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May obs/discussion thread - Welcome to Severe Season!!


weatherwiz
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19 minutes ago, tunafish said:

74 off a low of 33.  I will have to check... might be my only 40° swing in 5 years at this location.

That’s a good day. These are probably some of my favorite temps during the high sun angle. First week of August sun angle, with 70s coupled with clear crisp mornings.

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12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

70/28 is amazing.  21% RH and breezy.

 

70/27 here, 2nd 40+ range of the year (62/21 on 4/10).  Might've been close today as the low was ~40 but thanks to Alberta I think we stay well short of 80.  We're cloud-free but the sun is filtered thru upper-level smoke - at least it's high enough that there's no aroma.
Ash and basswood have 1" new growth, oaks with 2" leaves, sugar maple leaves 1/2 full size and aspens near full.  Yesterday's frost didn't damage any of the new growth so we've dodged that bullet for another year.  Looks like a lot of apple blossoms coming despite the buds lost to deer browse and loads of blossoms opening on the quince bushes - friends introduced me to quince jelly a few weeks ago.  :D

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ve been ZZZZ since Jan 2022.

Chasing ftw 

Hoping I can chase a cane 

Going up and down ocean BLVD in Boca- Delray where they haven’t had a direct hit from a cat 4 in over 50 years , the $damage there would be very severe . Everything up and down the coast is luxury and very heavily built . I don’t think either town has seen a surge over 5-6’ in decades . 
 

Jean and Francis in 2004 hit about 50 miles north as 3’s and their surges from the East were 60 -90 miles north And modest 

that area as well as the keys super “due” for a eyewall 


 

 

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We're gonna have to hear from the robust +PNA slated to occur between this weekend and next weekend ...

It's not fully committed to a summer regime - this two or three-day warm stint is kind of the synoptic/symbolic equivalent of 'fake warmth'  - a nimrod expression as it is ... 

We're in a kind of large scale COL between a back exerting (albeit weakening) -NAO flow construct, compressing against Pacific jet. We happened to end up in a good space between. Then, May/solar processed air that despite being NW in origin ... has been sans CAA.  

But that stasis is ending ...  it's kind of counter intuitive but the neutralization of the NAO structure ...then, the onset amplitude in the +PNAP associated with said +PNA will likely resume cold air masses passing through SE Canada.

The models have been onto this for a long while.  I suspect "summer" that isn't synoptic fake may be on the far side of that week's long last hurrah winter pattern trying to resist seasonal change.  And it is a winter look ... it just won't mean winter cold. 

The other aspect is that the trough over eastern N/A is likely to be mainly chilly N of the 40th parallel.  It's prooobabkly going to shallow some, not atypical for the models to back off those as they tend to be over amped anyway.

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24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Chasing ftw 

Hoping I can chase a cane 

Going up and down ocean BLVD in Boca- Delray where they haven’t had a direct hit from a cat 4 in over 50 years , the $damage there would be very severe . Everything up and down the coast is luxury and very heavily built . I don’t think either town has seen a surge over 5-6’ in decades . 
 

Jean and Francis in 2004 hit about 50 miles north as 3’s and their surges from the East were 60 -90 miles north And modest 

that area as well as the keys super “due” for a eyewall 


 

 

We need a cane. Pretty much had a cat 1 here though in October 2021. That was fun. Lets get a 3 into HVN moving N at 50kts.

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Maybe 1 80 here... then a slow drop for a bit.

Southern SNE will be warm, but no big heat like April

The 96 at BDL is still a bit of an enigma to me, but not going down the rabbit hole on that one. 

 

Definitely no big heat, just nice..warm temps for a few days. 

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