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January 2024 -- Discussion


moneypitmike
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13 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

GFS coming in colder for the 13th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end

I remember the first several years I lived here we’d often do really well in cutters, with a good dose of snow to start followed by some drizzle and 38-40 degrees followed by a few inches of upslope to top it off. It made for a great base for getting glades open. Lately it seems like cutters just suck lol. Would be great to change that 

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21 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

GFS coming in colder for the 13th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end

What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well?

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well?

This run is mainly NNE. But there’s a chance it could still produce in SNE but it needs more work. 12z Euro actually had SNE in some front end snow. 

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well?

gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell

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5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell

I think there might be one for two or three days after that that could be a biggie for everyone... But we have time for that

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

You can see how this would be an excellent look with a very active PJ but still some ridging in the west despite absolute heights being BN in BC and PAC NWIMG_0015.png.d3af09577cddea15d7bf40c4e138f8f0.png

 

I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet.  Jesus -

Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that,  ... way before hand.  That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow.

I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting.   If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. 

It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible.  ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet.  Jesus -

Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that,  ... way before hand.  That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow.

I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting.   If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. 

It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible.  ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

This is just an ensemble mean. So I think you’d have plenty of members that have some oscillations in the severity of the PV press and the blocking itself. 
 

But my biggest worry is still too much PV loaded into the western half of Canada…id prefer a good chunk of it to break off and park itself in eastern Canada so we can have a good source of cold and confluence. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is just an ensemble mean. So I think you’d have plenty of members that have some oscillations in the severity of the PV press and the blocking itself. 
 

But my biggest worry is still too much PV loaded into the western half of Canada…id prefer a good chunk of it to break off and park itself in eastern Canada so we can have a good source of cold and confluence. 

GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back

IMG_4088.thumb.gif.effd011b43eaa2cd66f7e070ddf042d1.gif

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31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back

IMG_4088.thumb.gif.effd011b43eaa2cd66f7e070ddf042d1.gif

Yeah keep that trend going and then we can honk for the 1/14-1/22 period. But def high stakes until then…hopefully it doesn’t revert. 

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I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet.  Jesus -
Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that,  ... way before hand.  That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow.
I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting.   If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. 
It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible.  ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

I think the wave on the 13th has some potential. This was the 18z control (just showing as an example). That’s a decent UlL parked over the lakes. Roll it forward and I Wonder if it can fight off that wave and force it farther S/E 3e3a48ed00043f797ef644856dce19d0.jpg


Here was the 12z euro. I don’t think it would take too much to make this more favorable. Weaker main wave or better confluence. Maybe models adjust to the cosmic barrier

4f7c81fc191cb327383fa6a18d4cdc6e.jpg
94adcd53b29075bfbfe89e0f0ae0a8b2.jpg


.
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9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet.  Jesus -

Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that,  ... way before hand.  That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow.

I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting.   If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. 

It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible.  ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

I agree, John...said the same thing to Will yesterday...we are going to see some favorable adjustments IMO.

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A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin 

Right now we`re progged for a
roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings
showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this
point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize,
but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these
signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be
surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates
if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m
wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64
kts.
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin 

Right now we`re progged for a
roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings
showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this
point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize,
but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these
signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be
surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates
if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m
wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64
kts.

Was just going to post this... fun times ahead

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin 

Right now we`re progged for a
roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings
showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this
point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize,
but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these
signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be
surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates
if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m
wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64
kts.

no thread??  wow

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