mob1 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Landfall location and angle of approach look pretty bad for Cedar Key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst. 1 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Perry in the center of the NW eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, mob1 said: Landfall location and angle of approach look pretty bad for Cedar Key. Water levels are over 10' there now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Water levels are over 10' there now 6.21’ confirmed by Jim Cantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst. I agree, going to be bad. For sure in the top 5, especially for inland locations. Fast, or at least brisk forward motion over rather flat/marshy terrain at landfall will blunt dramatic reduction in the wind field for a while and it will tend to spread out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 3 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Radar returns of 60.5 dBZ showing up near Perry!!!! Wow that’s high for a TC Big blowup in convection in the NW eyewall as well. Impressive convection as the storm moves inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 23 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Does this track a little closer to Jacksonville? It jogged east and the models are showing an east jog this morning. Will pass closer to Jax than thought yesterday. Power has been flickering this morning already in Avondale. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 hours ago, GaWx said: -0Z CMC as expected in correction mode shifted vs the 12Z to the right significantly (~50 miles) to far NW Taylor County -0Z ICON vs 18Z shifted very slightly left (~5 miles) to SE Taylor County -0Z GFS vs 18Z shifted left 15 miles into far NW Taylor County -0Z UKMET about same as 18Z in south central Taylor County -0Z Euro vs 12Z shifted 20 miles right to C Taylor County *Edited to add Euro With a Keaton Beach landfall (south central Taylor County), the winners from the 0Z runs are the UKMET and ICON (just about perfect). The Euro was ~10 miles too far left/NW. The GFS and CMC were ~30 miles too far left/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Radar from Moody AFB Georgia. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Live video from Perry is pretty intense. Big live oaks breaking and snapping. Strengthening of the eye wall there also 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Strongest velocities look to be just east of Perry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, mob1 said: Strongest velocities look to be just east of Perry. And they’re intense, 125-130mph it looks like. Valdosta looks to catch a piece of this NW eye wall on the current trajectory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, SolidIcewx said: Live video from Perry is pretty intense. Big live oaks breaking and snapping. Strengthening of the eye wall there also Link by chance to take a look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Just now, DDweatherman said: Link by chance to take a look? Watched Reynolds Wolf from TWC. Right as a big gust was blowing through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, mob1 said: Landfall location and angle of approach look pretty bad for Cedar Key. They were told to leave and bucked the advice. Oh well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 4 minutes ago, mob1 said: Strongest velocities look to be just east of Perry. That’s a an issue with the radar beam angle I think. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wendy Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst. If there are any surprises it'll be the extent of devastation in Georgia 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Family is reporting flooding in Valdosta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Michael crushed parts of SW GA. It won’t be as intense as that, but the path of this and the slower weakening will help extend the damages 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: If there are any surprises it'll be the extent of devastation in Georgia Big concern for next few hours is does Valdosta get into the NW side of the core/remains of the eyewall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is going to be one of the worst canes in history for Georgia IMO...perhaps the worst. It likely will be THE worst in recorded history for Valdosta and nearby areas in a SW to NE corridor. Whereas it won't be the worst on record closer to the GA coast for wind, rain, or surge, it could very well end up being one of the worst on record there for winds for a storm coming up over land from the Gulf. That's why I'm concerned about what's to come here, especially ~3PM through 10PM. At a minimum, I expect to lose power for an extended period. I'm concerned about large branches and possibly whole trees coming down. Edit: I'm also concerned about isolated tornadoes from the outer feeder bands as they come ashore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 6 minutes ago, wendy said: Interesting. I wonder where they were. Maybe those high end velocities didn’t mix down efficiently bc radar showed 130+ mph in the NE eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Still very vigorous convention in NW eyewall on IR and Radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Perry, FL ASOS gusted to M82 mph. Looks like it might be having power issues. Not sending consistent METARs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 13 minutes ago, wendy said: Look at all of those palm fronds on the road! Pretty lame winds for the eyewall of a Cat 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 Whats left of the eye is headed right for the Valdosta GA area. Bad situation for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 30, 2023 Share Posted August 30, 2023 NDBC advised a couple of the C-MAN stations had the anemometers fail as Idalia made landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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