January).

I mentioned before, I would really love for someone to do an analysis on why 55 through 69 and 2000 through 2018 were so snowy and had the majority of our KUs (as opposed to pre 1955 and 1970 through 1999). 

The obvious answer is we witnessed more blocking, and the mean trough was in the east rather than the west. However, would like to know what drove that setup. Water temps? Solar? 

Definitely not in a position to assert one way or the other but most of our really prolific setups had help from the Pacific. It also helps that the Atlantic warmed somewhat which added moisture to the big snow events we got. Now that the Pacific seems to have entered a -PDO, Nina-like long term state with practically boiling waters off Japan and Indonesia, it’s a lot less favorable for us and we see the West get continually dumped on with snow and cold.