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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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2 hours ago, Frog Town said:

My thoughts exactly.  Our first accumulating snow fall that year was during spring break...

We actually went sledding but the 8" melted off by noon.  

That winter was crazy in that we did so much better in Detroit than you guys did in Toledo, but then further north towards Flint they actually had a snowy winter. Talk about gradient. Toledo did have SOME light snows, but the lnly worthwfile storm was that April 8 incher. I remember as it was opening day for the detroit tigers, I had tix and was watching weather closely for a snow out. We had a dusting up here, but the heavy snow stayed just to our south. 

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4 minutes ago, CorePunch said:

Because significant below normal temperatures and copious amounts of snow ‘never’ happen in February…right?…. 
 

that sun angle fellas…. Steals the February winter.  

The amount of unusually snowy February's we have has been just as impressive as the mundane december's. And sun angle has never been an issue in a wintry pattern.  Unless you're talking about an inch of 40-1 ratio fluff that melts away under the late february sun on a thirty degree day.

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6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The amount of unusually snowy February's we have has been just as impressive as the mundane december's. And sun angle has never been an issue in a wintry pattern.  Unless you're talking about an inch of 40-1 ratio fluff that melts away under the late february sun on a thirty degree day.

 Exactly.  

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5 hours ago, Chambana said:

Keeping expectations low during a borderline very strong El Niño keeps your sanity. So anything noteworthy that does pop up is a welcome surprise. This winter has been playing like out strikingly similar to 2015-16 so far. 

I’m actually getting strong 2011-2012 vibes from this winter so far, despite that one being a nina winter.

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9 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:


Hey man I appreciate your input but I disagree. January is cooked for the most part. MJO actually looks to move into the warmer phases pretty quickly based on January trends. Also the SSWE will dump the cold other side of the pole.

The other thing is pattern persistence which has been a common thing since the summer. If I was a betting man I would bet on the same generalized thing continuing.

Maybe better luck in February? Who knows though how much can be salvaged as we will have minuscule frost depths and a rapidly rising sun angle.

1fe3718cc76bba1111f939410d3ab17d.gif
ffe43e3e6f8dd9d7995a5d9ac357618d.jpg


.

NOAA notoriously rides the el nino train at a cost even when it is becomes apparent that changes are afoot. This winter has had always two sides. A typical el nino year or a year where it turns wintry in January as the pattern breaks. Almost everyone had a warm December across the board. And while Decembers as a whole have been warm, early or late season snows and cold have typically offset this consistent strong Februaries not withstanding. We are now into the time where we see how things break. Note, that even the areas that do well in a nino year have really not stuck to that pattern which may argue this is not going to be a standard run the table warm winter for this forum. 

 

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Please expand on that

I'm sure @michsnowfreak has a logical explanation behind his comment with some form of data to back it up. And I can certainly agree that the broader upper level pattern in 2011 vs. 2023 is nothing alike.

But I will say, comparing the anomalies for yalls' part of the country (as well as the snowcover maps), there are definitely some similarities. But this, of course, doesn't mean a whole lot with respect to how the rest of the season will evolve. 

MonthTDeptUS.png

 

Dec11TDeptUS.png

 

MonthPNormUS.png

Dec11PNormUS.png

Dec11PDeptUS.png

MonthPDeptUS.png

 

 

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3 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Please expand on that

Winter of 2011-12 sucked, make no mistake about that. In fact, it is my least snowy winter (25.5" in 29 years of keeping track) However, there are 2 things that really make that the poster child for sucky winters, and that is a combination of the record warmth in March which literally stopped winter at the end of February, and with the fact that that winter was surrounded by a period of unusually severe winters. When you look back at 150 years of winters, there were many great ones and many duds, but they all had their own unique character. These days, it's actually become a pet peeve of mine that anytime we are in a sucky mild pattern, you hear the inevitable "2011-12, 2011-12".

November 2011 was warm and record wet. November 2023 was cool and top 20 record dry. November 2011 had no winter until the very last day when a flooding rainstorm turned to wet snow in places. November 2023 had a period of wintry weather. December 2011, while very mild overall, was fairly active and did at least have several wintry systems. December 2023 is warm and mostly zzzz. 

And winter is just beginning. Way way too early to tell if it's going to have a good comeback or end up an overall dud, but i could probably find dozens of better matches to date than 2011-12.

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5 minutes ago, buckeye said:

is there any similarities to 97-98?    Fast flow and cut off lows, an early January brief cold spell followed by seasonable boring weather and an eventual crazy cutoff low that snowed in the south and rained in the north.

I would say no. November 1997 was very cold. December was more wintry in 1997. Jan started out very warm. Feb was a torch. 

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Palm Dude's trolling wouldn't be nearly as bad if he came up with a new schtick.
At this point, it's just so low effort and predictable. 

Not even close to trolling. Every indicator is showing a warm pattern continuing that I can see and rather than discuss it people want to call names and dismiss. I’m here to discuss the weather. Sorry it’s warm.
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6 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Winter of 2011-12 sucked, make no mistake about that. In fact, it is my least snowy winter (25.5" in 29 years of keeping track) However, there are 2 things that really make that the poster child for sucky winters, and that is a combination of the record warmth in March which literally stopped winter at the end of February, and with the fact that that winter was surrounded by a period of unusually severe winters. When you look back at 150 years of winters, there were many great ones and many duds, but they all had their own unique character. These days, it's actually become a pet peeve of mine that anytime we are in a sucky mild pattern, you hear the inevitable "2011-12, 2011-12".

November 2011 was warm and record wet. November 2023 was cool and top 20 record dry. November 2011 had no winter until the very last day when a flooding rainstorm turned to wet snow in places. November 2023 had a period of wintry weather. December 2011, while very mild overall, was fairly active and did at least have several wintry systems. December 2023 is warm and mostly zzzz. 

And winter is just beginning. Way way too early to tell if it's going to have a good comeback or end up an overall dud, but i could probably find dozens of better matches to date than 2011-12.

The fact you have had only one winter in 29 yrs of snow records that was 25.5" or less is interesting.  You either are getting lucky or your area receives some decent LES contributions. I looked up the Barrington snow records in the NW burbs which is pretty much devoid of LES and they have registered four winters with less than 25.5" since 2011. Should be about as far north as your locale.

2012(22.8"),2017(22.1"),2022(19.7"), 2023(21.5")

Even 2016 barely cleared the threshold at 26.3"

 

 

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1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

I don't get how it's so challenging to figure out a new mod that we all trust who'll delete his ass. It's not like we don't have options, and surely there's some way to reach the upper admins.

There are several people here who would be fine but nothing will be done. Too many above have issues with those who would be good candidates myself included even though this subforum would agree that any of us would do a good job.

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4 hours ago, Cary67 said:

The fact you have had only one winter in 29 yrs of snow records that was 25.5" or less is interesting.  You either are getting lucky or your area receives some decent LES contributions. I looked up the Barrington snow records in the NW burbs which is pretty much devoid of LES and they have registered four winters with less than 25.5" since 2011. Should be about as far north as your locale.

2012(22.8"),2017(22.1"),2022(19.7"), 2023(21.5")

Even 2016 barely cleared the threshold at 26.3"

 

 

Southeast Michigan is well outside of the snow belt obviously, but we do get accumulating lake effect snow every winter (pick your suburb for whether you like west or northwest flow...for me, west is best). But I always feel one of the more underrated bonuses of Lake Michigan is the enhancement it provides to synoptic systems. Lake enhancement with clippers is usually noticeable, but sometimes little pieces of energy just cross the lake and give it a boost and voila, you get snow. But all that said, i'm sure luck plays to it as well.

2022-23: 37.2"

2021-22: 47.6"

2020-21: 47.0"

2019-20: 43.8"

2018-19: 31.9"

2017-18: 62.5"

2016-17: 41.6"

2015-16: 35.0"

2014-15: 48.5"

2013-14: 96.2"

2012-13: 47.9"

2011-12: 25.5"

2010-11: 69.4"

2009-10: 46.1"

2008-09: 64.8"

2007-08: 78.2"

2006-07: 36.3"

2005-06: 41.9"

2004-05: 80.7"

2003-04: 36.6"

2002-03: 66.9"

2001-02: 42.5"

2000-01: 47.3"

1999-00: 29.3"

1998-99: 52.1"

1997-98: 27.2"

1996-97: 35.9"

1995-96: 31.3"

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As has been mentioned, we are heading into a significant pattern change. Changes on the large scale really start to appear this weekend and into the beginning of this upcoming week. This new pattern, which may very well evolve over time, will extend through the first 1/3rd of January, and quite possibly the first 1/2 of January.

Two big changes that we are seeing right off the bat and that have already begun are a progression of the MJO into the colder phases and a stratospheric warming event. The MJO recently entered the COD, after being in low-amplitude warmer phases from the very end of November through the first 2/3rds of December. The trip through those warmer phases is one of several reasons (Raging Pac Jet is another) that we have been stuck in a consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) regime. The MJO has now entered a colder phase, low amplitude phase 8, and is expected to make a trip at lower amplitude roughly through colder phases 1-2 over the next 1-2 weeks. Another thing that we will be watching unfold is stratospheric warming. This event is expected to disrupt the main SPV placement and strength during the potentially 1-3 week event. As is usually the case, any effects of the SSWE will not be seen right away; that is something to keep an eye on from around week 2 in January through early February.

255708444_ECMF_BC(1).png.3a89226efde1d366c1eaa9979c7493ee.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z30_anom-3894400.thumb.png.a49ba252507de114ef872ea027f5c24f.pngps2png-worker-commands-558f87fd99-6mj72-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-fhZfev.png.e673fea85fcb3cba41f1f45f0ac86e47.png

As mentioned above, there are a few reasons we have been seeing consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) conditions over the past several weeks. The raging Pacific jet is one of those bigger reasons. The Pacific jet is expected to break down soon, with increased troughy-ness (Wave breaks) developing. Canadian ridging, which will retrograde from Central to Western Canada and eventually Alaska, will also tend to lower Pacific influence as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-3494800.thumb.png.1410a6a24cc7b7b1c517bef91b8b2839.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-4153600.thumb.png.abb79c06db57021db51eead50092fb54.png

Getting beyond the MJO, SSW and Pac jet... We are likely to see a fairly consistent flow of waves/disturbances/troughs enter the CONUS along the West Coast, originating from the deep/mean trough from the Aleutians down into the Northeast Pacific. This is characterized by the lower-height anomalies from the Northeast Pacific and then across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CONUS. Additionally, with the Pacific jet breaking down and the retrograding ridging in Canada, this will lead to generally cooler/colder conditions overall than have been seen, with an airmass origin more often than not from the Northeast Pacific to Pole regions.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3937600.thumb.png.3ca9618e04ff317c62eebc4cadb38505.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4456000.thumb.png.805c7a902a7e2fdfb25d66a5bb0442a6.png

All in all, with this pattern change...
-While it may not be super/hyper active, there will be a steady stream of disturbances that traverse the CONUS. Will they all turn into something interesting? No. But having a feed is a start.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been. That's not to say there won't be any bouts of mild temperatures, but what we have been seeing will be in the past for now.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.

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9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

As has been mentioned, we are heading into a significant pattern change. Changes on the large scale really start to appear this weekend and into the beginning of this upcoming week. This new pattern, which may very well evolve over time, will extend through the first 1/3rd of January, and quite possibly the first 1/2 of January.

Two big changes that we are seeing right off the bat and that have already begun are a progression of the MJO into the colder phases and a stratospheric warming event. The MJO recently entered the COD, after being in low-amplitude warmer phases from the very end of November through the first 2/3rds of December. The trip through those warmer phases is one of several reasons (Raging Pac Jet is another) that we have been stuck in a consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) regime. The MJO has now entered a colder phase, low amplitude phase 8, and is expected to make a trip at lower amplitude roughly through colder phases 1-2 over the next 1-2 weeks. Another thing that we will be watching unfold is stratospheric warming. This event is expected to disrupt the main SPV placement and strength during the potentially 1-3 week event. As is usually the case, any effects of the SSWE will not be seen right away; that is something to keep an eye on from around week 2 in January through early February.

255708444_ECMF_BC(1).png.3a89226efde1d366c1eaa9979c7493ee.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z30_anom-3894400.thumb.png.a49ba252507de114ef872ea027f5c24f.pngps2png-worker-commands-558f87fd99-6mj72-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-fhZfev.png.e673fea85fcb3cba41f1f45f0ac86e47.png

As mentioned above, there are a few reasons we have been seeing consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) conditions over the past several weeks. The raging Pacific jet is one of those bigger reasons. The Pacific jet is expected to break down soon, with increased troughy-ness (Wave breaks) developing. Canadian ridging, which will retrograde from Central to Western Canada and eventually Alaska, will also tend to lower Pacific influence as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-3494800.thumb.png.1410a6a24cc7b7b1c517bef91b8b2839.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-4153600.thumb.png.abb79c06db57021db51eead50092fb54.png

Getting beyond the MJO, SSW and Pac jet... We are likely to see a fairly consistent flow of waves/disturbances/troughs enter the CONUS along the West Coast, originating from the deep/mean trough from the Aleutians down into the Northeast Pacific. This is characterized by the lower-height anomalies from the Northeast Pacific and then across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CONUS. Additionally, with the Pacific jet breaking down and the retrograding ridging in Canada, this will lead to generally cooler/colder conditions overall than have been seen, with an airmass origin more often than not from the Northeast Pacific to Pole regions.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3937600.thumb.png.3ca9618e04ff317c62eebc4cadb38505.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4456000.thumb.png.805c7a902a7e2fdfb25d66a5bb0442a6.png

All in all, with this pattern change...
-While it may not be super/hyper active, there will be a steady stream of disturbances that traverse the CONUS. Will they all turn into something interesting? No. But having a feed is a start.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been. That's not to say there won't be any bouts of mild temperatures, but what we have been seeing will be in the past for now.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.

Top notch. Appreciate the insight as always. Nice break to the “warm” and “ban him” bickering. 

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7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Southeast Michigan is well outside of the snow belt obviously, but we do get accumulating lake effect snow every winter (pick your suburb for whether you like west or northwest flow...for me, west is best). But I always feel one of the more underrated bonuses of Lake Michigan is the enhancement it provides to synoptic systems. Lake enhancement with clippers is usually noticeable, but sometimes little pieces of energy just cross the lake and give it a boost and voila, you get snow. But all that said, i'm sure luck plays to it as well.

2022-23: 37.2"

2021-22: 47.6"

2020-21: 47.0"

2019-20: 43.8"

2018-19: 31.9"

2017-18: 62.5"

2016-17: 41.6"

2015-16: 35.0"

2014-15: 48.5"

2013-14: 96.2"

2012-13: 47.9"

2011-12: 25.5"

2010-11: 69.4"

2009-10: 46.1"

2008-09: 64.8"

2007-08: 78.2"

2006-07: 36.3"

2005-06: 41.9"

2004-05: 80.7"

2003-04: 36.6"

2002-03: 66.9"

2001-02: 42.5"

2000-01: 47.3"

1999-00: 29.3"

1998-99: 52.1"

1997-98: 27.2"

1996-97: 35.9"

1995-96: 31.3"

Yeah the differences the last few winters are stark. I will look at RFD numbers also just to remove LES and enhancement totals that ORD and MDW receive. Gives a better idea about general synoptic snow activity across Northern IL in a given winter. Not a huge stats guy but have to guess there is a substantial difference in numbers over the years between DFW and RFD. As for Lake Michigan enhancement, synoptic snow systems have been in short supply here the last few years. 

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5 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

As has been mentioned, we are heading into a significant pattern change. Changes on the large scale really start to appear this weekend and into the beginning of this upcoming week. This new pattern, which may very well evolve over time, will extend through the first 1/3rd of January, and quite possibly the first 1/2 of January.

Two big changes that we are seeing right off the bat and that have already begun are a progression of the MJO into the colder phases and a stratospheric warming event. The MJO recently entered the COD, after being in low-amplitude warmer phases from the very end of November through the first 2/3rds of December. The trip through those warmer phases is one of several reasons (Raging Pac Jet is another) that we have been stuck in a consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) regime. The MJO has now entered a colder phase, low amplitude phase 8, and is expected to make a trip at lower amplitude roughly through colder phases 1-2 over the next 1-2 weeks. Another thing that we will be watching unfold is stratospheric warming. This event is expected to disrupt the main SPV placement and strength during the potentially 1-3 week event. As is usually the case, any effects of the SSWE will not be seen right away; that is something to keep an eye on from around week 2 in January through early February.

255708444_ECMF_BC(1).png.3a89226efde1d366c1eaa9979c7493ee.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z30_anom-3894400.thumb.png.a49ba252507de114ef872ea027f5c24f.pngps2png-worker-commands-558f87fd99-6mj72-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-fhZfev.png.e673fea85fcb3cba41f1f45f0ac86e47.png

As mentioned above, there are a few reasons we have been seeing consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) conditions over the past several weeks. The raging Pacific jet is one of those bigger reasons. The Pacific jet is expected to break down soon, with increased troughy-ness (Wave breaks) developing. Canadian ridging, which will retrograde from Central to Western Canada and eventually Alaska, will also tend to lower Pacific influence as well.

ecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-3494800.thumb.png.1410a6a24cc7b7b1c517bef91b8b2839.pngecmwf-deterministic-nhemi-z500_speed-4153600.thumb.png.abb79c06db57021db51eead50092fb54.png

Getting beyond the MJO, SSW and Pac jet... We are likely to see a fairly consistent flow of waves/disturbances/troughs enter the CONUS along the West Coast, originating from the deep/mean trough from the Aleutians down into the Northeast Pacific. This is characterized by the lower-height anomalies from the Northeast Pacific and then across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CONUS. Additionally, with the Pacific jet breaking down and the retrograding ridging in Canada, this will lead to generally cooler/colder conditions overall than have been seen, with an airmass origin more often than not from the Northeast Pacific to Pole regions.

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-3937600.thumb.png.3ca9618e04ff317c62eebc4cadb38505.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-namer-z500_anom-4456000.thumb.png.805c7a902a7e2fdfb25d66a5bb0442a6.png

All in all, with this pattern change...
-While it may not be super/hyper active, there will be a steady stream of disturbances that traverse the CONUS. Will they all turn into something interesting? No. But having a feed is a start.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been. That's not to say there won't be any bouts of mild temperatures, but what we have been seeing will be in the past for now.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.

My only worry is the MJO wave is so low amplitude that it may not flush the pattern enough. I'd love to see the wave propagate at a higher amplitude, but I will take what we can get here.

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My only worry is the MJO wave is so low amplitude that it may not flush the pattern enough. I'd love to see the wave propagate at a higher amplitude, but I will take what we can get here.

I would think it is OK if we do not totally flush the pattern. It may become about timing the cold intrusions with a moist Pacific flow.


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It would be funny if it verified, but is the CMC trying to resolve a Mesolow over Lake Michigan due to the ULL next Friday? Would be a funny way to transition from near 60F Christmas to 6"+ snow cover on NYE.

The CMC has been honking the horn. The GFS as usual is struggling with mesoscale events. I’m keenly awaiting the mesoscale models. Someone is gonna get NAM’d.
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