Snowcrazed71 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: I’m thinking we get wet here today… lot of precip to the west heading this way…it won’t all dry up. Further north looks nice and dry. It looks like Fairfield county is getting some pretty heavy rain returns ( strange... It almost looks like sleet with the reds? )..... anyway.... We are right on that cusp... Even me being 5-7 miles north of you can make a difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 13 hours ago, powderfreak said: Mount Mansfield fell to 31F this morning, first 32F or lower of the season and second latest on record (Oct 19, 2021). Some interesting stats: From 1956-2000… first 32F or lower occurred in October only once! It happened in August 7 times. Since 2000… first 32F or lower has happened in October 7 times and 0 times in August. Most eye opening is the 1956-2023 period average 32F or lower date is 9/15. Since 2000 however, that first freeze has occurred prior to 9/15 only 4 out of 23 years. 19 of last 23 years it has after the long term mean of September 15th. Growing season continues to extend in the means. It did that (bold) in a +2.5 SD PNA/-2 SD NAO, too That's an interesting result given these indices have been evolving for 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It did that (bold) in a +2.5 SD PNA/-2 SD NAO, too That's an interesting result given these indices have been evolving for 10 days. Yeah and likewise in the Valley at 750ft we have not had a below normal day yet this month and sit at +8. When the trough has come, it’s been cloudy, showery and zero radiational cooling. Record warmth for first half of October. Average right now is 58/36… should be frosty most mornings at this point. We are past BTV’s climo frost/freeze program dates now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That’s why I roll with the warm season. You can’t fight back the tide. Yeah and to clarify I’m not pointing it out in any way other than to show the data. It’s not alarming or a cause/effect or whatever. It literally is what it is. It’s like when DIT says it isn’t like it used to be, that’s largely true removing all emotion from the context. I know sometimes people don’t want to hear it, but I think statistically it’s very interesting when you keep getting long term data points showing similar trajectories. The mountain summit has largely pivoted from freezes in late August and first half of September, to 2nd half of September and early October. There will be outliers on both sides, but the general picture is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 17 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: I doubt you see much rain. May not see any . Lots of LL dry air Rain moving in already up to a quarter inch in spots of Fairfield county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah and to clarify I’m not pointing it out in any way other than to show the data. It’s not alarming or a cause/effect or whatever. It literally is what it is. It’s like when DIT says it isn’t like it used to be, that’s largely true removing all emotion from the context. I know sometimes people don’t want to hear it, but I think statistically it’s very interesting when you keep getting long term data points showing similar trajectories. The mountain summit has largely pivoted from freezes in late August and first half of September, to 2nd half of September and early October. There will be outliers on both sides, but the general picture is what it is. I’m sort of poking the bear too lol. But yeah it’s getting warmer. No doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Outside shot at my first November first freeze ever. CON has never made it out of October without a freeze either although I’m sure they’ll sneak one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah and likewise in the Valley at 750ft we have not had a below normal day yet this month and sit at +8. When the trough has come, it’s been cloudy, showery and zero radiational cooling. Record warmth for first half of October. Average right now is 58/36… should be frosty most mornings at this point. We are past BTV’s climo frost/freeze program dates now. Not quite as extreme here - instead of BTV's +13 on Oct 1-7 then +2 Oct 8th on, it was +10 then -1 here. Looks like the next week here will continue dry and seasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Got down to 37.1 this morning. Had to turn the heat on… house was 58 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’m sort of poking the bear too lol. But yeah it’s getting warmer. No doubt. Thoughts and prayers to future generations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Got down to 37.1 this morning. Had to turn the heat on… house was 58 Windows open? Don’t you have a newer house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 8 minutes ago, dendrite said: Outside shot at my first November first freeze ever. CON has never made it out of October without a freeze either although I’m sure they’ll sneak one in. It’s been some mild nights for sure. SLK/BML/HIE should be hitting freezing with regularity. I know they’ve snuck it in once or twice maybe? But the radiators are not mounting up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 9 minutes ago, tamarack said: Not quite as extreme here - instead of BTV's +13 on Oct 1-7 then +2 Oct 8th on, it was +10 then -1 here. Looks like the next week here will continue dry and seasonable. That’s MVL… BTV is ever so slightly cooler (averaging 1F departure less than the mountain valleys) because BTV doesn’t have as much radiational cooling baked into its climo as much as the others. So BTV is actually slightly lower departures because of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thoughts and prayers to future generations. Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not. So F’n ridiculous! 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: Windows open? Don’t you have a newer house? Yeah the windows were open, I didn’t expect it to get so cool, so my fault. Just had to turn it on a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not. So F’n ridiculous! Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up… 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up… He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcglups Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 On the topic of "changes", this depiction of Grafton Maine has a telling sentence " Frosts came unfailingly in late June and mid-August, and were not unknown in July. The average summer temperature in the warmest month (July) was sixty-six degrees." https://www.bethelhistorical.org/legacy-site/Grafton,_Maine__A_Historical_Sketch.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon He’ll be buying a jet ski instead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He’ll be buying a jet ski instead. SummerWolf 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 34 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ya…OMG it’s the end of the world…not. So F’n ridiculous! The bright side is your place in Southington will be a beach front property. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: He’s going to be driving to Hudson Bay to snowmobile soon Lol…never. Plenty of cold and snow where I go for many decades to come. No worries whatsoever. It’s all cyclical. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Just started raining…we held it off as long as we could, but alas it’s wet again. On the edge of the heavier stuff down to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 3 hours ago, powderfreak said: Anytime a warm trend in climate comes up… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thoughts and prayers to future generations. the one positive is we will be able to grow food in areas that never had much of a growing season....if it rains of course. I think the biggest concern outside of coastal and already baked regions are the diseases from ticks and mosquitos...EEE is one where the later the freezes take, the longer that virus can spread in a region. Naegleria fowleri and Vibrio infections from warmer water are other issues that seem to be increasing year after year right now. It isn't just lack of A/C in northern regions and less ice unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Just started raining…we held it off as long as we could, but alas it’s wet again. On the edge of the heavier stuff down to the south. Just got home from work. It was spritzing in West Hartford, it's now starting to rain here in Plainville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 I've had the heat on for a week-turned it on last Monday for my wife on the way out the door for a trip. Definitely needed overnight and even during the day with overcast. I don't understand the logic of waiting until you're totally miserable..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 Looks like we'll dodge the outre October snow this autumn. The mass field/indicators are neutralizing and or reversing sign as we head through the next two weeks. It would be comical if that's when we get the cold pop tart snow shot across the bow, but cross that bridge. I'm not buying the cold wave in a week - or it may happen in a diminished capacity compared to what we are seeing in these operational runs. I don't believe the wholesale amplitude survives model magnification correction as it nears. Some, sure.. but with the telecon trajectory already underway ... In other words, I'm siding with the ensemble mean eof derivatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 39 minutes ago, Spanks45 said: the one positive is we will be able to grow food in areas that never had much of a growing season....if it rains of course. I think the biggest concern outside of coastal and already baked regions are the diseases from ticks and mosquitos...EEE is one where the later the freezes take, the longer that virus can spread in a region. Naegleria fowleri and Vibrio infections from warmer water are other issues that seem to be increasing year after year right now. It isn't just lack of A/C in northern regions and less ice unfortunately Concerns?? Really? Why worry about such complete and utter nonsense…?? Just enjoy the weather when it’s nice. Enjoy the snow when it comes. Nothing you, or anybody is gonna do about any of what you’re worried about. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 14, 2023 Share Posted October 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Concerns?? Really? Why worry about such complete and utter nonsense…?? Just enjoy the weather when it’s nice. Enjoy the snow when it comes. Nothing you, or anybody is gonna do about any of what you’re worried about. Beer? I don’t think anyone here is kept up at night worrying about the warming climate. But what’s the problem with discussing possible scenarios and outcomes? If you don’t like it skip over the posts. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now