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July 16, 2023 Flooding & Tornado Potential


WxWatcher007
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23 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Models backed off the extremes. Seems progressive now rather than training 

Actually some encouraging signals with this. Not sure if totally sold on that yet though. I'm a little worried this all slows to a crawl once it gets over Connecticut and then gets enhanced with the increasing LLJ. 

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

So much embedded rotation within this stuff as it enters Connecticut. Plenty of llvl CAPE with enlarging hodos 

image.thumb.png.6a7da9abf2ea54aa809689a666eb5979.pngimage.thumb.png.d6bd230cc8352a64caf0a959ae637187.png

It's looking like it's going to be an active day man. High res seems a little more muted compared to those weenie epic flooding runs last night, but 1) as you said we could see this slow up a bit over CT later this morning and 2) it's going to be highly efficient at producing precipitation. Won't take much for a 1-2"/hr period. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

It's looking like it's going to be an active day man. High res seems a little more muted compared to those weenie epic flooding runs last night, but 1) as you said we could see this slow up a bit over CT later this morning and 2) it's going to be highly efficient at producing precipitation. Won't take much for a 1-2"/hr period. 

I think those epic solutions we were seeing are hinting at what the max totals will be but thankfully those totals should not be as widespread as advertised. All really going to come down to how progressive this can remain. LLJ is strengthening as we speak so we're going to see a greater flux of inflow too. 

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