LongBeachSurfFreak Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Usually the city does fairly well and it’s only the island that gets screwed. But wow, we can’t buy decent rain on the uws. Just a couple showers today. It’s, not over though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 1 minute ago, MANDA said: Training continues over my area. Up to 1.7" for the day. Based on radar another round coming in shortly. 1.86” here so far. Light rain currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 welp that blew thru quick, better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 29 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that outflow boundary setting up across central nj should be a nice focus for the next round tonight HRRR for later this evening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Yeah 18z 3k and 18z Hrrr both agree on a mcs like feature swinging through in a few hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Usually the city does fairly well and it’s only the island that gets screwed. But wow, we can’t buy decent rain on the uws. Just a couple showers today. It’s, not over though. 2 thunderstorms that only got .4” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 49 minutes ago, forkyfork said: that outflow boundary setting up across central nj should be a nice focus for the next round tonight Hopefully it actually includes the city kinda annoying just being 20 miles to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Parts of north jersey going to end up with 6-7 inches of rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Parts of north jersey going to end up with 6-7 inches of rain the crazy nam replacement run didn't nail the location but it's doing a good job with amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Zero for all of the island, despite what Upton says Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Rmine1 said: Agreed. Air mass is too stable along the coast. Not expecting any rain in SW Suffolk theres a HWO by the SPC putting basically the western half of LI for marginal risk of severe TS. Ain’t happening Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous. Yeah, I don’t get why Upton is still at 70% for the overnight here. Complete BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: Yeah, I don’t get why Upton is still at 70% for the overnight here. Complete BS Watch it happen while you sleep lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Rounds of heavy rain continue. Near constant low rumbling thunder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Watch it happen while you sleep lol There could be a random shower cluster like we had this morning but we have zero shot at anything like NJ’s getting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Watch it happen while you sleep lol Nah. Worst setup for severe on the island. Plus it’s been nothing but low clouds here all day. Nothing to fire up any convection Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Just now, jm1220 said: There could be a random shower cluster like we had this morning but we have zero shot at anything like NJ’s getting. I didn’t even have that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 Chased a heavy storm from Cabellas all the way back. Roads are flooding in Long Valley. Expecting the basement to start flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Picard Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 I'm up to 1.46" on the day. Surprised it's not more, but I'd rather get it pieces, and not 7" at once. The line just keeps re-loading to my south. I've now observed constant thunder and lightening for the past four hours. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Picard said: I'm up to 1.46" on the day. Surprised it's not more, but I'd rather get it pieces, and not 7" at once. The line just keeps re-loading to my south. I've now observed constant thunder and lightening for the past four hours. Pretty much same here. About 2” on the day. Same constant rumbling thunder. Heavy rain cones in waves. Based on radar looks to be taking a break for my area now. No real additional new development to my south now and skies brightening to the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 26, 2023 Share Posted June 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, MANDA said: Pretty much same here. About 2” on the day. Same constant rumbling thunder. Heavy rain cones in waves. Based on radar looks to be taking a break for my area now. No real additional new development to my south now and skies brightening to the south. Same here as well. Convection seems to be working up along preexisting boundaries left over from earlier storms. Have received over 2.5” here with large variations across the area in amounts due to the mesoscale processes taking place. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 I wish Upton would come to its senses and drop the rain forecast for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Tatamy said: Same here as well. Convection seems to be working up along preexisting boundaries left over from earlier storms. Have received over 2.5” here with large variations across the area in amounts due to the mesoscale processes taking place. Been watching the Easton and Allentown area and that area looks to be getting super soaked since late this morning. Still ongoing there now with a fresh wave of heavy rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: I wish Upton would come to its senses and drop the rain forecast for LI Read their discussions they haven’t had much hope for rain east of nyc for days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, MANDA said: Been watching the Easton and Allentown area and that area looks to be getting super soaked since late this morning. Still ongoing there now with a fresh wave of heavy rain. It sure is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Read their discussions they haven’t had much hope for rain east of nyc for days now It must be raining IYBY, because you’re not flailing about the weather like I am! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 23 minutes ago, Rmine1 said: It must be raining IYBY, because you’re not flailing about the weather like I am! So true…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June. Unsettled weather will likely continue through Wednesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy. Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included: Austin: 105° Brownsville: 99° Corpus Christi: 101° ***Record 5th 100° day in June*** Cotulla: 112° (old record: 109°, 2012) Del Rio: 111° (old record: 109°, 2012) ***9th consecutive record high*** Houston: 97° Junction: 106° Laredo: 109° McAllen: 103° Rio Grande Village: 118° (old record: 112°, 2011 and 2012) San Angelo: 112° (old record: 108°, 1918, 1994, and 2012) Victoria: 99° Zapata: 109° (old record: 108°, 1980) At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was +16.24 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today. On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.486 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj08822 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 59 minutes ago, Tatamy said: It sure is. More incoming for parts of the Lehigh Valley and western NJ after a brief break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 It's gonna be a stormy night. I think NYC East cashes in on the stuff in the delmarva (nothing svr imo) after midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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