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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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13 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Today's 12z Euro has Idalia making a second landfall in Boston next week :huh:

Franklin, Idalia, and Jose all circled the wagon in the Atlantic and brought zombie Gert back to life! :lol:

After a low of 62 yesterday, I made it up to 77 for a high... but the news of the day has been the dps down in the low 50s, making for probably one of the nicest days of late.  Finished the month of August with 3.78" of rain.

So far my low this morning has been 58 and it's currently 59 with dp 52.

ts-jose-two_atl_0d0-501am-09012023.png

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Great, got down to 48 this morning at the house.  Slept like a baby.  Need more of this early autumn weather . This 90+degree  is only going to raise my utility bills and serves no other purpose this late in the summer season. However, with little to no precip,  the leaves will also turn quickly this year but the  colors should be real nice.  No smoke, no fog.  real nice morning   Reminds me a lot of weather for the morning of 911.  

 

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So we finished August with our 3rd below normal month in the last 4 months. The maximum temperature we recorded here in East Nantmeal during the month of August was only 83.1 degrees on the 15th. This is the lowest maximum temp for the month of August ever recorded in Chester County. The old low max record was the 84 degree max from August 1927!
Here in Chester County we finished the summer months of June through August as the 13th coldest summer (70.3) since records began 130 years ago. If we look at the 4 warm months of May thru August we finished as the 8th coldest (67.3) 4-month spring/summer stretch since 1894. See the table below for both rankings. Rain wise the June-August period was the 27th wettest summer with 17.13" of rain.
I will be sure to post the stats for the other long running NWS COOP Chester County sites across the county later today.
As cool as it has been this summer...we are about to finally get a taste of summer now that we are starting the first month of autumn. We should see widespread 90+ temps from Monday through Wednesday before we cool down to closer to normal levels by next weekend.
image.png.31a979ed102c262184c6ed0f9edf8ed5.png
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2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Fantasycast has a hurricane crawling up to OBX betwen the 15th-17th.

TD-12 (potential "Katia" if it gets named) is up and running with the 11 am update.  It might not survive the trip across the Atlantic though.

Currently sunny with lots of blue sky and 73 with dp a nice 52.

144948_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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Made it up to 81 for a high yesterday just before 3:30 pm, but in contrast, I was already at a mostly sunny 83 so far this morning by 10:30 am, after a low of 64.

Had to give everything a good soaking this morning and it wasn't bad out despite the dp having crept up to 70.  Will see how close we get to any records for sites in the CWA -

Quote

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near record breaking heat is forecast for Monday thru
Thursday. Records for our climate sites are listed below:

Record High Temperatures
                 Mon Sept 4   Tue Sept 5   Wed Sept 6   Thu Sept 7
Site            Record/Year  Record/Year  Record/Year  Record/Year
Allentown (ABE)     94/1937      94/2018      96/1983      91/2016
AC Airport (ACY)    96/2018      93/1985      98/1983      94/1983
AC Marina (55N)     92/1985      94/1880      92/1985      92/1983
Georgetown (GED)    97/2008      93/2018      93/2018      94/1983
Mount Pocono (MPO)  88/1973      85/2018      88/2018      85/2015
Philadelphia (PHL)  93/2018      95/2018      95/2018     102/1881
Reading (RDG)       94/2008      93/2018      95/1943      97/1983
Trenton (TTN)       95/1929      95/1985      99/1983      94/1983
Wilmington (ILG)    95/2018      93/2018      98/1983      95/1983

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for NJZ014-
     024>026.
DE...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for DEZ004.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hoeflich/RCM
NEAR TERM...Hoeflich
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...Hoeflich/RCM
MARINE...Hoeflich/RCM
CLIMATE...PHI

 

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Top 20 Warmest Summer Months in Chester County (May through August) - no summers in this century and none at all with the exception of 1991 since 1955 that have cracked the Top 20!

Top 20 Warmest May - August Summers
Rank Year Avg Temp
1 1944 74.1
2 1943 73.9
3 1900 72.9
4 1911 72.4
5 1942 72.0
6 1918 71.8
7 1991 71.7
8 1898 71.5
9 1899 71.5
10 1959 71.4
11 1901 71.4
12 1906 71.4
13 1934 71.3
14 1955 71.2
15 1921 71.1
16 1941 71.0
17 1933 70.9
18 1922 70.9
19 1896 70.9
20 1908 70.9
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Here's pure West Chester data, note there are gaps particularly from 1992-1999, and unfortunately no data since 2017. These are the 10 warmest June - Augusts (met Summer).

1988 76.7
1987 76.3
2005 75.8
1968 75.6
1955 75.4
1959 75.2
1949 75.1
2010 75
2002 75
1952 75
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Off to the warmest morning low (71.1) here in East Nantmeal since July 28th which should be a nice launching pad to see if we can surpass 90 degrees for the 1st time since June 30, 2021 here in EN. If not today better chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.
Records for today High 94 (1964) / Low 44 (1987) / Rain 2.30" (1935)
image.png.3a4e58d701c0bde2df3f5c94d4b0f3e0.png
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the potential hurricane on the 15-17 is showing a lot of potential to be devastating along the east coast , especially to Long Island/NJ with tidal/surge flooding and tons of wind damage  Someone will have to start a new thread on this soon if the models continue in this direction. Flooding rains like Floyd is a dam good potential. This type of storm usually breaks the stagnant weather pattern we are in and ushers in some really cool fall air too. I do not wish for 6+ inch rains in 12 hours. The worst thing in the LV and eastern PA  is that any winds over 50 mph gusts will bring down thousands of dead ash tree/limbs everywhere that have been sitting dead for years from the ash borer. The debris dams in the streams and falling on the roads damage will be incredible from these ash trees.

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