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Stormlover74
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2 hours ago, Rmine1 said:

Agreed. Air mass is too stable along the coast. Not expecting any rain in SW Suffolk

theres a HWO by the SPC putting basically the western half of LI for marginal risk of severe TS. Ain’t happening 

Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous. 

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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Should just have the map zoom in and have any threat go to zero across the Hudson, maybe a little to the east. Maybe there’s a tiny chance some MCS feature can survive east of the city but otherwise our odds here are none with this stuff over NJ now. That area’s been favored for days and the models a few days ago showing widespread 2-4”+ for the whole metro were trash. We normally have a coastal drought pattern in the summer but this is ridiculous. 

Yeah, I don’t get why Upton is still at 70% for the overnight here. Complete BS

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9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Watch it happen while you sleep lol

Nah. Worst setup for severe on the island. Plus it’s been nothing but low clouds here all day. Nothing to fire up any convection 

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6 minutes ago, Picard said:

I'm up to 1.46" on the day.  Surprised it's not more, but I'd rather get it pieces, and not 7" at once.

The line just keeps re-loading to my south.   I've now observed constant thunder and lightening for the past four hours.  

Pretty much same here.  About 2” on the day.  Same constant rumbling thunder.  Heavy rain cones in waves. Based on radar looks to be taking a break for my area now.  No real additional new development to my south now and skies brightening to the south.

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12 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Pretty much same here.  About 2” on the day.  Same constant rumbling thunder.  Heavy rain cones in waves. Based on radar looks to be taking a break for my area now.  No real additional new development to my south now and skies brightening to the south.

Same here as well.  Convection seems to be working up along preexisting boundaries left over from earlier storms.  Have received over 2.5” here with large variations across the area in amounts due to the mesoscale processes taking place.

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8 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Same here as well.  Convection seems to be working up along preexisting boundaries left over from earlier storms.  Have received over 2.5” here with large variations across the area in amounts due to the mesoscale processes taking place.

Been watching the Easton and Allentown area and that area looks to be getting super soaked since late this morning.  Still ongoing there now with a fresh wave of heavy rain.

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8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Read their discussions they haven’t had much hope for rain east of nyc for days now 

It must be raining IYBY, because you’re not flailing about the weather like I am!

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An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through the remainder of June.

Unsettled weather will likely continue through Wednesday. The temperature will approach seasonable levels tomorrow before cooling slightly. It will be humid with scattered showers and thundershowers tomorrow, some of which could be heavy.

Parts of Texas remain in the midst of an extreme heat event. High temperatures included:

Austin: 105°
Brownsville: 99°
Corpus Christi: 101° ***Record 5th 100° day in June***
Cotulla: 112° (old record: 109°, 2012)
Del Rio: 111° (old record: 109°, 2012) ***9th consecutive record high***
Houston: 97°
Junction: 106°
Laredo: 109°
McAllen: 103°
Rio Grande Village: 118° (old record: 112°, 2011 and 2012)
San Angelo: 112° (old record: 108°, 1918, 1994, and 2012)
Victoria: 99°
Zapata: 109° (old record: 108°, 1980)

At present, there is little indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.9°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.0°C for the week centered around June 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.77°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer.

The SOI was +16.24 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.596 today.

On June 24 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.420 (RMM). The June 23-adjusted amplitude was 1.486 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.1° (1.7° below normal).

 

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