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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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7 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Page 4!

Like some other globals, GFS doesn’t hate that Mon night/Tues morning thingy. We’ll see…

Funny how the spring obs thread pages are progressing along faster than our winter obs thread did at any point this entire winter. There is a theme that is becoming evident and it isn't severe weather...yet anyway.

Tbh, it is sorta refreshing to finally have the good looks up top following the sswe with the mjo entering a very amplified phase 8->1....trends going in our favor at this lead time rather than down the toilet for once. 

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GFS has 3 threats over the next 10 days. None are flush hits but the trends to the good are happening. Ops finally recognizing the pattern. Ides of March system still popping up...op has it as a big Interior hit this run. Now or never before we move into full spring mode.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS for Tuesday with the deathband. Continues coming South past 6 runs. Actually gets flakes into extreme PA now:

gfs_asnow_neus_11.png

I appreciate the breakdown Ralph, and I am monitoring to see if any big snow storm materializes for SE PA.  However, I still think this is headed to a path of snow but not hard enough to stick during the day and any overnight accumulation melted by morning rush hour. I hope to be wrong.  

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BTW just want to note as most are already aware, lower elevations, fall line to coastal plain still need a near perfect scenario this time of the year no matter how you slice it. So I'm not all-in on any single huge storm for i95 etc attm. This pattern, especially the onset beginning around the 10th, still significantly favors far NW elevated areas. Chances for lowlands somewhat increase mid month but climo obviously still favors NW elevations. Keep expectations in check for now, but things seem to be lining up for chances anyway.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

BTW just want to note as most are already aware, lower elevations, fall line to coastal plain still need a near perfect scenario this time of the year no matter how you slice it. So I'm not all-in on any single huge storm for i95 etc attm. This pattern, especially the onset begging around the 10th, still significantly favors far NW elevated areas. Chances for lowlands somewhat increase mid month but climo obviously still favors NW elevations. Keep expectations in check for now, but things seem to be lining up for chances anyway.

Agreed. It's late in the season. If we're big dog hunting, we'll  have to settle for a slopfest.

It's 4th and 26, is FredEx on the field?

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Why am I suppose to be excited about a rainy cutter that is trending into possibly a late developing Miller B that pounds New England, it's never getting far enough south for all of SEPA. At best I get 2-3" of toothpaste up here in the mountains of SEPA. The real potential is a follow up wave but the ECM/CMC don't have any only the GFS.

 

Give me 50-60F and sunny please

 

 

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18 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why am I suppose to be excited about a rainy cutter that is trending into possibly a late developing Miller B that pounds New England, it's never getting far enough south for all of SEPA. At best I get 2-3" of toothpaste up here in the mountains of SEPA. The real potential is a follow up wave but the ECM/CMC don't have any only the GFS.

 

Give me 50-60F and sunny please

 

 

I'm with you here. In a winter where nothing has gone right, I'm supposed to believe they will now when we need even more things to go right for big snow? Bring on spring. 

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27 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Why am I suppose to be excited about a rainy cutter that is trending into possibly a late developing Miller B that pounds New England, it's never getting far enough south for all of SEPA. At best I get 2-3" of toothpaste up here in the mountains of SEPA. The real potential is a follow up wave but the ECM/CMC don't have any only the GFS.

 

Give me 50-60F and sunny please

 

 

Preach 

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I’m like Ji, I think I prefer tracking to the actual storm itself. Yeah, I’d much rather be tracking the next Jan ‘96, but that’s not happening anytime soon.

In another week or so, there will be nothing left to track —boring season begins. So yeah, I’m down for TV snow/mood flakes.

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Damn.....you guys are brutal. I would take snow in the middle of July if I could :lol:

For me personally when it comes to March snow… I’m all or nothing. Either give me an actual 6-8in+ snowstorm or get out Lmao 

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58 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:


Which model did you look at? On the GFS There’s like 5-6 storm chances within 10 days after this weekend..


.

ECM and CMC have zip behind the Miller while the GFS has two quick follow up waves

 

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3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Lehigh Valley just got NAM'd. It just printed out 4-8" for the ABE area tomorrow night.

 should

Geeze Talk about Pencil Thin it better not be off by 5 miles.  That is a very interesting look exciting!  Hmm it suggests I could see a mood flake or two down here should be interesting. 

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing is all models continue ticking this South every run it seems.

PA is in the sweet spot for this. The blocking will shear out the system but not before it drops a bunch of snow somewhere in the state. It's a really tricky forecast, though, since the band of heavy snow will be so narrow. We won't know where the jackpot zone will be till like 6 hours before this thing actually gets to eastern PA.

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8 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

PA is in the sweet spot for this. The blocking will shear out the system but not before it drops a bunch of snow somewhere in the state. It's a really tricky forecast, though, since the band of heavy snow will be so narrow. We won't know where the jackpot zone will be till like 6 hours before this thing actually gets to eastern PA.

Most of the mess now have the deathband and another area of convergence underneath and following behind as the deathband moves by so even SE PA gets in on some snow now on several. The Hr³ as an example has me in a c-1" area as do the wrfs.

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