Extended summer stormlover74 future snow hole banter thread 23

[snowman19]

35 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder why -NAO are now much more likely in Spring in  a solar maximum year rather than in winter?  Next winter looks like it will lack blocking for all intents and purposes just like this winter has and the one before it, but why are we getting these blocks in Spring now which did not happen in the 1990s? If you look at solar maximums from the 1990s, like 1991, we had a positive NAO for most of the year so every month was well above normal (22 out of 24 above normal months.)

 

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure 

[BxEngine]

Hi @Rjay

[TheClimateChanger]

23 hours ago, snowman19 said:

Could be AGW and ++AMO related? Not really sure. As far as the AO, it was theorized years ago that the record low arctic sea ice would cause an increase in snowcover and lead to more -AO winters but that theory was a miserable failure 

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

[snowman19]

On 5/8/2024 at 10:14 AM, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

I still remember the one winter, forgetting which one, when the record low arctic sea ice started….all the epic busted forecasts calling for major -AO blocking because the open waters were supposedly going to add moisture and cause record arctic snowpack and lead to -AO all winter. There had to be at least 5 of them. The weenies jumped all over that theory and it failed, big time

 

@donsutherland1 I’m sure you remember that debacle well lol

[Stormlover74]

10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Just awful. And we have our townwide garage sale Saturday in which we're participating. Probably going to be damp and 40s while setting up. I'm not even sure its going to be worth it

btw does anyone need a large hutch? We can't even give it away let alone sell it 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had less onshore flow than this spring.Since with more more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

[Terpeast]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had much lower instances of backdoors. Since we had more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

Although I didn’t think they were related before (couldn’t find a convincing enough link), I’m starting to believe that the AMO cycle leads to more SE ridge link ups with HL blocking. Do we know that if this happened in previous +AMO cycles let’s say, prior to 1980 or so?

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

btw does anyone need a large hutch? We can't even give it away let alone sell it 

that and armoire's....no one puts a TV in those anymore.   Unloaded a huge Ethan Allen one for $20-I was figuring I might have to pay someone to take it...

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

that and armoire's....no one puts a TV in those anymore.   Unloaded a huge Ethan Allen one for $20-I was figuring I might have to pay someone to take it...

nobody wants china and I guess stores everything in their kitchen no need for china cabinets and hutches anymore unless they're antiques

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

nobody wants china and I guess stores everything in their kitchen no need for china cabinets and hutches anymore unless they're antiques

yep-newer construciton homes often have no Dining Room anymore...just a bigger kitchen with a larger seating area....we are more casual that a generation or two ago...

[Stormlover74]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

yep-newer construciton homes often have no Dining Room anymore...just a bigger kitchen with a larger seating area....we are more casual that a generation or two ago...

yep we just took down the wall between the kitchen and DR. Will still have a formal dining but will be totally open

[FPizz]

32 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

yep we just took down the wall between the kitchen and DR. Will still have a formal dining but will be totally open

Our dining room is more casual now since we put a bar in it and hung a tv.  We use way more now with those additions to it.

[forkyfork]

i don't want anyone talking to me when i'm cooking

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

the 1990s were much hotter and drier dude, compare this spring to spring 1991 in New York City that was one of the hottest summers too, along with 1993 and 2010.

Check out maximum length of heatwaves 1990s vs now.  Specifically between 1991-2002.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I'm just not seeing any evidence of this so-called blocking in the actual data, which shows this to be among the hottest springs ever recorded in the northeast and much hotter than anytime in the 1990s? Like wouldn't blocking make it cold in the spring?

New York, NY

Newark, NJ

Hartford, CT

Philadelphia, PA

Burlington, VT

Harrisburg, PA

Pittsburgh, PA

Buffalo, NY

Washington - Dulles, VA

 

 

2010 was definitely the hottest on record, but 1991, 1993, 1999  and 2002 came in right after that. 1983 held the record before that.

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Blocking is always warm when it links up with the Southeast ridge and becomes more south based. But it results in frequent backdoor cold fronts in the spring. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs with the warm departures ultimately winning out.

We had very strong blocking in the spring during 2010 also. But it build down SW to the Great Lakes which made it the warmest spring blocking pattern on record. The ridge axis wound up to our west so we had less onshore flow than this spring.Since with more more S to SW flow. This spring the ridge axis is more into Eastern New England allowing more frequent onshore flow and backdoor cold frontal passages.
 

I remember seeing this map with correlations, with the midatlantic being warmer with a -NAO and new england being warmer with a +NAO and we were in between (that is much less of a correlation, at least during the spring and summer.)

2010 was definitely our warmest spring and summer on record going by 90 degree days and several years in the 90s were right behind-- specifically 1991 and 1993 as well as 1999 and 2002. 1983 was another one that was extremely hot with number of 90 degree days.

 

 

[bluewave]

34 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 1990s were much hotter and drier dude, compare this spring to spring 1991 in New York City that was one of the hottest summers too, along with 1993 and 2010.

Check out maximum length of heatwaves 1990s vs now.  Specifically between 1991-2002.

For 90° days they were much warmer than even 2010. There was a very +AO +NAO pattern during springs like 1986, 1991, and 2002. So if we ever got a pattern like that in our much warmer 2020s climate Newark would have its first spring with 10+ 90° days. The only thing that has been preventing this has been all the blocking during recent springs. 

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Mar through May
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90	Missing Count
1	1991	8	0
2	1986	6	0
3	2002	5	0
-	1959	5	0
4	2022	4	0
-	2021	4	0
-	2018	4	0
-	2000	4	0
-	1987	4	0
-	1977	4	0
-	1965	4	0
-	1939	4	0
-	1936	4	0
5	2023	3	0
-	2017	3	0
-	2016	3	0
-	2010	3	0
-	2009	3	0
-	2001	3	0
-	1999	3	0
-	1996	3	0
-	1993	3	0
-	1992	3	0
-	1985	3	0
-	1974	3	0
-	1964	3	0
-	1962	3	0
-	1934	3	0
-	1931	3	0

 

[snowman19]

Textbook -PDO, strengthening and getting even more well defined. JB’s +PDO wishcast isn’t looking too good….

[Volcanic Winter]

@snowman19

When do you foresee the PDO actually shifting? Do you think we stay predominantly -PDO for a while or do you think a shift may happen within several years? 

[snowman19]

26 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

@snowman19

When do you foresee the PDO actually shifting? Do you think we stay predominantly -PDO for a while or do you think a shift may happen within several years? 

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

We have actually seen a shift in the way the -PDO has been manifesting in recent years. It’s now defined by the 2nd EOF which is being driven by the extreme marine heatwave east of Japan. So this is the first El Niño around  +2.0 or higher with a -2.09 PDO in April. 
 

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-023-00839-w

In this study, we evaluate the ocean warming pattern derived from four decades of satellite measurements. We find widespread strong subtropical ocean warming, concentrating mostly on the western ocean basins. In contrast to these observations, studies of paleoclimate suggest that the greatest ocean warming occurs at higher latitudes. By pairing the observed warming pattern with SST evolution in long-term climate simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is constrained by ocean dynamics of surface convergence (downwelling, subtropical gyres) and divergence (upwelling, subpolar gyres) rather than being dominated by internal variabilities, such as the 

 

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2022GL101078

The fundamental result of this study is that the first EOF of SST in the North Pacific has changed starting in 2014. For more than 20 years, the PDO has been used to describe the state of the North Pacific. However, since the marine heatwave of 2014, there have been remarkable changes to the dominant mode of SST in the North Pacific. The spatial pattern of the first EOF of SST from 1950 to 2021 is notably different from the PDO, suggesting that though the PDO served as a useful metric of SST variations until 2014 (Johnstone & Mantua, 2014), it may no longer be as effective a climate index for the North Pacific. From 1950 until the 2014 MHW, the first EOF remained consistent in its proportion of positive and negative regions with both taking up roughly half the area of the North Pacific (and with the positive region taken to be the eastern Pacific). When EOFs are calculated from 1950 to endpoints after 2014, the first EOF has a maximum positive region covering 77% of the North Pacific, with a PC indicating the largest anomalies on record. These changes to the first EOF/PC of North Pacific SST are nothing short of remarkable.

In concert with these changes, the second EOF/PC of SST has also undergone profound evolution since 2014. This second EOF now accounts for approximately 18% of the variability, growing from 13% during the 1950–2013 period. The spatial structure of the second EOF now is positive over almost the entire basin, with a PC that has grown strongly positive in the last several years. Thus, the second EOF/PC describes warming over much of the Pacific not in the positive lobe of the first 

[snowman19]

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:
 

[snowman19]

This solar max is extremely impressive in terms of sunspots, solar flares and now geomag activity. This is the highest geomag activity we’ve seen since the early 2000’s:
 

[forkyfork]

christmas should be illegal

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

 

 

I guess the exact severity is impossible to forecast?   I saw a media hyped headline, predicting (potential) internet blackouts.

[LibertyBell]

On 5/9/2024 at 6:40 AM, snowman19 said:

We are very clearly in a long term negative PDO cycle, when this one ends is anyone’s guess. Any volcano updates?

it's around a 20-25 yr cycle I think

we had this same cycle back in the 70s to the first half of the 90s, it flipped in the mid 90s.

1967-68 to 1992-1993 was a -PDO?

That means a 25 year cycle

 

I'm thinking it will flip again around 2042.

We have awhile-- but it doesn't mean that we won't get good winters, they'll just be extremely rare.

We still had 1977-78 in the middle of that cycle but that was the only really good winter.  Aside from that we had an HECS in February 1983 so that's the only other possibility- one HECS to make the entire winter near or slightly above average for snowfall.

 

[snowman19]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's around a 20-25 yr cycle I think

we had this same cycle back in the 70s to the first half of the 90s, it flipped in the mid 90s.

1967-68 to 1992-1993 was a -PDO?

That means a 25 year cycle

 

I'm thinking it will flip again around 2042.

We have awhile-- but it doesn't mean that we won't get good winters, they'll just be extremely rare.

We still had 1977-78 in the middle of that cycle but that was the only really good winter.  Aside from that we had an HECS in February 1983 so that's the only other possibility- one HECS to make the entire winter near or slightly above average for snowfall.

 

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle, then we went into a +PDO cycle at the tail end of the 70’s. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The 1940’s-1970’s were a strong -PDO cycle. The end of the 1970’s till around 1995 was a -AMO cycle

Is there any fixed or approximate length to these cycles that we could calculate how long they last?

Looks like the AMO cycle is also important for our winters.

[snowman19]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Is there any fixed or approximate length to these cycles that we could calculate how long they last?

 

Going by past history, decades

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Going by past history, decades

And did the recent -PDO start somewhere around 2017 (right after the super el nino)?

And as for the AMO did that switch to negative a few years ago too?

Thanks, it's good to know where we stand.

After seeing that giant sunspot on the last day we had sunshine here (Wednesday) I know we're in for a HUGE solar storm this weekend (and maybe Northern Lights even down here).  But it's not looking good for next winter at all.