H2Otown_WX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, NW_of_GYX said: dumps the core of the negative height anomalies further west as the block retrogrades Oh ok, that's an odd look to me but, what do I know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 GFS coming in colder for the 10th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 high doesn't retreat as fast and helps the cold press, similar to earlier runs before yesterdays melt. I expect this to waffle some more but today's trends are undeniable 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: GFS coming in colder for the 13th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end I remember the first several years I lived here we’d often do really well in cutters, with a good dose of snow to start followed by some drizzle and 38-40 degrees followed by a few inches of upslope to top it off. It made for a great base for getting glades open. Lately it seems like cutters just suck lol. Would be great to change that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: GFS coming in colder for the 13th, looks more like euro. Whites crushed on the front end What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well? This run is mainly NNE. But there’s a chance it could still produce in SNE but it needs more work. 12z Euro actually had SNE in some front end snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: What does it look like for the rest of the area? Is it just the northern New England deal or is it look like it could be something for Southern New England as well? gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13th no bueno verbatim but at this point just glad to see it there still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 5 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: gives the berks some front end snow but that's about it. Others have said that this is still worth watching for SNE but I would hedge against that. This one's for NNE IMO, and it may be for far NNE. time will tell I think there might be one for two or three days after that that could be a biggie for everyone... But we have time for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: You can see how this would be an excellent look with a very active PJ but still some ridging in the west despite absolute heights being BN in BC and PAC NW I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it ) This is just an ensemble mean. So I think you’d have plenty of members that have some oscillations in the severity of the PV press and the blocking itself. But my biggest worry is still too much PV loaded into the western half of Canada…id prefer a good chunk of it to break off and park itself in eastern Canada so we can have a good source of cold and confluence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This is just an ensemble mean. So I think you’d have plenty of members that have some oscillations in the severity of the PV press and the blocking itself. But my biggest worry is still too much PV loaded into the western half of Canada…id prefer a good chunk of it to break off and park itself in eastern Canada so we can have a good source of cold and confluence. GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: GEFS made another tick towards the EPS and GEPS, not hanging as much of the trough back Yeah keep that trend going and then we can honk for the 1/14-1/22 period. But def high stakes until then…hopefully it doesn’t revert. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )I think the wave on the 13th has some potential. This was the 18z control (just showing as an example). That’s a decent UlL parked over the lakes. Roll it forward and I Wonder if it can fight off that wave and force it farther S/E Here was the 12z euro. I don’t think it would take too much to make this more favorable. Weaker main wave or better confluence. Maybe models adjust to the cosmic barrier . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cmc with a huge storm next week along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Cmc with a huge storm next week along the coastRead my post above, sometimes I just feel it . . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Heisy said: Read my post above, sometimes I just feel it . . Gfs also trended better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Weenie OPs tonight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Just now, Heisy said: Weenie OPs tonight . Good enough on the gfs. Cmc has 2 storms to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Love seeing big dogs in the pipeline Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, Heisy said: Weenie OPs tonight . The GEPS don't agree with the OP to my untrained eye. Also the GFS was a huge cutter. I guess that's the risk we run with the trof axis so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it ) I agree, John...said the same thing to Will yesterday...we are going to see some favorable adjustments IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin Right now we`re progged for a roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize, but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64 kts. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin Right now we`re progged for a roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize, but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64 kts. Was just going to post this... fun times ahead 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I agree, John...said the same thing to Will yesterday...we are going to see some favorable adjustments IMO. For the 13-14th system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Thankfully we have the cutter coming up, not much else to track. Tomorrows light/moderate snow event is old hat x10, we need some novelty 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: A wild next 5 days enroute . Heavy snow heavy rain heavy wind heavy damage ..Sittin here .. just smilin Right now we`re progged for a roughly 40-70+ kt jet in place. On top of this GFS Bufkit soundings showing these winds only roughly 0.5-1 kft AGL! Not certain at this point how well we will mix as it will impact what gusts we realize, but the higher NBM seems justified at this juncture given these signals. Will likely need High Wind Watches for land. Would not be surprised if we need Hurricane Force Wind Watches in future updates if trends continue. At this point only have EPS guidance for 10m wind gust probs, but it progs low-mod (10-40%) probs of winds AOA 64 kts. no thread?? wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: no thread?? wow Fire her up ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 wow, speechless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 If that biblical 2nd cutter works out, wow! ELE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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