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Monitoring some form of significant ( to be determined more precisely) impact winter storm, Jan 16/17th. Moderate seems to be the upper limit - for now

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

7-10 days ago, The ceiling was quite high.

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-14" over E/SNE

We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well.

Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. 

I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack. 

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I just cleaned up this thread…what an embarrassment for some of you. Act like you’ve posted on the forums before and didn’t just get here from accuwx forums.   This is still a storm thread.

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

If people want to act like children and complain about every threat, they can do it elsewhere. There are still people who log on here to read about the meteorology and actual model discussion of a thr

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

It’s actually trended better since 00z but this forum has become an unreadable dumpster fire. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-1e.4" over E/SNE

We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well.

Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. 

I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack. 

Depends on if one even has a pack left. I had slightly over 13 inches (13.3"), without doing the 6 hour measuring method last storm and now have nothing but some very small mounts left, So not so sure of a pack than those very well far northwest of here.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Yeah, this past Wednesday/Thursday the mean on the EC was a huge swath of 6" across most of New England. Some of the OP runs we're pretty nice and had 8-14" over E/SNE

We were looking at potentially a region wide 6-10" event or more but then things quickly fell apart and over the past couple days we've been looking at 1-3" deal (with some very good globals having nothing more than snow showers) then the possibility of 3-5" over some of SNE if things pan out well.

Expectations fell to the floor and have been recently rising a tick or two. 

I think a lot of us are watching and are invested in this because 1) this winter has been complete garbage so far, so anything feels like a win and 2) we've got a solid cold shot after the storm to keep the "pack" intact and 3) a potentially significant storm on the horizon for the 20th to add to said pack. 

Good post. :thumbsup:

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i was referencing pack POST the Tuesday storm.

I did pretty decent last Sunday…close to 8”, 4 more and I tie last years abomination of a winter.  I know your area didn’t do as well last week…so hoping this one gets you back in the game. And we all can have some fun. 

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I did pretty decent last Sunday…close to 8”, 4 more and I tie last years abomination of a winter.  I know your area didn’t do as well last week…so hoping this one gets you back in the game. And we all can have some fun. 

terrible. total bust, at least for mby and most of new haven county which we had in the 5-10" range away from the shore. ended up with 3.3"

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted
Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

terrible. total bust, at least for mby and most of new haven county which we had in the 5-10" range away from the shore. ended up with 3.3"

It was brutal in the southern part of the state. It actually hurt seeing the final numbers there. 

I barely verified here. Back end saved me. 

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Id be absolutely shocked if the ECMWF doesn't come NW, a solid jump, at least...not a tick. And we are now approaching 24hrs....12Z it was well SE of the BM and 18Z pretty much right over the BM. 

Caved.

65a4ca7bde255.png

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Gotta think with that depiction that we get more qpf further west. 925s are dicey in SE despite cold temps. 

yeah, obviously way warmer with that kind of track. 925s and 850s move up into SE SNE. Coastal and SE sections will likely flip, but i think were fine here, at least with that soln verbatim. 

 

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-t850-5428000.png

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-t925-5428000.png

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

Posted
Posted

I believe this one will overperform and give widespread 5-8 in snowfalls, local 8-12 near Gulf of maine north of BOS. 

Reason is cold air will also overperform setting up ahead of sliding frontal wave, and force it to develop a bit more. Temps will be 18-22 F during snow any distance inland and 24-28 F near coast. Only Cape Cod and islands will see any taint or mixing. 

Not that 5-8 inches is any big deal, but whatevs. 

Also, look for several big storms in Feb and march , this winter is going to become more intense. I believe the polar conveyor belt (NNW-SSE) is setting up for repeated delivery, and Pacific will fight back enough to knock it eastward so that it isn't wasted on my part of the world at all. It looks like a sort of 2008 blend with 2010 and a bit of the old 1888. Watch out for march 10-12. Not saying it will never turn warm, but warm spells will be very brief and quickly flushed out. 

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