Another intense Great Lakes storm late Friday 1/12 with the brunt of 1" rain/shore gusts ~50 MPH Friday night, followed by widespread west gusts 40- possibly 50 MPH late Sat-Sun 1/13-14/2024. This serves as the OBS thread late Fri onward.

[wdrag]

The modeled next powerful storm into the Great Lakes region should add around another inch of rain in 6-12 hours Friday night, possibly causing renewed urban, basement and small stream flooding and probably extending on-going mainstem flooding in the NYCsubforum through the weekend. Maximum south-southeast coastal gusts possibly capped around 50 MPH along the shore Friday night but when the storm gets into Canada, backside westerly gusts might hit 50 MPH anywhere in the NYC subforum for brief periods of time later Saturday into Sunday.   So some power outages are possible.  

Coastal flooding does not appear to be a large threat.

Snow-sleet-freezing rain is anticipated at the start Friday afternoon-evening along the I84 corridor bordering the northwest portion of NYC subforum with "possible" short duration amounts generally 1/2-2" mainly in the high terrain above roughly 1000 feet.  I84 corridor valleys, probably little or no accumulation. 

Max rainfall from this storm maybe ~2'? 

This thread will also serve as the OBS thread for this anticipated event. 

[wdrag]

 

This continues more or less as outlined with small variations and generally less rain but that rain pushes some of the mainstream rivers into potentially higher stages.  another nighttime potent event. 

[nycsnow]

Another strong storm likely impacts the region late Friday into
Saturday with another round of moderate to heavy rainfall, and
strong, to potentially damaging winds, along with a coastal flooding
threat.

Another southern stream trough will be moving onshore of the Pacific
northwest midweek and track across the country, reaching toward the
Great Lakes Region late in the week. With some of the global
guidance the upper trough is becoming more negatively tilted during
Friday, keeping the surface low a little farther to the west. Timing
of the heaviest rainfall and highest winds remains Friday night into
Saturday as a low level jet of 50-70kts moves through the region.
Also, an occluded low will be moving over the region late Friday
night into Saturday morning. Strong lift, and some instability,
along with elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg will allow for a chance of
thunderstorms. Precipitable waters also increases late Friday night,
up to 1.35 inches, and a period of moderate to heavy rainfall
remains possible. The is the potential for another flooding event as
WPC has placed most of the area in a slight risk for excessive
rainfall. Finally, with the strong winds another high wind event is
also becoming more likely. While there are a few days until the
onset of this storm impacts are becoming more likely.

[wdrag]

So, Some customers in NJ, PA, NYS:  power, I can see problems for a few customers having no power into next Monday the 15th, because of renewed power outages Fri night, and the weekend west winds will be 5-10 MPH more blustery than what we see today (near 40 MPH) gusts here and there today. 

[wdrag]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

So, Some customers in NJ, PA, NYS:  power, I can see problems for a few customers having no power into next Monday the 15th, because of renewed power outages Fri night, and the weekend west winds will be 5-10 MPH more blustery than what we see today (near 40 MPH) gusts here and there today. 

Example of ensembles Passaic mainstream at Pine Brook with the 1" rain raising the river stage even higher this weekend, 

[nycsnow]

Saturated grounds, trees taking a beating this week won’t take much to cause problems 

[NJwx85]

06z globals pretty locked in on another 1-2" areawide, however it looks like SNE might take the brunt of it instead of us.

[nycsnow]

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

06z globals pretty locked in on another 1-2" areawide, however it looks like SNE might take the brunt of it instead of us.

Models also showing 50-60mph winds which will add up trees are taking a beating 

[uofmiami]

7 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Models also showing 50-60mph winds which will add up trees are taking a beating 

Thankfully no foliage or else damage would be a lot worse. Just been little branches breaking off mostly. 

[Brian5671]

5 hours ago, uofmiami said:

Thankfully no foliage or else damage would be a lot worse. Just been little branches breaking off mostly. 

some of the dead wood fell during the Dec storms too...not much fell around here last night....

[uofmiami]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

some of the dead wood fell during the Dec storms too...not much fell around here last night....

Saw a tree with severe rot in the trunk split in two on way to work in someone's front yard in Oyster Bay Cove.  Otherwise, I think most of the dead wood, etc fell in prior Dec storms.

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

some of the dead wood fell during the Dec storms too...not much fell around here last night....

Yeah my worries didn't pan out either. Hopefully the weakest are already down. 

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/01102024_pmPUBLIC.pdf

[Will - Rutgers]

12 hours ago, nycsnow said:

Precipitable waters also increases late Friday night,
up to 1.35 inches,

[WestBabylonWeather]

we had some pretty strong winds last night - seemed as bad as august 2020 and we had minimal tree damage

 

so friday : bring it on

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

we had some pretty strong winds last night - seemed as bad as august 2020 and we had minimal tree damage

 

so friday : bring it on

All the storms over the last 10-15 years knocked all the weak trees down. In Long Beach, all number of powerful storms especially Sandy knocked every tall tree down and everything is new or smaller, and some of those were knocked over but those thankfully don’t topple the power lines with them. As for Friday it looks like a weaker version of yesterday’s storm but of course any rain is beyond unwelcome and will raise the river levels again just as they recede from crest. This is the stormiest winter I can remember so far which you would expect in a strong Nino but it seems especially severe. Hopefully we can time cold air with one or two of these and they can take a good track. Cutters like these are definitely unusual in a strong Nino. 

[WestBabylonWeather]

Just now, jm1220 said:

All the storms over the last 10 years knocked all the weak trees down. In Long Beach, all number of powerful storms especially Sandy knocked every tall tree down and everything is new or smaller, and some of those were knocked over but those thankfully don’t topple the power lines with them. As for Friday it looks like a weaker version of yesterday’s storm but of course any rain is beyond unwelcome and will raise the river levels again just as they recede from crest. This is the stormiest winter I can remember so far which you would expect in a strong Nino but it seems especially severe. Hopefully we can time cold air with one or two of these and they can take a good track. Cutters like these are definitely unusual in a strong Nino. 

i said the same thing. the trees that were going to fall in 70 mile winds fell in 2020. we had extensive damage. last night wasnt as bad. 

[SRRTA22]

Also gotta factor in , these trees definitely adapt , and with these stronger winds, they're definitely growing stronger roots 

[Will - Rutgers]

1 hour ago, SRRTA22 said:

Also gotta factor in , these trees definitely adapt , and with these stronger winds, they're definitely growing stronger roots 

survivorship bias / evolution in action maybe

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

All the storms over the last 10-15 years knocked all the weak trees down. In Long Beach, all number of powerful storms especially Sandy knocked every tall tree down and everything is new or smaller, and some of those were knocked over but those thankfully don’t topple the power lines with them. As for Friday it looks like a weaker version of yesterday’s storm but of course any rain is beyond unwelcome and will raise the river levels again just as they recede from crest. This is the stormiest winter I can remember so far which you would expect in a strong Nino but it seems especially severe. Hopefully we can time cold air with one or two of these and they can take a good track. Cutters like these are definitely unusual in a strong Nino. 

 Check out the beaches, it’s getting really really bad. These storms have these huge Se fetch components. Which build enormous high period swells. This next storm could be the knock out blow for allot of places, especially fire island. 

[wdrag]

Storm impacts possibly a little less than that of Tuesday night but am not convinced. Rainfall definitely less, but forces some of the small streams back into minor flood and the large mainstems - they may crest higher this weekend than what has already occurred.

Wind: ensembles and various models slightly less but not convinced.  Power outages develop west of the Apps and on the Apps ridges Friday afternoon then pockets of damaging wind in our area later Friday night.  

A touch of snow the first hour or two Poconos extreme nw NJ, Catskills-Litchfield Hills between 5 and 9PM Friday then the period of heavy rain. 

[NJwx85]

5 hours ago, wdrag said:

Storm impacts possibly a little less than that of Tuesday night but am not convinced. Rainfall definitely less, but forces some of the small streams back into minor flood and the large mainstems - they may crest higher this weekend than what has already occurred.

Wind: ensembles and various models slightly less but not convinced.  Power outages develop west of the Apps and on the Apps ridges Friday afternoon then pockets of damaging wind in our area later Friday night.  

A touch of snow the first hour or two Poconos extreme nw NJ, Catskills-Litchfield Hills between 5 and 9PM Friday then the period of heavy rain. 

Problem will be the Passaic River which is still rising and not forecasted to crest until late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Any additional rain will prolong the major flooding into early next week as indicated on the hydrograph predictions. 

[gravitylover]

My hill started pumping the water out overnight. It's spilling out of all the typical spots and a few new ones. The flow into my basement isn't as bad as last time, probably because of the new pressure relief valves  

I don't need or want any more rain. See what y'all can do to steer it away. Thanx. 

[rclab]

18 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My hill started pumping the water out overnight. It's spilling out of all the typical spots and a few new ones. The flow into my basement isn't as bad as last time, probably because of the new pressure relief valves  

I don't need or want any more rain. See what y'all can do to steer it away. Thanx. 

Gravity I’m not sure it will work in your situation but it helped when my daughters were young. Here’s hoping you stay dry, as always ….

 

[tdp146]

6 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

 Check out the beaches, it’s getting really really bad. These storms have these huge Se fetch components. Which build enormous high period swells. This next storm could be the knock out blow for allot of places, especially fire island. 

Everything I’ve seen from gilgo east is almost as bad as Sandy. Some of the drone footage I saw out of montuak might even be worse. 
 

I also just saw in Newsday that Suffolk county has asked the governor to declare a state of emergency there to open the door to federal funds. 
 

It’s tough because people see a named storm and the disaster declarations come immediately. They see “massive southeast fetch” and things are slow to happen. 

[weatherpruf]

Well, just poured the generator gas into the cars and left a bit for the smaller snowblower in case it snows sometime before April ( it started! But the prime pump is dry rotting ). Guess I should have waited. Gotta fill up the tanks again I guess.

[nycsnow]

Looks like winds will be in the 45-55mph range maybe 60

[nycsnow]

Nam showing 60-70mph wind gust and 80s off shore all is well in the world haha

[NJwx85]

28 minutes ago, nycsnow said:

Nam showing 60-70mph wind gust and 80s off shore all is well in the world haha

Same type of situation with a squall line feature that moves SW to NE.