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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Most of the mess now have the deathband and another area of convergence underneath and following behind as the deathband moves by so even SE PA gets in on some snow now on several. The Hr³ as an example has me in a c-1" area as do the wrfs.

The RGEM still basically has poo for E PA and NJ but I am ready to toss it somewhat as the Euro at 18Z ticked wetter and N and the HRRR being as far N as it is is a red flag, it really has not budged on its last few 48 hour runs 

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6z mesos ticked S again for tomorrow AM....3-6" zone now inro N Bucks. C-2" here. Promised the wife we would rescue a dog after the last worries of snow for the season. Locked up the deal 3 weeks ago, brought the dog home yesterday. So obviously it is going to snow and we are heading into a backloaded pattern regime.

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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ticked South again. Gfs playing catchup again, farthest N attm still. The ticks S haven't stopped tho. If they continue we could actually whiten the mulch and deck here tomorrow.

 

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM ticked N.

Not expecting much white with this one S of i78, maybe a slushy coating in far N Bucks. Lehigh c-2". Poconos N 1-3"....some 4" lollies. 

:arrowhead:

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM ticked N.

Not expecting much white with this one S of i78, maybe a slushy coating in far N Bucks. Lehigh c-2". Poconos N 1-3"....some 4" lollies. 

I just posted 1-3” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. The NAM is an outlier with how far north it has the heavy band. The HRRR and the other mesos favor Bethlehem and Easton more. They also have up to 5” in the Lehigh Valley but that’s not happening with the warm ground temps. Snow will eventually accumulate due to the heavy rates, but with a quick hitter like this, every hour counts, and this thing looks to be in and out in around 4-5 hours.

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50 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

I just posted 1-3” for the Lehigh Valley on my page. The NAM is an outlier with how far north it has the heavy band. The HRRR and the other mesos favor Bethlehem and Easton more. They also have up to 5” in the Lehigh Valley but that’s not happening with the warm ground temps. Snow will eventually accumulate due to the heavy rates, but with a quick hitter like this, every hour counts, and this thing looks to be in and out in around 4-5 hours.

Ratios up that way will be 6:1......8:1 at best.

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