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Hurricane Idalia


hlcater
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Clearly seems to be beginning an ERC which will probably help the wind-aspect of this system for coastal Florida.

Also, if that is the case, could cause weakening once inland a little more quickly than expected.

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34 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Definite weakening trend 

Heading towards the Gulf Half-a-canes we used to see before Michael, looks like dry air eroding the east side. It’s probably a 120mph storm at this point. Thankfully it’s hitting a sparsely populated area for the worst surge but the inland effects will be pretty serious with the winds. 

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Looks like the beach just SSW of Perry is going to be ground zero for landfall in about 90 minutes, given the NNE motion at 18 mph with 125 mph winds, as the storm weakened a touch...

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
700 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...7 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data 
indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun.  Idalia's 
maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  This change in wind speed does not diminish the 
threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds. 

The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 83.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

image.thumb.png.a4828087824bbfe3bf372aaaf8b95597.png

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Eye might be benefitting from frictional convergence. Donut again from Tampa radar. This is not a rapidly weakening storm like a lot of the gulf halfacanes we used to see. I think this is steady state making landfall after a higher end peak a few hours ago

Yea, that fluctuation over the past couple of hours will be pretty trivial in the grand scheme of things.

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It actually looks like land interaction may have offset or stopped the ERC as the inner eyewall again looks dominant. We saw this with Ida in Louisiana. Interesting stuff going on here. Definitely a high-end 3 making landfall. Radar, sat, velocities all confirm this. Thank god this is coming into a sparsely populated area

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Just now, NorthHillsWx said:

Also, eyewall lighting is picking back up. It sputtered for a minute but this isn’t coming in much below peak at all. Major wind threat inland though from reports it looks like it will be a very narrow corridor

Winds (the real damaging aspect anyways) should just be within eyewall.  Obviously outside of that will have gusts to hurricane force. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Winds (the real damaging aspect anyways) should just be within eyewall.  Obviously outside of that will have gusts to hurricane force. 

Charley could be a similar analog (though that storm was slightly stronger) as to what this wind damage corridor will look like. Extreme wind damage to very little just a few miles away

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