hawkeye_wx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: 970.5mb extrapolated pressure. FL and SFMR not impressive with peak of 53kt at FL and 63kt SFMR. First pass though. Recon data doesn't look much better than earlier. Dropsonde will probably say a 1 or 2 mb drop, that's all. No wind in the nw eyewall isn't what I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Intensewind002 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, BretWx said: This looks a bit.... like something we've seen before.... Never use the NAM for hurricanes… 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Kinda looks like it is having trouble wrapping the deep convection around the eye. Surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Dropsonde was 972mb with 5kt wind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM I don't think the second part will be right obviously, but the dry air as a limiting factor for intensity could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, a5ehren said: Kinda looks like it is having trouble wrapping the deep convection around the eye. Surprised. Hurricanes are fickle. The environment has to be pristine for upper end 4-5s. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, Kevin Reilly said: I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM There is no way it goes that far south. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Continuing the pass into the SE eyewall, recon found FL winds between 84-91kts. That’s legit. Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Covidea Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 26 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Ok, confusion cleared up. Recon IS in the air and is starting to fly toward the center in a likely NW to SE pass. Coming out of Ft. Lauderdale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 First VDM--eyewall open in the NW Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 29th day of the month at 20:26ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: IdaliaStorm Number & Year: 10 in 2023 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 11Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 20:21:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.91N 84.82WB. Center Fix Location: 190 statute miles (306 km) to the WSW (255°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,879m (9,446ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 972mb (28.71 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 205° at 5kts (From the SSW at 6mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 63kts (72.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 34° at 53kts (From between the NNE and NE at 61.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles to the NW (312°) of center fix at 20:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 69kts (79.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (136°) of center fix at 20:25:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 237° at 91kts (From the WSW at 104.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix at 20:26:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,067m (10,062ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 14°C (57°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the SE (135°) from the flight level center at 20:26:30Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Pretty hard to not find at least some decent winds with a 970 pressure. Like others have said it takes near perfect conditions to creat a 5. The classic is Katrina going from a cat one to a 5 while passing right over this same area. You knew Katrina meant business when it exited the SW coast of FL more organized than when it came in on the SE coast. That storm just had the look from the get go. Classic "brown ocean" intensification while tracking across the Everglades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 First SVR warning of the day here, just SW in Osceola County. Saw some good structure 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 31 minutes ago, CCHurricane said: One for the history books if Idalia makes landfall as a major. Also looks like relative to history, the area has been long overdue. Apalachee Bay Hurricane Landfalls Hermine (2016) - Category 1 Alma (1966) - Category 1 Unnamed (1941) - Category 1 Unnamed (1935) - Category 2 Unnamed (1899) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1886) - Category 2 Unnamed (1882) - Category 1 Unnamed (1880) - Category 1 Unnamed (1873) - Category 1 Unnamed (1867) - Category 1 Unnamed (1852) - Category 2 Maybe this won't end up as a major H landfall. Fingers crossed! Perhaps their climo says that there are geographic factors that make it extremely difficult and that that will come into play for Idalia. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Idalia is trying hard based on satellite and radar. Really thought by this time (late afternoon) we would have started to see an eye starting to pop and clear out on satellite. So far recon is not overly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Having an open eyewall stunts intensification, but it doesn't stop it of course. I'm interested in what recon finds in the other three quadrants. It's clearly intensifying based on that SE pass and IR. It could also be the case that the winds are trying to catch up to the pressure falls. NHC may up the winds at 5pm just like they did earlier on the assumption the NE quad will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Welp 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 26.1°N 84.8°WMoving: N at 16 mphMin pressure: 972 mbMax sustained: 100 mph CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's River northward to Edisto Beach. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach, Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 They just said 100, but that’s not based on findings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Idalia is a CAT 2 now 100 mph winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 100? Could have fooled me. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 The first pass is interesting because it’s suggestive of a storm that is extremely imbalanced but not necessarily weak. Large swatch of strong flight level winds and the wind gradient was steep exiting into the SE eyewall. As this burst continues will be interesting to see winds in the other quads. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Wasn’t this always supposed to be a weaker hurricane that had sheer issues holding back intensification? I remember saying this like four days ago. I know it got hyped up in the last 48 hours but this is playing out exactly as planned. 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: 100? Could have fooled me. I am a bit suprised based on recon findings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 There's a nasty feeder band about to come through my house in Boca Raton. Should get interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Welp 5:00 PM EDT Tue Aug 29Location: 26.1°N 84.8°WMoving: N at 16 mphMin pressure: 972 mbMax sustained: 100 mph CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the mouth of the St. Mary's River northward to Edisto Beach. A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, North Carolina, as well as the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River northward to Surf City, North Carolina. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Surf City to the North Carolina/Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. The Hurricane Watch from Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key has been discontinued. The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued south of Bonita Beach, Florida. Ouch! Hurricane watch GA and lower SC coast. Hope this is overdone but it has been a worry. Hopefully the struggles of the storm that have been mentioned here are actually going to keep it from reaching major status. But it isn't looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 I been told they are using drones to also recon Idalia. That data set is not available to the public. It’s possible they got the 100mph reading using other methods instead of Recon Hunters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 29, 2023 Author Share Posted August 29, 2023 91kts FL is what they based it on, along with the pretense that the NE quad has not been sampled yet. Decent strengthening from the last pass, but perhaps not as rapid as models had indicated. However, the storm is in good shape for more robust strengthening tonight. Still think an intensity of 110-115kts is a pretty reasonable guess for landfall. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023 500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023 The first stages of an eye have been taking shape in visible satellite imagery. The hurricane has a relatively small Central Dense Overcast and a prominent band of deep convection extending over the eastern semicircle, reaching across the Florida peninsula southward across western Cuba. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft just measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 91 kt with the pressure falling to 972 mb. The initial intensity is therefore set at 85 kt. Idalia is moving faster toward the north, or 360/14 kt, between a mid-level trough over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico and a subtropical ridge over the Greater Antilles. Idalia is expected to continue moving northward and turn north-northeastward as it approaches the Big Bend region of Florida during the next 12-24 hours. There is very little spread among the track guidance, and the NHC official forecast has been placed very close to the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids during the first 24 hours. This has resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the previous forecast, although it should be stressed that additional shifts to the track will be possible until the center reaches land. After landfall, Idalia is expected to turn toward the northeast and then east, moving near or along the coast of Georgia and the Carolinas in 36-48 hours. Uncertainty in the track forecast is still quite large after 48 hours, with many of the global models turning Idalia southward, while some of the regional hurricane models still show the storm moving out to sea. As a result, the official track forecast continues to show slow motion on days 4 and 5. The 12-hour intensity forecast shows a 100-kt major hurricane. It is imperative to realize that Idalia is expected to continue strengthening beyond that time, possibly close to the 110 kt shown in the previous forecast, before the center reaches land. Weakening is expected after landfall, but due to the system's expected fast motion, it is possible that Idalia could maintain hurricane intensity as it moves across southern Georgia and approaches the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina. After Idalia's center moves offshore over the western Atlantic, strong shear is likely to limit re-intensification, and the official forecast essentially flatlines the intensity on days 2-5. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be prepared for long-duration power outages. Damaging hurricane-force winds are possible in portions of eastern Georgia and southeastern South Carolina where Hurricane Watches are in effect. 3. Areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally considerable impacts, are expected across the Florida Big Bend, central Georgia and South Carolina, through eastern North Carolina later tonight into Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 84.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 28.3N 84.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 31.0N 82.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 31/0600Z 32.9N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1800Z 33.9N 77.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER 60H 01/0600Z 33.8N 74.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 33.3N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 32.3N 69.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 31.7N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 So a random 91kt FL wind at 700mb translates to 100mph at the surface? Not sure how I feel about that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 29, 2023 Share Posted August 29, 2023 From 5PM NHC discussion: "This has resulted in a westward shift of about 20-25 n mi compared to the previous forecast" This makes sense based on 12Z model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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