December 2023

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

06-07

If I remember correctly it was good til then end once it started.

[beavis1729]

1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

Yeah nothing on the ground here in Toronto too. Had an inch yesterday but that melted this afternoon and expected to be in the mid 40s on Christmas. 

This (and the Winnipeg green Christmas) shows why this December is so much worse than a typical bad December. Very few places in NA south of 55N will have a White Christmas. This is probably unprecedented. Not just the absence of a White Christmas , but the lack of snowfall at all. There has hardly been any snow all season in the Dakotas, MT, MN, WI, MI, IA, etc. Winter is nowhere to be found, anywhere. 
 

I know it’s still early to write off the whole season, but you can’t deny how pathetic December 2023 will be when all is said and done. 

[codfishsnowman]

43 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It also may have been that winter. It was before my time on the boards and that timeline seems better than 06-07. Either way this just has started to give me that feeling . Not quite there yet.. but it’s out of the realm. 

There was a region wide three to six inch event in January that season and a few other minor events. It was a bad winter for sure though

[codfishsnowman]

33 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

If I remember correctly it was good til then end once it started.

In the interior yes it was a good second half. 

[codfishsnowman]

17 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

This (and the Winnipeg green Christmas) shows why this December is so much worse than a typical bad December. Very few places in NA south of 55N will have a White Christmas. This is probably unprecedented. Not just the absence of a White Christmas , but the lack of snowfall at all. There has hardly been any snow all season in the Dakotas, MT, MN, WI, MI, IA, etc. Winter is nowhere to be found, anywhere. 
 

I know it’s still early to write off the whole season, but you can’t deny how pathetic December 2023 will be when all is said and done. 

This is a great post. I too, can't believe the lack of winter in the northern plains, Canada and upper Midwest. Even in NNE they were just barely cold enough most of the time when it did snow.

[tamarack]

31 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

If I remember correctly it was good til then end once it started.

06-07 was the greatest Jekyll-Hyde (or Hyde-Jekyll) winter I remember anywhere.  The incredibly abrupt change came on Jan 14.  Prior to that Nov-Dec-Jan had been way AN for temps, especially Jan, with less than 1/3 of snowfall season-to-date.  A couple of 5" events plus cold started the parade, then came VD-07 - "only" 15.5" because it was 8:1 cornmeal at low teens.  Then the hits kept coming, topped by 18.5" on April 4-5.  88% of the season's 95.3" fell Jan 14 on.

The 12.4" storm earlier this month was more snow than the 06-07 Hyde act.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Got colder but not enough for most of us. But it helps them out up there. 

Not sure that's done.  

Not making a call either way, but wouldn't be surprised if that comes back S in the total/ambient polar boundary ...along which obviously cyclonic transits and so forth.   I outlined why several days ago when, the GFS - if you might recall - was in fact depicting a snowier/mix or icier solution down S of the VT/NH borders with MA.  The antecedent -EPO that relayed into this +d(PNA) may be mishandled over the open expanse of the Canadian shield.  It wouldn't be the first time we've seen Lakes cutting primaries end up getting scrunched E along a stressed field as a correction in the shorter terms - which ... we're still talking over 7 days away. etc etc.

But for now as is ... bide time and hopefully the ski industry can at least recover. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not sure that's done.  

Not making a call either way, but wouldn't surprised if that comes back S in the total/ambient polar boundary ...along which obviously cyclonic transits and so forth.   I outlined why several days ago when, the GFS - if you might recall - was in fact depicting a snowier/mix or icier solution down S of the VT/NH borders with MA.  The antecedent -EPO that relayed into this +d(PNA) may be mishandled over the open expance of the Canadian shield.  It would be the first time we've seen Lakes cutting primaries end up getting scrunched E along a stressed field as a correction in the shorter terms - which ... we're still talking over 7 days away. etc etc.

But for now as is ... bide time and hopefully the ski industry can at least recover. 

18z GFS moved in a better direction towards that Euro run, Gets snow snow into the NNE mtns.

[dryslot]

Ha, A rare clipper around the 30th, Nearly extinct.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Ha, A rare clipper around the 30th, Nearly extinct.

Nah…not extinct just cyclical changes, it’ll come back into style at some point, we can bet on that. 

[DavisStraight]

12 minutes ago, tamarack said:

06-07 was the greatest Jekyll-Hyde (or Hyde-Jekyll) winter I remember anywhere.  The incredibly abrupt change came on Jan 14.  Prior to that Nov-Dec-Jan had been way AN for temps, especially Jan, with less than 1/3 of snowfall season-to-date.  A couple of 5" events plus cold started the parade, then came VD-07 - "only" 15.5" because it was 8:1 cornmeal at low teens.  Then the hits kept coming, topped by 18.5" on April 4-5.  88% of the season's 95.3" fell Jan 14 on.

The 12.4" storm earlier this month was more snow than the 06-07 Hyde act.

I remember golfing on New Years Eve that year and thought it would be a terrible year, but it recovered nicely.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I just don't know what to believe anymore. The other guy, jBenedict.. I'll call him the pope? He's pretty sure that the whole winter is a ratter?

That pretty much guarantees a pretty decent winter then.  We golden. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, tamarack said:

06-07 was the greatest Jekyll-Hyde (or Hyde-Jekyll) winter I remember anywhere.  The incredibly abrupt change came on Jan 14.  Prior to that Nov-Dec-Jan had been way AN for temps, especially Jan, with less than 1/3 of snowfall season-to-date.  A couple of 5" events plus cold started the parade, then came VD-07 - "only" 15.5" because it was 8:1 cornmeal at low teens.  Then the hits kept coming, topped by 18.5" on April 4-5.  88% of the season's 95.3" fell Jan 14 on.

The 12.4" storm earlier this month was more snow than the 06-07 Hyde act.

Same winter that a couple people were on Long Lake in Naples New Years Day on Jet Ski's.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Ha, A rare clipper around the 30th, Nearly extinct.

Look south on this chart between Atlanta GA and Cuba ... 3.5 isohypses through that SE/"Miami rule" region signals light mid level geostrophic wind. Also indicative, heights over Miami all the way down to 576.   

This is a field wide open to compression.  Should the western ridge pop more aft of your clipper there, and trust me, that f'er ends up stem wound on the Del Marva.  

But...it's likelier the one before or after this window is really dominating the wave spacing, and mishandling on this run ( however amount and what form notwithstanding ) is allowing this one's amplitude as we see it there.   Or, sacrifice one or both of the other two.   One thing that is pretty clear is that the operational GFS is having trouble orienting the mass fields between 120 W and NS during that window - that's a vague shitty representation of the d(PNA) leading that frame.  It's a strong one in the telecon projections - talking a run at +3 SD for shit's sake. 

[moneypitmike]

I recall being pumped for Christmas breaks of yore--tracking storms instead of having to work.  I still have the break but nothing to track.  Only 5 months to boating season.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the source region drastically improves, though. instead of a Pacific onslaught, you're getting air out of AK / northern Canada and split flow underneath. it's a completely different pattern

That’s a seasonably cold and dry look. 
 

If clippers are your thing, get excited on that run.

My earlier point was just that: when the cold arrives big storms aren’t nearby. Maybe we get lucky, but that’s been the general theme since November. 

[8611Blizz]

Don't sell clippers short. They have been the backbone of winters around here. At least they used to..

[8611Blizz]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I recall being pumped for Christmas breaks of yore--tracking storms instead of having to work.  I still have the break but nothing to track.  Only 5 months to boating season.

Repression.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That pretty much guarantees a pretty decent winter then.  We golden. 

Winter is 1/3 over unfortunately 

[Supernovice]

Does fish lurk here?

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1737604776676954152?s=46&t=ej91V1PwyPgv_VUNXsO_yQ

[Hailstoned]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…not extinct just cyclical changes, it’ll come back into style at some point, we can bet on that. 

Yup. And so will the Passenger Pigeon.

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter is 1/3 over unfortunately 

March is more of a winter month than December. more like 20% over IMO

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winter is 1/3 over unfortunately 

Nahhh..it’s not.  12/22-3/22… starts Friday pal. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Yup. And so will the Passenger Pigeon.

It’s Apples and oranges…you must have gotten hailstoned in the noggin too many times if you can’t understand the difference. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

March is more of a winter month than December. more like 20% over IMO

Not even that either. Starts Friday. 

[dendrite]

We met winter around here. DJF

[dryslot]

Dec is gone, So Jan Feb, March is not a winter month.

[jbenedet]

59 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That pretty much guarantees a pretty decent winter then.  We golden. 

Says the guy who eats squirrels.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Dec is gone, So Jan Feb, March is not a winter month.

I’m not a fan of MET winter…so I consider it a winter month…because actual winter goes until 3/22, so for me it’s a winter month.  

If we get snow in march(which we do a lot) we all count it towards the season total…like HUBB Dave and Ineedsnow did last March when they got almost 30” in that storm, which made their season.  So for me I count it as a winter month.  

[WinterWolf]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Says the guy who eats squirrels.

Yes sir, rabbits too.  Ducks as well.