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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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Just my thoughts in regards to the next 2 threats it’s over.  These next two storms on March 11th and 17th will be well just look out the window today and replicas of the last 8 storms dating back to January.  
 

I have been saying it the Gulf and SW Atlantic are on fire and all that warmth is just fueling the SER.  I’m very concerned about what this summer has in store for us it cannot be good in regards to heat humidity and drought. I’m also concerned for an East Coast Hurricane strike SC to Long Island watch out. 

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time to put this winter season to bed. Every 10 day 12+ storm event has turned to rain-- every one one on the GFS model alone. Here is my final answer to this winter season below- instead of bacon just add the word snow. I just hope we get more rain to avoid a drought. Tonights downpours really helped. Most rain all year in a 4  hour period.

 

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8 hours ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I have been saying it the Gulf and SW Atlantic are on fire and all that warmth is just fueling the SER.  I’m very concerned about what this summer has in store for us it cannot be good in regards to heat humidity and drought. I’m also concerned for an East Coast Hurricane strike SC to Long Island watch out. 

As long as we get normal or close to normal precipitation, that helps to stave off triple digit temps in the summer.  If we get into a dry begets dry pattern, then the temps can soar fairly quickly as there would be no need to waste energy and time evaporating ground moisture.

As an obs, I ended hitting 47 for a high yesterday after a 33 low, and had a trace snow and a total 0.83" liquid (mostly rain).  This morning I got an additional 0.37" (so far), for a 2-day event total of 1.20".

Currently misty with low stratus and 45 with dp 45.

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1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

Welp…. GFS was wave after wave potential…. Now it’s rain and useless dry cold…

GFS is all on its own with next week. Even it's ensembles have a potential mecs with a redeveloping Miller b off the obx. Until other guidance goes towards the gfs there is still a decent chance. Dont give up hope yet.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS is all on its own with next week. Even it's ensembles have a potential mecs with a redeveloping Miller b off the obx. Until other guidance goes towards the gfs there is still a decent chance. Dont give up hope yet.

12z euro says how dare you doubt king GFS

Seriously I know GFS scores worse but it's owning the no snow pattern

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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Heard all winter ensembles looked good but the op's keep winning

Technically the EPS mean is over south Jersey not the capes, that doesn't work in January

 

Here's an op for ya then...JMA is a bit borderline with temps to start but pulls off a capture...big storm signal. Still favors interior and elevations but not etched in stone yet. This is a different pattern up top. 

jma_z500_mslp_eus_8.png

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Big ticket changes all around wrt next weekends potential. GFS trended towards the euro (which destroys part of this forum)...still an outlier (the gfs). Been over a year since we actually had guidance begin to trend favorably at this ra3nhe like we saw at 0z). Thats what happens with massive nao blocking and mjo 8-1 phase. Here is the eps borrowed from the Mid Atl forum originally borrowed from the NE forum:

955756AE-80B8-4AE8-B2A5-FCA9F513E656.gif.4fa59489804bb251f1184f25124666f6-1.gif

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And we patiently await the 12z models. Pretty decent pattern period coming up between the 10th and 20th. Seasonal history says move on, other data suggests just hanging tight. Retrograding NAO block, stj involvement, 50/50 low, MJO amplified phase 8->1, vorticity rolling underneath the block...what could go wrong? 

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Today and tomorrow should be above normal high temperatures with temps reaching the low 50's. Rain maybe mixed with some snow tomorrow night will start a trend toward cooler weather for the rest of the week. Some models hint at a major snowstorm arriving on Friday night into the weekend...but we have seen this movie before and it will likely change by game time.
The records for today: High 76 (1964) / Low 7 (1978) / Precipitation 2.26" (1920) / Snow 9.5" (1902)
image.png.bb05a28b11f564a043786dd0953e8251.png
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