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December Mid/Long Range Discussion

WxUSAF

By WxUSAF,
in Mid Atlantic

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Bob Chill
Bob Chill

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing. 

mappy
mappy

Good morning --  Winter starts Friday (climatological seasons for the win), and our regular snow birds are coming back to roost for the winter. As such our threads are becoming more active, espec

stormtracker
stormtracker

Seconded. And while we're at it, yall remember when posting a model post 200 hours was scorned upon?  Remember how the community would collectively rain hell on a poster who did that?  It's not a

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stormy

stormy

Posted
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According to my records, I received accumulating snow on December 5, 6 times since 2000.

2002  5.2 inches,  2003  6.5 inches,  2005  3.7 inches,  2007  1 inch,  2009  6.0 inches,  2018  1.5 inches.

There's something about December 5.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

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Posted

The way I see it, it sounds like we could already start off being ahead of last year: Actually SEEING snowflakes falling. Last year turned the troll aspect up to 1000 by not only giving just 0.2 inches, but doing at dang 4 am when nobody could see it, lol So for me even non-sticking flakes would be a good start (that and the fact that Mt. PSU may get closer to the inch :lol:)

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WxUSAF

WxUSAF

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12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression?

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Eskimo Joe

Eskimo Joe

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8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression?

The short wave responsible for the potential Wednesday event does not get over the upper air network until midday Monday, 12/4. We'll probably see things waffle until the 00z/12z runs on Monday. I know in the past that sometimes the GFS can sniff out a northern stream dominant system quick than the Euro. This event will be an important test case to see if one model is picking up on stuff earlier than the others.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z euro digs the shortwave quite a bit more than 0z. 0z gave us a little snow/mix with the low itself, but kept it all very progressive. 12z is really pretty close to the GFS. GFS just manages to get a little more neutral tilt. Looks like Ukie is maybe focusing on a different shortwave so it’s slower with the progression?

There are multiple candidates to choose from, and lots of interaction. This one will be fun to track lol.

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TSSN+

TSSN+

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4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. 

lol the good ole the ground is too warm post. How many times have we seen this get busted. Well mostly depend on air temp that day and rates. 

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Stormchaserchuck1

Stormchaserchuck1

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2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

lol the good ole the ground is too warm post. How many times have we seen this get busted. Well mostly depend on air temp that day and rates. 

All levels are pretty warm today. Upper levels are why it could snow at all, but I wouldn't be surprised to see mid-upper 30s temps. 

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jayyy

jayyy

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Hitting 61 at IAD today doesn't really bode well for the future of Dec 6 storm, besides maybe seeing a dusting on the grass. It could trend deeper, but temps are an issue this far south. 

What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though?

A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant.

I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us with much better climo than IAD
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WesternFringe

WesternFringe

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:


What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though?

A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant.

I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us which much better climo than IAD

Yeah, not worried about the high here today (50) affecting ground temps in 6 days, especially since the lows are below freezing on Monday and Tuesday night.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
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18 minutes ago, jayyy said:


What? What does 61 today have to do with 6-7 days from now though?

A day or two before? Sure, we can debate… But a week? It’s just not relevant.

I’ve personally witnessed 40+ degree temp drops overnight before a major snowfall. That’s not to say we will get something major or see such a large temp drop… but it can be 61 on November 30th and snow 1-3” on December 6th lol. Especially for those of us with much better climo than IAD

It was around 60 the day before the early Jan storm 2 years ago. It started snowing 8 hours later, and the temp was in the mid 20s with snow falling most of the next day. Not too much of a problem.

deckpic.jpg.2d26a72b38e505054e2b56df6e1c0ece.jpg

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