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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread


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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.

Good…we did fine without it for a long time.  Very Overrated imo.  Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances.
 

 Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that.  

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Especially after next year we are going to enter into a stretch of a few years that will not feature much high latitude blocking at all IMO, so the extra tropical Pacific needs to improve.

NNE should Be fine next winter with the Nina. It obviously can’t get any worst than this winter for that area. 
 

We are probably cooked down here if the PAC doesn’t improve 

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It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. 
 

We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. 
 

For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s pretty easy to empirically check these spring claims. The mean temp increase for April/May since the middle 20th century is about 2F. 
 

We’ve definitely warmed. But in shorter timelines it will be a lot noisier. If you start from 12-15 years ago, then we have cooled in spring because we had some furnace springs like 2010, 2012, and even 2015 was a warm one after the historically cold Jan-Mar period. 
 

For anyone who grew up in the 1970s/1980s/1990s, they will remember colder springs because that period was colder than any period recently, individual years not withstanding. Unless you’re memory is etched in 1991 which was a record warm spring in many spots. 

Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June.

Nuts.

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11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Good…we did fine without it for a long time.  Very Overrated imo.  Let’s improve the pacific some, and take our chances.
 

 Hard to tell at this point how next year will unfold..let alone anything after that.  

Overrated, Yes. But I would still rather have it all things being equal.

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12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I know Cosgrove and Dick Tolleris had been going big winter . Did they ever pull the plug on that idea or sink in their ship? 

DT pulled the plug like a week or two ago....last year he pulled the plug in December....he is more focused on data interpreation than long range predicitng, though.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

90s were cold too. I remember that well. But man the 00s had some horrific ones. 2003 and 2005 will forever be remembered as complete disasters.

2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

2005 was the worst...I remmber that May, I was commuting my first year at UML...it was a blustery nor' easter with temps in the 40s like every weekend.

40s and a wicked nor'easter for Memorial Day weekend. April 2003 had days of like snow/sleet/FZDZ. It was crazy. 

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Warm spring, and I still had some snow piles around town in June.

Nuts.

Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. :lol:
 

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor.

Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. 

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if that had been more like a 2018 or 2020 spring we prob would’ve had regular pack into the 3rd week of April. :lol:
 

Yeah we def want to root for high ACE. But even if it isn’t, I won’t be terrified of La Niña. I’d like to see some changes in the N PAC in terms of getting ridging more poleward but we can get good La Niña even without a ton of blocking. 2007-08 and 2016-17 are two relatively recent examples. 

That's the thing...I think they are related....that and La Nina orientation in stronger events factors in.

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We've had some weird cold shots in these recent Mays, people.  I've seen and/or heard of snow being reported across multiple Mays since the year 2000, waay vastly more often than I ever did growing up in the 1970s and 1980s.

That's not gaslight-able otherwise.

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It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 

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Nice GFS -enhanced hallucination off the EC in the chaos range.

That whole entangled train wreck out there is completely fabricated by the physical processing emergence - there's no identifiable feed into that sytem, and given the total envelope of environmental, and modeled synoptic parameters, there's very little credence to a spontaneous cyclone driven by oceanic heat, either.

This model just cannot leave ridges alone.  This run exposes big brother constantly flicking ears.

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

He seems to just blow a lot of smoke in general 

Well, like I said....especially in season, he doesn't offer alot of speculation on the extended range that exceeds simple data inrepretation....once the data changes, he will change...just admits he doesn't "know if its right". He is more a medium range guy.

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51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Assuming a high ACE/La Nina, really the only subpar season is 1998-1999...and once you get above 200 ACE they are all decent...2005-2006 probably being the floor.

2005-06 was a pretty low floor, with almost no snow after Jan 31.  Among 389 met winter months at the Farmington co-op, only Dec 1999 had less snow than the 1.1" of Feb 06.

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35 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

It's hard to judge springs off just temps too. Before full leaf out we can still pull some better rad nights. In SNH, we could pull 70/34 on May 1 and it's solidly BN, but real nice during the day. Have to use a combo of temps and precip to get the full picture 

Yeah that is true. You can occasionally have a really nice spring that was still normal or chilly in the mean temps, but lots of sun. Though often the precip will drive down departures in the spring. Esp the later into spring we get….clouds and precip blocking out a May sun angle really helps keep temps down. 
 

If you look at the 2000-2009 composite, it was very wet in those springs which probably helped drive the departures down. In the past decade, our springs have run significantly drier than that 2000s decade. 

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Great winter for Leo and I. No complaints from this region. Started slow. December was crap. Whiffed on the big storms in January and was bare ground until the last week of the month, then gang busters. 52" between Jan 24th - Feb 24th. Have had a two foot snowpack for several weeks. I am just shy of normal of 72". Light years better than last winter here. Even in decent patterns, there are winners and losers'. No guarantees. 

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