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January 13-17 (and beyond?) Cold Wave


Geoboy645
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The models have been in pretty good agreement for the last couple days that after the big storm on Friday and Saturday, we could get a legit cold wave for at least the early part of next week. Some runs have had temps as low as the -20s for overnight lows. And while it doesn't look like wind will be quite as big of a factor at this point compared to January 2019, WC's will still probably be within warning criteria as well. Whatever areas max out on snow from this weekend, especially if they maxed out on snow yesterday, could really get down in temperature. 

image0.jpg

sfctapp-imp.png

 

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:thumbsup:

Copying this over from the January thread...

The cold air is on the move...you don't often see a Wind Chill Watch for 3+ days in length. 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

NEZ042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-101645-
/O.NEW.KOAX.WC.Y.0001.240112T0600Z-240112T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KOAX.WC.A.0001.240113T0000Z-240116T1800Z/
/O.CON.KOAX.WS.A.0002.240111T2100Z-240113T0000Z/
Platte-Colfax-Dodge-Washington-Butler-Saunders-Douglas-Sarpy-
Seward-Lancaster-Cass-Otoe-Saline-Jefferson-Gage-Johnson-Pawnee-
Including the cities of Blair, Wahoo, La Vista, Papillion, David
City, Sterling, Fairbury, Table Rock, Beatrice, Yutan, Crete,
Fremont, Columbus, Pawnee City, Bellevue, Ashland, Nebraska City,
Lincoln, Wilber, Plattsmouth, Tecumseh, Milford, Seward, Omaha,
and Schuyler
243 AM CST Wed Jan 10 2024

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
NOON CST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as
  high as 35 mph, leading to areas of blowing snow. For the Wind
  Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low
  as 20 below zero. For the Wind Chill Watch, dangerously cold wind
  chills possible. Wind chills as low as 40 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast, and southeast
  Nebraska.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Watch, from Thursday afternoon through
  Friday afternoon. For the Wind Chill Advisory, from midnight
  Thursday Night to noon CST Friday. For the Wind Chill Watch, from
  Friday evening through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact daily commutes Thursday and Friday. The
  dangerously cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin
  in as little as 10 minutes.
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1 minute ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. 

Would be the 4th longest streak of sub-zero on record (behind Dec 1983, Feb 1996, Jan 1982 and surpassing Jan 2019). 

And while this is likely overdone, 12z GEM at hour 96 has a pixel of -63F in south-central Alberta.

sfct-imp.conus.png

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3 minutes ago, madwx said:

hoping for some sunshine.  This is the most climatologically favored time of the year for this cold so not expecting any records

Yeah that's what I'm looking forward to as well considering I think we have maybe had 6-8hrs of sunshine since December 19th. But yeah this is basically right on schedule for our cold waves so there really won't be any records I don't think. It'd be nice to actually have a cold wave like this on January 15th though, feels like its been a while since we have had that. 

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40 minutes ago, roardog said:

Pray for the palms.

The only positive thing from this is that they could be killed, and the crowd would rejoice

Seriously though going from what we are now to this without snow would be pretty lousy

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1 minute ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

At least the lack of snowcover will moderate temps somewhat here. Monday is looking frigid but still warm enough to work outside, company policy is air temp of -10F or below we stay inside. 

That would be the one benefit. I think my companies policy is 0F and below. Or if wind chill is -20F and below. My work tablet probably won’t work right on Tuesday with that cold.

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Just now, SolidIcewx said:

That would be the one benefit. I think my companies policy is 0F and below. Or if wind chill is -20F and below. My work tablet probably won’t work right on Tuesday with that cold.

I’ll have to double check but I believe our WC criteria is -30F. We were supposed to switch to tablets years ago but they are still sitting on my supervisors desk, honestly I prefer using paper, I can keep my gloves on.

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1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

I had mentioned this in another thread, but the 12z GFS has ORD below zero for 60 straight hours, and under freezing until at least 1/25. 

The Euro is on board with that. The run ends below zero again. :shiver:

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Yep, snap of bitter cold air. Min's on this chart should be about right. Winds should keep air mixed. If they go calm, daybreak temps plummet quick, but I don't think that'll be the case this time around with the forecast pressure gradient. Wind chills the big factor. A calm -30 is easier to deal with than -30 wind chill. Wind like a knife. Hurts. :( 

Cold snap.gif

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The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought.  From NWS Great Falls, for posterity.  Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning.
Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along with
dangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of the
overnight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included in
our original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidity
values, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustments
were made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates are
necessary, at this time.
- Fogleman

&&

.AVIATION...
624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period)

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS.

Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period,
causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/or
blowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds are
forecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of this
TAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, with
surface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAF
period.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/
Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure is
sliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. The
arctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin County
to southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespread
light snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snow
should slowly push southward along the arctic during the
afternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to see
widespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow will
continue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Friday
morning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on the
lighter side. However, current radar and surface observations show
that there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Since
liquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snow
accumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to see
between 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lower
Rocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region where
the Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic front
pushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow should
begin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountains
and southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Friday
afternoon.

The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is the
extreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening wind
chills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturday
morning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous wind
chills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into an
effect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and Wind
Chill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morning
are expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North Central
MT. -Wilson

Friday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough and
associated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially life
threatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of North
Central, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through the
period. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on the
order of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWF
EFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are in
excess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North Central
Montana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the Northern
Rockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreak
through the period; with the potential for not only new record low
minimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, but
also new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight low
temperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturday
morning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zero
across the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and Great
Falls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zero
reports occur over this timeframe and overall location given the
forecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide south
along the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecasted
high temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10
degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lows
generally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I can
not emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone who
is not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Wind
chill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expected
expected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, with
the coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening through
Saturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for your
vehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short trips
could become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and you
are unprepared. - Moldan
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The cold is ending up even more impressive than originally thought.  From NWS Great Falls, for posterity.  Forecast low tonight in Cut Bank, MT is -43...the forecast was in the -30s earlier today.
Area Forecast DiscussionNational Weather Service Great Falls MT837 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024.SYNOPSIS...Snow continues to fall across the state through tomorrow morning.Extreme cold temperatures settle in for the weekend along withdangerous wind chills. Cold temperatures linger into next week.&&.UPDATE...With this evening`s forecast update, I lowered some of theovernight mountain temperatures a bit more than those included inour original forecast. Further, I increased relative humidityvalues, especially for southwest Montana. Only minor adjustmentswere made to wind speed/gusts values. No further updates arenecessary, at this time.- Fogleman&&.AVIATION...624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024 (12/00Z TAF Period)Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages thefollowing TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS.Winter weather impacts aviation during this 12/00Z TAF period,causing airfields to fall into MVFR/IFR/LIFR ranges, in snow and/orblowing snow or mist/freezing fog. Periods of gusty winds areforecast. Mountain obscuration continues for the duration of thisTAF period. Dangerously cold temperatures impact aviation ops, withsurface temperatures reaching as low as 35 below during this TAFperiod.- FoglemanRefer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weatherand hazard information.&&.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 624 PM MST Thu Jan 11 2024/Rest of today through Friday morning...A surface low pressure issliding to the southeast along the western MT/ID border. Thearctic front is currently draped along the middle Gallatin Countyto southern Powell county corridor. Current radar shows widespreadlight snow across Western, Central, North Central MT. The snowshould slowly push southward along the arctic during theafternoon and evening. Southwest Montana should begin to seewidespread snow move in during the evening. Widespread snow willcontinue to fall across the CWA through tonight and into Fridaymorning. Snowfall across the lower elevations will remain on thelighter side. However, current radar and surface observations showthat there can be some moderate snow banding at times. Sinceliquid precipitation is low and snow ratios are high, total snowaccumulations remain low. Lower elevations are forecasted to seebetween 1-3" of snow. The heavier snow will fall along the lowerRocky Mountain Front and the Gates of the Mountains region wherethe Winter Storm Warning remains on track. As the arctic frontpushes south overnight into Friday morning, widespread snow shouldbegin to end north to south. Snow will push out of the mountainsand southwest Montana late Friday morning and clear out by Fridayafternoon.The main concern for the short term forecast this weekend is theextreme cold temperatures and dangerous to life threatening windchills. Temperatures will continue to steadily fall through Saturdaymorning. With winds sustaining between 15-20mph, dangerous windchills are the main impact. The Wind Chill Warning comes into aneffect this evening for Central and North Central Montana and WindChill advisories for Southwestern MT. Overnight lows Friday morningare expected to reach 20 to 35 below in Central and North CentralMT. -WilsonFriday through Sunday...A highly anomalous H500 trough andassociated Arctic airmass will bring dangerous, and potentially lifethreatening, cold temperatures and wind chills to all of NorthCentral, Central, and portions of Southwest Montana through theperiod. NAEFS return intervals for H850-700 temperatures are on theorder of 30 years to even outside of the climatological range. ECMWFEFI values with respect to both high and low temperatures are inexcess of 0.95 across all of Southwest through North CentralMontana, with a shift of tails of 0 to 1 across most of the NorthernRockies. This all translates into a highly impactful cold outbreakthrough the period; with the potential for not only new record lowminimum temperatures to be established at numerous climate site, butalso new record low maximum temperatures. Overnight lowtemperatures, particularly from Friday night through Saturdaymorning, have a 30-60% chance of exceeding 40 degrees below zeroacross the Golden Triangle (i.e. between Cut Bank, Havre, and GreatFalls). I would not be surprised if a couple of 50 degree below zeroreports occur over this timeframe and overall location given theforecasted surface high of ~1045mb to 1050mb expected to slide southalong the Canadian Rockies and over Northern Montana. Forecastedhigh temperatures over the timeframe are unlikely to exceed 10degrees below zero north of the I-90 corridor, with overnight lowsgenerally dipping into the 20 to 40 degree below zero range. I cannot emphasis how dangerous it will be to be outside for anyone whois not dressed properly or becomes stranded while traveling. Windchill values of 40 to nearly 70 degrees below zero are expectedexpected north of the I-90 corridor at times through Sunday, withthe coldest wind chills expected to occur from this evening throughSaturday morning. If you must travel, have an emergency kit for yourvehicle and keep the gas tank as full as possible. Even short tripscould become life threatening if your vehicle breaks down and youare unprepared. - Moldan


Ice fog levels of cold
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Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around -49. Wind chill values as low as -65. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Sunny and cold, with a high near -23. Wind chill values as low as -70. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -44. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -34. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
M.L.King Day
Sunny and cold, with a high near -7. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
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53 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Forecast for Havre, MT. Current record low for January 13th is -35F set in 1997, which will be obliterated. Records go back to the late 1800s. All-time record low is -57F set on 1/27/1916. Normal for the date is 28/7.

Tonight
Partly cloudy, with a low around -49. Wind chill values as low as -65. West southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.
Saturday
Sunny and cold, with a high near -23. Wind chill values as low as -70. West southwest wind around 6 mph becoming east in the afternoon.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around -44. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 7 mph.
Sunday
Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -20. Wind chill values as low as -60. East northeast wind around 6 mph becoming calm.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -34. West wind 5 to 7 mph.
M.L.King Day
Sunny and cold, with a high near -7. West southwest wind 8 to 10 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around -23. Southwest wind 7 to 9 mph.

Wow, -70 wind chills?  That'd be like -100 on the old wind chill calculation lol.  Wow.

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48 minutes ago, DaveNay said:

Is it just me, or does the intensity and duration of the cold seems to be easing back a bit in the models?

I attributed some of it to the lack of snow cover.  Almost every deep cold event I can remember included a snowpack and not bare ground.  

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11 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Wow, -70 wind chills?  That'd be like -100 on the old wind chill calculation lol.  Wow.

Actually, the new scale is a bit colder for very light winds (>5 mph) and probably inflates the value to be honest. A wind of 4 or 5 mph at 10 meters is probably dead calm at ground level. It was only at winds greater 10 mph, and especially 20-30 mph, that the old scale really went off the rails. It does look like there were winds around 10-15 mph earlier in the night, with temps in the mid negative 30s, so peak wind chills on the old scale probably would have been like -80, maybe -85.

Heres a good comparison:

https://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/opinion/columns/safety-on-the-roads-by-dave-werner/2016/12/wind-chill-values-revised-in-2001/
 

You can see at -40 with 5 mph winds, under the old scale the chill would be -47 whereas it’s -57 under the new scale. The old was actually probably somewhat more realistic under light wind conditions. You can also see under the old scale, at -40, you would still need sustained winds of about 22 or 23 mph to reach around -100F chills.

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