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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread


Rtd208
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7 hours ago, Albedoman said:

the potential hurricane on the 15-17 is showing a lot of potential to be devastating along the east coast , especially to Long Island/NJ with tidal/surge flooding and tons of wind damage  Someone will have to start a new thread on this soon if the models continue in this direction. Flooding rains like Floyd is a dam good potential. This type of storm usually breaks the stagnant weather pattern we are in and ushers in some really cool fall air too. I do not wish for 6+ inch rains in 12 hours. The worst thing in the LV and eastern PA  is that any winds over 50 mph gusts will bring down thousands of dead ash tree/limbs everywhere that have been sitting dead for years from the ash borer. The debris dams in the streams and falling on the roads damage will be incredible from these ash trees.

GFS says get your sandbags, generators and chainsaws. Euro says enjoy the high waves and sunny skies. Both models have it as one hell of a storm though. 

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Not sure what the heck it is - outflow boundary? Trough?  Something has backed in and over me to dribble some non-measurable moisture over the area - enough to even generate a faint rainbow!

It's currently overcast with some breaks in the cloud deck, and 89 with dp now up to 74 thanks to something wringing out some moisture out of the dampish-dry clouds!

kdix_20230904_2301_BR_0.41.png

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58 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Not sure what the heck it is - outflow boundary? Trough?  Something has backed in and over me to dribble some non-measurable moisture over the area - enough to even generate a faint rainbow!

It's currently overcast with some breaks in the cloud deck, and 89 with dp now up to 74 thanks to something wringing out some moisture out of the dampish-dry clouds!

kdix_20230904_2301_BR_0.41.png

Made it to 89F here, but the humidity is definitely creeping up. DP 68 currently.

From Mt. Holly regarding those showers:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 6:20pm...Shortwave energy continues to dive south across the forecast area sparking some pulsy isolated to scattered rain showers extending from the Lehigh Valley to Ocean County.

CAPE values currently near 2500 j/kg with weak shear will allow these pulse-type showers to track south-southeastward over the next hour or two before waning around or just after sunset.

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31 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Made it to 89F here, but the humidity is definitely creeping up. DP 68 currently.

From Mt. Holly regarding those showers:

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...

As of 6:20pm...Shortwave energy continues to dive south across the forecast area sparking some pulsy isolated to scattered rain showers extending from the Lehigh Valley to Ocean County.

CAPE values currently near 2500 j/kg with weak shear will allow these pulse-type showers to track south-southeastward over the next hour or two before waning around or just after sunset.

Thanks!  It was certainly a bit unexpected given the angle it was moving (from NE -> SW).  It didn't really show that clearly on radar outside of being a thin darker green band that moved over the city - similar to how I've seen the marine layer move inland.

So far I've dropped down to 82 at post time with dp 73.  Critters (crickets and katydids) are making a racket.

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3 RERs today -

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 042138
RERPHL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0536 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 2008.


$$ 

HOEFLICH

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 042137
RERRDG

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0536 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT READING PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 WAS SET AT READING PA TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1898.


$$

HOEFLICH

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 042138 RRA
RERILG

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0536 PM EDT MON SEP 04 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT WILMINGTON DE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT WILMINGTON DE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 2018.


$$

HOEFLICH

 

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37 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Thanks!  It was certainly a bit unexpected given the angle it was moving (from NE -> SW).  It didn't really show that clearly on radar outside of being a thin darker green band that moved over the city - similar to how I've seen the marine layer move inland.

So far I've dropped down to 82 at post time with dp 73.  Critters (crickets and katydids) are making a racket.

The ones here are putting on a concert, quite impressive! Even a couple of lightning bugs for a visual effects bonus!

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Most spots reached the low 90's yesterday and should get close to that same level today. Here in East Nantmeal we were oh so close 89.4 degrees!! But, will have to hope today or tomorrow to reach the elusive 90 degree mark. My rooftop station (Tempest) did reach 92.1 degrees for the 3rd time this year... but both properly sited ground stations could do not better than 89.6 (Ambient) and 89.4. (Davis VP)
Records for today: High 95 (1898) / Low 42 (1988) / Rain 3.47" (1979)
image.png.567edf80ce97fafe4125c6cc412f59b1.png
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We were actually a little bit "cooler" across most locations in Chester County yesterday compared to Monday with more spots falling short of the 90 degree mark. Today and tomorrow should for almost all locations (exception likely being East Nantmeal) see temps into the low 90's.
Records for today: High 96 (1900) / Low 38 (1924) / Rain 2.96" (2008)
image.png.5f56a4adeee07f8ab34a34a707b4976e.png
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Idalia remnant clouds kept the temp lower here yesterday compared to Monday so I only hit 92 but that did become "day 3" marking what would be my 4th heatwave since July (none in August).

Bottomed out at 75 as a low this morning and am off to the races this morning where it is currently mostly sunny and 88 with dp 74.

Am keeping an eye on Lee.

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And have now hit 90 just past 10:30 am, with dp 74.  Am currently back down to 88 at post time.

Couple RERs yesterday for multiple things -

Record high -

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 052143 RRA
RERACY

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0541 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 WAS SET AT ATLANTIC CITY NJ TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 1985.


$$

HOEFLICH

Ties for highs -

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 052143
RERGED

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0541 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GEORGETOWN DE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 WAS SET AT GEORGETOWN DE TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 1961.


$$

HOEFLICH

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 052141
RERMPO

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0541 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 85 WAS SET AT MOUNT POCONO PA TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 85 SET IN 1954.


$$

HOEFLICH

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 052142
RERRDG

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0541 PM EDT TUE SEP 05 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT READING PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 93 WAS SET AT READING PA TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 1961.


$$

HOEFLICH

And KPHL with a record high min yesterday morning -

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 060726
RERPHL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 AM EDT WED SEP 6 2023

...RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE OF 78 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE 
PHILADELPHIA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON TUESDAY SEPTEMBER 5, 2023. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 76 DEGREES SET IN 1880.

$$

RCM

 

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The race is on in the GFS models. Who can get here in our region first? The midwestern trough or Hurricane Lee? Right now, latest model runs the last 24 hours is leaning for steering the midwestern trough into  Quebec  much sooner. The quicker that trough moves, the more blocky the low pressure becomes in the Canadian maritimes thus forcing Hurricane Lee to hit the east coast in our region.  Realistically, small changes in speed in the upper air flow for this trough will make all the difference in the world for this hurricane path.  We really will not know until 3-5 days out. Its just like predicting a nor'easter for our area right now. If this situation and current weather pattern continues, it is a tell tale sign for this upcoming winter as  we will be hugging the model runs to death with many late night 00z model run synopsis by all posters  of how these numerous coastal storms will pan out. The important model run for this Hurricane is next Monday nights 00Z run.  The hype will begin over the weekend 

 

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

The race is on in the GFS models. Who can get here in our region first? The midwestern trough or Hurricane Lee? Right now, latest model runs the last 24 hours is leaning for steering the midwestern trough into  Quebec  much sooner. The quicker that trough moves, the more blocky the low pressure becomes in the Canadian maritimes thus forcing Hurricane Lee to hit the east coast in our region.  Realistically, small changes in speed in the upper air flow for this trough will make all the difference in the world for this hurricane path.  We really will not know until 3-5 days out. Its just like predicting a nor'easter for our area right now. If this situation and current weather pattern continues, it is a tell tale sign for this upcoming winter as  we will be hugging the model runs to death with many late night 00z model run synopsis by all posters  of how these numerous coastal storms will pan out. The important model run for this Hurricane is next Monday nights 00Z run.  The hype will begin over the weekend 

 

Good post thanks. 

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One more day of 90+ temps across much of the county before rain chances increase with showers possible starting this evening through the weekend. Some models have well over an inch of needed rain by Monday morning. We have only seen one day with measurable rain in the last 12 days and that was only 0.09" on the 30th.
Records for today: High 93 (1954) / Low 37 (1924) / Rain 2.57" (2011)
image.png.f72044f0a847bbdf6e41e947745eb1e2.png
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Here we go -

Quote

Severe Thunderstorm Watch

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 673
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
105 PM EDT THU SEP 7 2023

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 673 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

PAC001-011-015-017-025-027-029-035-037-041-043-055-057-061-067-
069-071-075-077-079-081-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-107-
109-113-115-117-119-127-131-133-080100-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0673.230907T1705Z-230908T0100Z/

PA
.    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BERKS               BRADFORD
BUCKS                CARBON              CENTRE
CHESTER              CLINTON             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             FRANKLIN
FULTON               HUNTINGDON          JUNIATA
LACKAWANNA           LANCASTER           LEBANON
LEHIGH               LUZERNE             LYCOMING
MIFFLIN              MONROE              MONTGOMERY
MONTOUR              NORTHAMPTON         NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY                PHILADELPHIA        PIKE
SCHUYLKILL           SNYDER              SULLIVAN
SUSQUEHANNA          TIOGA               UNION
WAYNE                WYOMING             YORK
$$

I made it up to 93 as a high yesterday and had a low of 72 this morning.  It's currently mostly sunny 94 with cumulus starting to bubble in and a dp of 75.  This is day 5 of the heatwave here.

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Bunch of RERs yesterday (ties) -

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 062134 RRB
RERGED

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0532 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GEORGETOWN DE...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 96 WAS SET AT GEORGETOWN DE TODAY.
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 93 SET IN 2014.

$$

MPS

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 062134
RERPHL

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0532 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 WAS SET AT PHILADELPHIA PA TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1983.

$$

MPS

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 062134 RRA
RERRDG

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
0532 PM EDT WED SEP 06 2023

...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT READING PA...

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 WAS SET AT READING PA TODAY.
THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 95 SET IN 1943.

$$

MPS

 

Quote

000
SXUS71 KPHI 071616 RRA
RER55N

RECORD EVENT REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1215 PM EDT THU SEP 07 2023

...RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE SET AT THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA...

A RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE OF 77 DEGREES WAS SET AT THE 
ATLANTIC CITY MARINA TUESDAY. THIS BREAKS THE DAILY RECORD OF 76 
DEGREES SET IN 2014. TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT THE ATLANTIC CITY MARINA 
DATE BACK TO DECEMBER OF 1873.

$$

STAARMANN/DEAL

Finally got chance to peep at the doppler and some nasty-looking cells have popped up.

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On 9/6/2023 at 11:30 AM, Albedoman said:

The race is on in the GFS models. Who can get here in our region first? The midwestern trough or Hurricane Lee? Right now, latest model runs the last 24 hours is leaning for steering the midwestern trough into  Quebec  much sooner. The quicker that trough moves, the more blocky the low pressure becomes in the Canadian maritimes thus forcing Hurricane Lee to hit the east coast in our region.  Realistically, small changes in speed in the upper air flow for this trough will make all the difference in the world for this hurricane path.  We really will not know until 3-5 days out. Its just like predicting a nor'easter for our area right now. If this situation and current weather pattern continues, it is a tell tale sign for this upcoming winter as  we will be hugging the model runs to death with many late night 00z model run synopsis by all posters  of how these numerous coastal storms will pan out. The important model run for this Hurricane is next Monday nights 00Z run.  The hype will begin over the weekend 

 

This looks like it is moving in your general vicinity!

 

kdix_20230907_1723_BR_0.41.png

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