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Jan 15-16 Storm Threat Thread: The Return of Hope??


stormtracker
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I am shocked by the AFD for Blacksburg waking up. Doesn’t even mention the word snow for Monday night Tuesday time frame only “precipitation”. One of the more odd short term discussions I’ve seen from them. All short term model guidance looks great for good part of the sub forum. That’s ok though every time they don’t honk we end over achieving. Let’s reel in an accumulating snowfall for the first time in a long time!!

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If the 6z GFS has the right idea this could end up a 2-4" deal across the region. Surface temps are dicey on the CMC SE of the fall line with precip ongoing Tuesday, and the NAMs bring the 850 0c line right up to the fall line. Could be mixy/end as rain for eastern areas in that case. GFS and Euro imply all snow with temps around 32-33 towards the end for the lowlands. NW areas probably end up with better ratios with temps staying a bit colder. PSU will probably get his 6.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z GEFS pretty closely matches the op, which is expected especially at this range. Looking at the individual members, I would probably rather be on the NW side of that max snow area.

1705471200-9dVCFPzE1lg.png

Are there any silly upside members in the bunch?  5 inch lollies?  

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1 hour ago, Buddy1987 said:

I am shocked by the AFD for Blacksburg waking up. Doesn’t even mention the word snow for Monday night Tuesday time frame only “precipitation”. One of the more odd short term discussions I’ve seen from them. All short term model guidance looks great for good part of the sub forum. That’s ok though every time they don’t honk we end over achieving. Let’s reel in an accumulating snowfall for the first time in a long time!!

I’ve noticed this as well, it seems like this MET is new to the office. I don’t think this person likes commenting on snow, I noticed this on the last disturbance last week. 

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If the 6z GFS has the right idea this could end up a 2-4" deal across the region. Surface temps are dicey on the CMC SE of the fall line with precip ongoing Tuesday, and the NAMs bring the 850 0c line right up to the fall line. Could be mixy/end as rain for eastern areas in that case. GFS and Euro imply all snow with temps around 32-33 towards the end for the lowlands. NW areas probably end up with better ratios with temps staying a bit colder. PSU will probably get his 6.

Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours.
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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:


Could be a mini jack somewhere in between. NW enough for better temps, SE enough for precip. Dare I say HoCo- BalCo area? Been looking that way on a lot of guidance over the past 24 hours.

Agree, the jack might be just NW/NE of Balt. 

My area will be cold enough but maybe too far W to jack. Still seems good for 1-3” if the models are right

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