Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[snowman19]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

And did the recent -PDO start somewhere around 2017 (right after the super el nino)?

And as for the AMO did that switch to negative a few years ago too?

Thanks, it's good to know where we stand.

After seeing that giant sunspot on the last day we had sunshine here (Wednesday) I know we're in for a HUGE solar storm this weekend (and maybe Northern Lights even down here).  But it's not looking good for next winter at all.

 

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

[LibertyBell]

6 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

I thought that + part of the cycle was supposed to be ending soon? Hmmm lol

When did the PDO switch to negative though, was that around 2017?

 

[GaWx]

11 hours ago, snowman19 said:

No, the AMO is currently positive and very strongly positive at that

 Somehow there’s a WB 12Z 5/10 CFS NDJ map that JB shows with very cold E 2/3 of the US including 5-7F BN centered over W VA along with a +PDO. Meanwhile, here’s the avg of the last 12 CFS runs from TT with practically the opposite including a -PDO:

[Volcanic Winter]

A little backyard Aurora action???

I’m pretty blown away, but then again given the intensity of the solar storm it’s not even that surprising. During the 1859 Carrington Event, aurorae were visible all the way down to the Caribbean. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Volcanic Winter said:

A little backyard Aurora action???

I’m pretty blown away, but then again given the intensity of the solar storm it’s not even that surprising. During the 1859 Carrington Event, aurorae were visible all the way down to the Caribbean. 

wow what time and what direction did you look-- North? and how bright were they with your eyes?

[snowman19]

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

We are experiencing the most extreme geomag storm possible…G5

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/severe-geomagnetic-storm-watch-issued-unusual-solar-event/

so more amazing northern lights?

THIS IS GREAT NEWS!

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow what time and what direction did you look-- North? and how bright were they with your eyes?

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Volcanic Winter said:

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

That's absolutely amazing-- they were people saying they looked better in NJ than they ever looked from Iceland lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

About 3am facing the northern horizon. The green was very visible to the naked eye, and there was a faint pink / purple hue to space in the area it developed in the picture. 

blue and purple are the rarest colors to see in Northern Lights, they are from ionized nitrogen!

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Somehow there’s a WB 12Z 5/10 CFS NDJ map that JB shows with very cold E 2/3 of the US including 5-7F BN centered over W VA along with a +PDO. Meanwhile, here’s the avg of the last 12 CFS runs from TT with practically the opposite including a -PDO:

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

[snowman19]

The new Copernicus model run has started to back off the strength of the +IOD this summer and most have it neutral by September. Not a surprise since a +IOD La Niña is extremely rare. My guess is that the IOD goes negative this fall which would fit Niña climo

@bluewave

[bluewave]

On 5/8/2024 at 12:54 PM, Terpeast said:

Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?

It could be a combination of the record warm Atlantic SSTs along with the record warmth over the Western Pacific causing these further south Greenland blocks during the 2020s to link up with the Southeast ridge. In the 1950-1970 era of strong -PNA patterns, this wasn’t the case when there was a strong Greenland block. There was usually an upper low over the East at the same time there was a deeper -PNA trough out West. 

[GaWx]

On 5/11/2024 at 7:06 AM, snowman19 said:

JB has already decided that this winter is going to be severely cold and snowy. No matter what happens between now and November, he will find any excuse humanly possible to predict that

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record there even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Very clearly way off and makes zero sense. Only the completely delusional (JB) would believe that 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 0Z 5/11 WB CFS control run for DJF 2024-5 literally has an anomaly of -5C at Chicago which is -9F! This is using 1981-2010 climo. That means this would be the coldest winter on record their even barely beating winters like 1903-4 and 2013-4! Meanwhile, far N Lower Michigan is +1C/+2F! How can that even be possible when Chi is -9F? There’s something seriously off with some of the WB CFS seasonal maps and not just with the SSTa maps that keep showing a +PDO. That’s not JB (though he chose to post it). That’s WB CFS and I can’t recall ever seeing such an amazing discrepancy between frigid WB and AN TT for the same model! Granted, TT maps are for 3 days of runs (12 runs) averaged out vs the WB being just one run. But come on! And again, how could Chi be -9F while N Lower MI is +2F?

Edit: How could south central Lake Michigan air temps be -6C/-11F while a mere 150 miles to the north over N Lake Mich it is right at normal?

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

[snowman19]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Considering the mechanism that brings cold air to Chicago (out of the Arctic and down south) that map really is impossible. 

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

[rclab]

For all the Moms and the memory of … our love today and every day. As always ….

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

But yet JB posts it on the paid site anyway for his east coast weenie base who don’t know any better. $$$$

JB is totally on the highly unlikely winter +PDO bandwagon now. Talking about the correlation of +PDO to cold and snow in the NE US. Still another day showing the WB CFS with a +PDO for next winter. Is he going to mention winter +PDO every day for next 6 months on days when tropics are quiet?  

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

JB is totally on the highly unlikely winter +PDO bandwagon now. Talking about the correlation of +PDO to cold and snow in the NE US. Still another day showing the WB CFS with a +PDO for next winter. Is he going to mention winter +PDO every day for next 6 months on days when tropics are quiet?  

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible. 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Since the AMO turned + in the Atlantic mid-latitudes, the PDO has had a tendency toward negative. In the last few years, we hit -3 on the monthly, which was the strongest -PDO since 1954. With AMO still roaring positive and now a La Nina developing, it's really difficult for the PDO to go negative for the Winter.. we needed the Strong Nino to do that job, and we had one the highest relative -PDO/ENSO Winter's on record. It may take quite a few years to go back to true positive, although a 1-2 year blip like 2013-15 isn't impossible. 

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

[Terpeast]

46 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The only met I’ve read talking at all about a reasonably potential +PDO next winter is JB and that’s based on WB CFS Pacific SSTa maps for then that strongly disagree with other companies’ (including TT) CFS maps. These all show a solid -PDO.

 Currently, the PDO is about as strongly negative as it has been since early Oct of 2023! It has been falling as El Niño has been ending. The NOAA based version is ~-2.5 or lower!

By the daily WCS graph, it’s obvious that the strong nino made a dent in the -PDO, but nowhere enough to flip it positive. With waning nino influence, the PDO is right back as negative as it has been prior to the nino.

It’s going to be a long time before the PDO goes positive, and I don’t know anymore what it will take to drive that. 

[GaWx]

On 5/12/2024 at 1:52 PM, snowman19 said:

He’s going to ride the +PDO/high Atlantic ACE train like sea biscuit. Even if it doesn’t work out, he will still find some way, some how to say 95-96, 10-11, 13-14, 14-15 are analogs

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

*Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than  closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

[Terpeast]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

TT map for comparison (yes, it’s apples vs oranges)

 

I mean, I don’t hate this map. With a cold source nearby, it could be workable. But CFS seems to be on its own, and it’s going to change 1000 times (probably correcting warmer in the last minute)

[donsutherland1]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The WB 18Z 5/13 run of the CFS control for Feb 2025 has Memphis a whopping 10 C BN/18 F BN the 1981-2010 climo mean of 45.5! 45.5-18 = 27.5. Coldest on record back to 1875 is 32.0, set in 1899 (before GW). Thus, this prog is for a Feb that is 4.5 colder than the coldest on record (going back 149 years) and that record cold Feb was pre-GW.  
As long as WB is going to keep feeding JB ridiculously cold impossible CFS maps like this (WB CFS unfortunately are very flawed), he’ll have ammunition to keep suggesting a good shot at a very cold E US 2024-5 winter:

Memphis climo: 

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=meg

*Edit 1:57PM: note how once again far N Lake Mich/Lower Mich is amazingly warmer than  closeby surrounding areas, symptomatic of a WB (not CFS) bug. Also, much of the US E coast almost always is much warmer anomalywise than just inland on WB CFS maps, which also has to be due to a WB bug. Actually, I’ve noticed that for several years on WB CFS maps.

It is all but certain that map will fail spectacularly. Let’s see if JB embraces it, as he so often does with other maps showing cold extremes.

[Nibor]

It’s felt like a real spring this year. We didn’t just jump into summer. 

[Stormlover74]

14 minutes ago, Nibor said:

It’s felt like a real spring this year. We didn’t just jump into summer. 

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah people forget this is what spring is usually like. It hasn't been overly wet despite the cloudy dreary cool days

I'm at nearly 2.5" of rain through the first 15 days.  We haven't had the soakers so far thankfully.

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I'm at nearly 2.5" of rain through the first 15 days.  We haven't had the soakers so far thankfully.

Yeah parts of the area have had quite a bit. Ewr is still below 1.5"