Wxoutlooksblog Posted June 13, 2023 Share Posted June 13, 2023 We could talk about if El Nino wasn't setting up but I think things would be very different right now if that wasn't happening. Entering into El Nino will not be good if you like a long hot summer here. Once the El Nino is established or weakening could also be a very different story. WX/PT 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 6/13 EWR: 83 LGA: 81 TEB: 81 JFK: 80 BLM: 80 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 PHL: 79 ISP: 78 NYC: 78 TTN: 77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 An extended period of generally cooler than normal temperatures is ongoing. No return to summerlike heat is likely through at least the first three weeks of June. Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and a bit cooler. Some showers and thundershowers are possible. Texas could see near record and record heat develop during the middle and latter part of the week. Already, Laredo saw a near record 110° high today. At present, there is no indication that this heat will move into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. The latest ECMWF weeklies continue to show no significant heat until at least late in the month. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +0.9°C for the week centered around June 7. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +2.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C. El Niño conditions have developed and will likely continue to strengthen through at least the summer. The SOI was -1.69 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.601 today. On June 11 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.384 (RMM). The June 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.359 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 71.0° (0.8° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 All this cool talk but I think June still would've been slightly AN using the older averages and May definitely would've been AN. But I guess less hot is the new cool nowadays 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 9 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: All this cool talk but I think June still would've been slightly AN using the older averages and May definitely would've been AN. But I guess less hot is the new cool nowadays Yes. Which goes back to the old debate about using the most recent 20 or 30 years for "averages" but using all of recording history for the "records". 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 The next 8 days are averaging 72degs.(64/81) or near Normal. Reached 84 here yesterday at 6pm. Today: 72-75, wind sw., cloudy, rain by 1pm?, 63 tomorrow AM. 66*(82%RH) here at 7am{65 at 6am}. 68* at 9am. 70* at 10am. 69* at Noon with a shower. 73* at 4pm. and sun is out. Reached 78* at 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 72/60 and mostly sunny (for now) as clouds and showers are to the EPA border. Showers some storms this morning into the afternoon. Clouds and rain should cap temps in the md 70s. Thu (6/15) a warmer redo of Tue , mostly sunny and stunning near / low 80s. Fri (6/16) a redo of today perhaps a bit more widespread showers and storms as the ULL moves through Upstate NY into SNE. Storms and clouds stubborn and lingering into the split of the weekend with most of Sat cloudy with showers / storms. Probably some breaks in the clouds at times but not a great day. Fathers day looking dry and very pleasant near 80 / low 80s. 6/19 - 6/26 Ridge and heat continues to build into the Rockies, TX / Southern Plains, as the ridge builds and heat pushes over the north into Southern Canada, a cut off trough into the W Carolinas/VA pushes an onshore flow into the area. This is more reminiscent of Memorial day low a bit north. So clouds and showers are closer by especially southern sections but some nicer / drier days in between. The brunt of the rain axis looks south into VA/NC/MD. We'll see. The Southern Cali pattern continues but have seen similar Junes progress this way with big heat into Canada before building down and then the W/ Atlantic Ridge builds west, Beyond, as this cut off and associated lows lifts out and the flow comes around to the N/NW heat into Southern Canada could setup the next warm period to close the month. We'll see if the tendency is to cut off another trough into the Northeast. But overall a warmer look as there isn't much cool air around outside the onshore flow. spinning wheel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1988) NYC: 99 (1956) LGA: 99 (1956) Lows: EWR: 49 (1978) NYC: 49 (1875) LGA: 51 (1978) Historical: 1903 - The Heppner Disaster occurred in Oregon. A cloudburst in the hills sent a flood down Willow Creek, and a twenty foot wall of water swept away a third of the town in minutes, killing 236 residents and causing 100 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1961 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco, CA, soared to 106 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thirty-two cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, tied their record for June, and the high of 101 at Milwaukee WI marked their first 100 degree reading in 32 years. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to South Texas, drenching McAllen with 3.2 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm soaked the town of Uncertain with 2.3 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf States to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. There were 62 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds caused 28 million dollars damage in Montgomery County MD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Dark Star said: Yes. Which goes back to the old debate about using the most recent 20 or 30 years for "averages" but using all of recording history for the "records". Yes, this always annoyed me. Why don't we use the whole history for our averages? We can easily look at a graph and see that the past x #'s of years are trending up, etc. to see a trend. 11 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: All this cool talk but I think June still would've been slightly AN using the older averages and May definitely would've been AN. But I guess less hot is the new cool nowadays The further west you went June would have been below for that period too, but we are several years past older averages, time to move on. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 @forkyfork how do you think we do today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 Just looks like some showers but I'll take the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Just looks like some showers but I'll take the rain No hail anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: No hail anymore? No idea just going by what the radar looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 13 minutes ago, Allsnow said: No hail anymore? That's possible but it would be very isolated. For most of us it's just this band of showers that will be moving through shortly that will deliver a tenth to quarter inch of rain at most. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: That's possible but it would be very isolated. For most of us it's just this band of showers that will be moving through shortly that will deliver a tenth to quarter inch of rain at most. Yawner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Euripides Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's possible but it would be very isolated. For most of us it's just this band of showers that will be moving through shortly that will deliver a tenth to quarter inch of rain at most. My lawn along with everyone else's will take what we can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Yawner the early band of showers may kill any severe threat later... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: That's possible but it would be very isolated. For most of us it's just this band of showers that will be moving through shortly that will deliver a tenth to quarter inch of rain at most. Yup. Rain just started here. I'm hoping for .25" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: No hail anymore? Hail reported on Radarscope in that cell just west of Piscataway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, FPizz said: Hail reported on Radarscope in that cell just west of Piscataway Yeah I can hear a little thunder from that storm that's missing me just to the west. Some isolated cells in this band of showers so a few people will get lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: @forkyfork how do you think we do today? .5" in spots 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 21 minutes ago, FPizz said: Hail reported on Radarscope in that cell just west of Piscataway 17 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I can hear a little thunder from that storm that's missing me just to the west. Some isolated cells in this band of showers so a few people will get lucky. Yup. Looks like we are just a bit too far southeast. Thunder here with very little rain. Looks out nyc and northeast jersey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 14, 2023 Author Share Posted June 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yup. Looks like we are just a bit too far southeast. Thunder here with very little rain. Looks out nyc and northeast jersey Missed me by like 3 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Missed me by like 3 miles Today has been more disappointing then Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 4 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Today has been more disappointing then Monday It's a little disappointing but I don't get my hopes up too much when it's only going to be a slight chance with isolated cells. We're only in a marginal risk area so today was never expected to be a big deal. A few spots are getting lucky and getting more than the light rain amounts. At least we have another chance on friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 hail in springfield 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 Just now, winterwx21 said: It's a little disappointing but I don't get my hopes up too much when it's only going to be a slight chance with isolated cells. We're only in a marginal risk area so today was never expected to be a big deal. A few spots are getting lucky and getting more than the light rain amounts. Not even enough here to knock the dust down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted June 14, 2023 Share Posted June 14, 2023 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Not even enough here to knock the dust down Same here but we still have more of this band of showers to come through. Hopefully we'll get at least a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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