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Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.


wdrag
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Another significant weather event is headed our way, about 7-8 days after the last. By the time the first day of winter officially starts, we may see a little snow or ice for the interior and substantial rainfall that could prompt flood and coastal flood statements for our area.  

Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow, especially I84 elevations Tuesday-Wednesday.  Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly """isolated 6"""" worst case.  Not saying 6" will occur but it's in some of the advance modeling and it could end up over the fish.  Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem.

A disturbance in the southwest USA today-Wednesday 12/13 migrates east, ingesting short waves from the northern stream and a juicy one out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Then it apparently plods northeast along the east coast. How close the upper low comes up here before fading east is with the traditional uncertainty and TBD, but it will be interesting to monitor.  

There could be a significant banding signal well to the northwest of the upper low and if that upper low holds together longer and eventually makes it up to the south of LI by the start of winter., it will have produced quite bit of impact here.  That is still very uncertain and not a lock.

Modeling seen through 06z/13: EC-EPS is basically one and done by late Tuesday, but it even flags interior snowfall, the GEFS is most robust for wintry weather and the CMCE, a slightly warmer model, also has some wintry stuff a little further north of I84. All ensembles agree on accumulations Adirondacks. 

This is another El Niño event, that is particularly juicy (see FL coast pressure intensity), and has a noticeable RRQ of the upper jet near the Canadian Maritimes (southern-northern stream merge) to assist upward motion. 

Will there be two events next week? or just one centered on Monday?  

 

Title update 6AM Saturday from the original that follows: added Damaging gusts LI/CT. A single or pair of nor'easters Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - Thu evening Dec 21. Potential: flooding rain I95 corridor, persistent gusty ne wind driven tidal flooding episodes next week, change to ice or snow interior elevations by Tue morning.  

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Thanks Walt for starting this thread. Things working in our favor for less potential coastal impacts are the moon will be in first quarter phase.  I always pause when these coastal systems are showing up for multi-day events.  Although far from a Dec. 92 event, multiple rounds of high tides and northeast winds will cause issues - not having that added extra foot foot and a half from the moon will help being in mid cycle though. 

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1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Another significant weather event is headed our way, about 7-8 days after the last. By the time the first day of winter officially starts, we may see a little snow or ice for the interior and substantial rainfall that could prompt flood and coastal flood statements for our area.  

Sunday-Thursday "potential pair" of wet events that could eventually change to ice or wet snow, especially I84 elevations Tuesday-Wednesday.  Substantial rainfall is outlooked... probably at least an inch for virtually the entire NYC subforum and possibly """isolated 6"""" worst case.  Not saying 6" will occur but it's in some of the advance modeling and it could end up over the fish.  Persistent northeast winds for possibly up to 4-5 days could be a coastal flood problem.

A disturbance in the southwest USA today-Wednesday 12/13 migrates east, ingesting short waves from the northern stream and a juicy one out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Then it apparently plods northeast along the east coast. How close the upper low comes up here before fading east is with the traditional uncertainty and TBD, but it will be interesting to monitor.  

There could be a significant banding signal well to the northwest of the upper low and if that upper low holds together longer and eventually makes it up to the south of LI by the start of winter., it will have produced quite bit of impact here.  That is still very uncertain and not a lock.

Modeling seen through 06z/13: EC-EPS is basically one and done by late Tuesday, but it even flags interior snowfall, the GEFS is most robust for wintry weather and the CMCE, a slightly warmer model, also has some wintry stuff a little further north of I84. All ensembles agree on accumulations Adirondacks. 

This is another El Niño event, that is particularly juicy (see FL coast pressure intensity), and has a noticeable RRQ of the upper jet near the Canadian Maritimes (southern-northern stream merge) to assist upward motion. 

Will there be two events next week? or just one centered on Monday?  

Thank you for the update Walt.. some wintry weather up here in the 84 corridor would be nice

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38 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

2 more rain nor’easters before Xmas. Joy. A Xmas treat.


.

See 97/98. I remember one of the nor’easters changing rain to extremely heavy dinner plate snow and dropping a quick inch. But it was rainstorm after rainstorm even with perfect benchmark tracks. Pacific jet on steroids will do that. Luckily, this isn’t as strong a nino. Hence my positivity for the jan24-feb24 period. We aren’t getting shut out this year. 

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Just have to ride out all the model variations the next couple days.  I think we'll settle in on a big Monday event, secondary Tuesday,  and then ebyond that.... ??  I don't think the models are near consensus yet on how Noon Sunday-Tuesday plays though it looks very wet at times.  I may not comment again til Friday afternoon.

This is a good week to continue outdoor cleanup.

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See 97/98. I remember one of the nor’easters changing rain to extremely heavy dinner plate snow and dropping a quick inch. But it was rainstorm after rainstorm even with perfect benchmark tracks. Pacific jet on steroids will do that. Luckily, this isn’t as strong a nino. Hence my positivity for the jan24-feb24 period. We aren’t getting shut out this year. 

Backloaded Nino thoughts. I’m with it


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18z GFS shows what I mean by maxing out/occluding early. The low becomes vertically stacked over the Carolinas and even though we get a decent 1-2" type rain it's nothing like the 5" deluge on the GGEM. We still do get gusty SE winds on the coast as modeled but if the low starts weakening as it's vertically stacked those winds would likely diminish. At least this is the outcome I'm hoping for if we need to put up with this storm.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

18z GFS shows what I mean by maxing out/occluding early. The low becomes vertically stacked over the Carolinas and even though we get a decent 1-2" type rain it's nothing like the 5" deluge on the GGEM. We still do get gusty SE winds on the coast as modeled but if the low starts weakening as it's vertically stacked those winds would likely diminish. At least this is the outcome I'm hoping for if we need to put up with this storm.

Yeah 0z continues the theme of 1 to 2". Cmc is still a deluge though not the 4"+ amounts

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Top 15 December precip at NYC over 1 day (snowfall included, gives a measure of QPF) and top 24 to last year's Dec 22-23 event and eventual 2-day for all one-day events listed.

20" snow Dec 26-27 2010 yielded 1.61" liquid equivalent. 

Note top two on list are both on Dec 13. Ranks 6 and 8 are on Dec 11.

(added Dec 17-18 2023)

 

Rank ___ 1-day ___ Date _________ (snow if any) _____ max, min temps (F)

_01 ____ 3.09 _____ Dec 13, 1909 (1.0" snow) _____ 53, 33 

_02 ____ 2.97 _____ Dec 13, 1941 (0.3" snow) _____ 46, 27

_03 ____ 2.54 _____ Dec 9, 2014 (1.0" snow 10th) _ 42, 36

_04 ____ 2.52 _____ Dec 29, 1901^_________________ 55, 44

_05 ____ 2.49 _____ Dec 21, 1973 (Tr snow) _______ 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm)

_06 ____ 2.41 _____ Dec 11, 1992 __________________ 42,37

_07 ____ 2.36 _____ Dec 26, 1947 (26.4" snow) ___ 31, 25

_08 ____ 2.35 _____ Dec 11, 2008 _________________ 43, 37 

_09 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 17, 1888 _________________ 55, 50

_10 ____ 2.25 _____ Dec 16, 1974 __________________47, 38

_11 ____ 2.22 _____ Dec 14, 1897 __________________ 53, 45 

_12 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 18, 2023 __________________ 62, 42

_13 ____ 2.19 _____ Dec 9, 1973 ___________________ 55, 37

_14 ____ 2.18 _____ Dec 22, 1983 (0.6" snow) _____ 53, 31

_15 ____ 2.16 _____ Dec 2, 1974 ___________________ 50, 39

_16 ____ 1.98 _____ Dec 7, 1908 ___________________ 57, 38

(next top contender large snowfall was Dec 20, 1874, 1.92 incl 10.0" snow)

(Dec 26-27 2010 20" snow reduced to 1.61" precip)

 

Rank ___2-day ____Dates _______________________ Temps

_01 ____ 3.62 ____ Dec 12-13, 1983 ______________ temps in 53-59 range for rainfall portion

_02 ____ 3.29 ____ Dec 13-14, 1909 (1.0" snow) __ 53, 33 and 53, 40

_03 ____ 3.28 ____ Dec 11-12, 2008 ______________ 43, 37 and 44, 32

_04 ____ 3.03 ____ Dec 13-14, 1941 ______________ 46, 27 and 46, 33

_05 ____ 2.96 ____ Dec 29-30, 1901 ______________ 55, 44 and 45, 34

_06*____ 2.94 ____ Dec 30-31, 1948 (4.0" snow)__57, 52 and 52, 25 

_07 ____ 2.87 ____ Dec 11-12, 1992** (0.4" snow)_42, 37 and 43, 32 

_08*____ 2.73 ____ Dec 2-3, 1986 ________________ 53, 35 and 59, 46

_09 ____ 2.65 ____ Dec 20-21, 1973 (Tr snow) ____54, 25 and 57, 25 (Dec 20-21 o/n warm)

_10 ____ 2.62 ____ Dec 9-10, 2014 (1.0" snow) ___ 42, 36 and 40, 32

_11*____ 2.61 ____ Dec 6-7, 1996 (Tr snow) _______46, 35 and 45, 34

_12 ____ 2.58 ____ Dec 1-2 1974^ _(Tr snow) _____ 42, 33 and 50, 39 

_13 ____ 2.47 ____ Dec 17-18, 2023 ______________ 59, 47 and 62, 42

_14 ____ 2.40 ____ Dec 26-27, 1947 (26.4" snow) _31, 25 and 35, 29

_15*____ 2.36 ____ Dec 14-15, 1981 (1.4" snow) __ 37, 29 and 38, 35

_16 ____ 2.33 ____ Dec 17-18, 1888 _______________55, 50 and 52, 29

_17 ____ 2.28 _____ Dec 14-15, 1897 ______________53, 45 and 57, 47

_18*____ 2.25 _____ Dec 9-10, 1878 (0.5" snow) __46, 33 and 60, 46

_19*____ 2.24 _____ Dec 7-8, 1914 (0.5" snow) ___ 36, 32 and 36, 30 (presumably a lot of snow not far away)

_20 ____ 2.21 _____ Dec 22-23, 1983 (0.8" snow) _ 53, 31 and 41, 22 (6, 4 next 2d min)

_21 ____(2.19" Dec 9 1973 no additional amounts Dec 8 or 10)

_22 ____ 2.13 _____ Dec 3-4, 1925 _______________ 49, 39 and 51, 46

_23 ____ 2.08 _____Dec 19-20, 1936 (Tr snow) ___48, 23 and 55, 34

_24 ____2.06 _____ Dec 22-23, 2022 (Tr snow) __47, 35 and 58, 8 (max 15 min 7 on Dec 24)

_25 ____2.03 _____ Dec 6-7, 1908 _______________ 43, 26 and 57, 38

 

* (to rank 21, all 2-day contenders except ranks 6, 8, 11, 15, 18 and 19 are also in one-day table. Rank 6 is 1.54" + 1.40" ... Rank 8 is 1.62"+1.11" ... Rank 11 is 1.20"+1.41"  ... Rank 15 is 1.02" + 1.34" ... Rank 18 is 0.63"+1.62" ... Rank 19 is (0.25"+)1.81"+0.43")

note, a 3rd significant Dec-1983 value of 1.97" for Dec 3-4, 1983. 

** 3.31" total Dec 10-12 1992 ... 2.85 Dec 10-11 1992 2-day is not counted as separate entry but ranks 8, if all cases are considered. Same applies to 2.62" Dec 10-11, 2008. 

2.95" fell Dec 28-30 1942 but Dec 29 value of 0.39" (1.22+0.39+1.34) _ no qualifying 2-d totals. 

___________________________________________

 

 

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My take based on all primary models through 00z-06z/14: Sunday afternoon-next Thursday I84-I95 corridors (17th-21st), a large storm will produce heavy rains NJ-se NYS-LI-CT-MA by Monday morning (roughly 1-3"), then abate and temporarily be very mild Monday. Then the precip "possibly" redevelops Tuesday or Wednesday as a period of mixed ice or wet snow from NJ-PA northward to NYC-Boston. Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent (as usual)... for now, the ensemble snow accumulations (snow depth change) are small... generally under an inch in our area. 
 
Tue-Wed is fraught with uncertainty... does precip occur or not? If it does, then I have high confidence it would be wintry...just not sure if precip redevelops.  Ensembles are spreading out the wintry stuff a little further south.  EPS is much sharper with the trough here in NJ next Tuesday... that will be critical. If it's mushed out with wsw 5H flow instead of ssw flow, then part two is probably offshore.  Just too uncertain for me to express confidence on part two.
 
Also, am aware that part one Sunday night-Monday won't be a nor'easter but instead probably an inside runner.
 
Basis for wintry is scrolling through "24 hours snow depth change" on CMCE, EPS, GEFS. 
 
Will check back Friday to see how this unfolds.  (as some say, am a Modelologist- it isn't like it was 30-35 years ago when two model runs/day and couple models to monitor-dig into--- now it's speeding through many general model ideas, counting on model intelligence to lead me-us down the right path)
 

 

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57 minutes ago, wdrag said:
My take based on all primary models through 00z-06z/14: Sunday afternoon-next Thursday I84-I95 corridors (17th-21st), a large storm will produce heavy rains NJ-se NYS-LI-CT-MA by Monday morning (roughly 1-3"), then abate and temporarily be very mild Monday. Then the precip "possibly" redevelops Tuesday or Wednesday as a period of mixed ice or wet snow from NJ-PA northward to NYC-Boston. Snow accumulations will be elevation dependent (as usual)... for now, the ensemble snow accumulations (snow depth change) are small... generally under an inch in our area. 
 
Tue-Wed is fraught with uncertainty... does precip occur or not? If it does, then I have high confidence it would be wintry...just not sure if precip redevelops.  Ensembles are spreading out the wintry stuff a little further south.  EPS is much sharper with the trough here in NJ next Tuesday... that will be critical. If it's mushed out with wsw 5H flow instead of ssw flow, then part two is probably offshore.  Just too uncertain for me to express confidence on part two.
 
Also, am aware that part one Sunday night-Monday won't be a nor'easter but instead probably an inside runner.
 
Basis for wintry is scrolling through "24 hours snow depth change" on CMCE, EPS, GEFS. 
 
Will check back Friday to see how this unfolds.  (as some say, am a Modelologist- it isn't like it was 30-35 years ago when two model runs/day and couple models to monitor-dig into--- now it's speeding through many general model ideas, counting on model intelligence to lead me-us down the right path)
 

 

This is what I was mentioning earlier. The dude I was reading from another board, is a bright one, and he was all over the cold getting in here and producing wintery precip, while everyone else was saying all rain. Should be fun to track and see how it unfolds...

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59 minutes ago, Irish said:

This is what I was mentioning earlier. The dude I was reading from another board, is a bright one, and he was all over the cold getting in here and producing wintery precip, while everyone else was saying all rain. Should be fun to track and see how it unfolds...

Well, I sure hope the EPS change to stronger and slower this 00z/14 c cycle is correct. If so, we're in business Tue-Wed-Thu.  Before that...

Monday morning should be a little rough with wind gust 40, coastal flooding (minor?), a significant 6-12 hour dump if 1-3" which I think would produce some flooding, certainly impact early morning travel. 

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  • wdrag changed the title to Moderate-High Impact Storm Noon Sun Dec 17, 2023 - 4PM Mon Dec 18. Flooding rain I95 corridor northwestward, coastal tidal flooding, brief periods of damaging 50 MPH+ wind gusts LI/CT Monday, ends as a little wet snow interior elevations Tue morning.
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