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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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14 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

The UKIE on 12z and now 0z would leave me questioning faith in humanity. Allentown gets roughly 3in while like 15-20mi to the E/NE they get a fairly classic 6-10in snowstorm 

Volatile situation way to early to believe a fantasy map. More and more March 2001 like.

 

 

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Just my quick thoughts....we rarely ever get a bombing Miller B to develop far enough S or fast enough to significantly impact us except for N of I78. I can count on 1 hand the number of times over the last 25 years these have worked out. These systems are the absolute epitome of Lucy and the football and exactly the reason we came up with that analogy over the years. I'm obviously keeping an eye on it but we are into mid March now and spring is now showing up on guidance. Best to keep expectations nil and hope for the best. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Just my quick thoughts....we rarely ever get a bombing Miller B to develop fat enough S or fast enough to significantly impact us except for N of I78. I can count on 1 hand the number of times over the last 25 years these have worked out. These systems are the absolute epitome of Lucy and the football and exactly the reason we came up with that analogy over the years. I'm obviously keeping an eye on it but we are into mid March now and spring is now showing up on guidance. Best to keep expectations nil and hope for the best. 

Sorry, but what guidance is showing Spring?  I have yet to see a 70+ degree in the next 15 days. In fact the temps  for the rest of March may not even hit the 60's.  Spring to many of us is 70+ degree days with t-showers. Hell the soil temps are still so cold , the grass will not turn dark green yet.  The leaves on my pussy willow tree have not even budded yet. 5 out 7 days a week of Cloudy 40 degree days just do not indicate Spring to me yet. We just do not have the white crap on the ground this year thats all.  Give me Feb again as that was a spring month to me. 

 

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

Volatile situation way to early to believe a fantasy map. More and more March 2001 like.

 

 

I'm thinking December '99 when Philly got around 8" while the sun was out in West Chester. That would be a fun repeat :huh:

35F

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We may see a few wet snow flakes mixed in at the start of the rain early this afternoon and again towards tomorrow morning as the storm pulls away. Otherwise, a prolonged stretch of below normal temperatures will continue for at least the next couple weeks. Another storm will impact us Sunday night into Monday.
Records for today: High 79.2 (2016) / Low 4 below zero (1984) / Precipitation 1.47" (1952) / Snow 13.3" (1907)
image.png.8ecd9ed4662535947fff6c939861d8f4.png
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2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Sorry, but what guidance is showing Spring?  I have yet to see a 70+ degree in the next 15 days. In fact the temps  for the rest of March may not even hit the 60's.  Spring to many of us is 70+ degree days with t-showers. Hell the soil temps are still so cold , the grass will not turn dark green yet.  The leaves on my pussy willow tree have not even budded yet. 5 out 7 days a week of Cloudy 40 degree days just do not indicate Spring to me yet. We just do not have the white crap on the ground this year thats all.  Give me Feb again as that was a spring month to me. 

 

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png

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47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

 

cfs-avg_T2maMean_us_4.png

Four degree daily anomaly and this indicates spring? Had to really dig this one up? Notice the blue in the Chesapeake Bay  area. All this model tells me is that there is a decent chance of a Nor'easter forming as the cloudy and really cold rainy  days continue until the second week of April  Thanks anyway.

 

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1 hour ago, Albedoman said:

Four degree daily anomaly and this indicates spring? Had to really dig this one up? Notice the blue in the Chesapeake Bay  area. All this model tells me is that there is a decent chance of a Nor'easter forming as the cloudy and really cold rainy  days continue until the second week of April  Thanks anyway.

 

Spring is in the air. Daffodils are in full bloom, magnolia is getting ready to pop, lilacs are getting leaves. Might not be the string of 70 degree days you were looking for but the change is inevitable.

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.5 inch of snow does not cut it with me for precip totals. At this points 1-3 in snows are worthless.  I would rather see 1" rainfall totals right now to recharge the parched groundwater tables. This  week alone we had two wildfire hazardous messages.  If this crappy weather pattern does not break soon, we will be heading into a drought in  late April and streamflows will be down big time as the water gets sucked out of the ground during the releafing process. 

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