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E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2023 OBS Thread


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Just now, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmm 35-45 mph winds off a warm ocean what can go wrong but I’d think 971 mb would manufacture it’s own cold air.  Oh what the hell one more whirl! 

Caught beneath the block. As you said, dynamic and would counter the ocean temps. If it's even right.

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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Caught beneath the block. As you said, dynamic and would counter the ocean temps. If it's even right.

Well I think it would only make sense to end this very warm pattern with a BANG!! Get the right trajectory of cold to mix with the heat to the south and the Big Bang happens pretty simple even if it’s March 12th.  Water temps in the Gulf of Mexico nearing 80 at Fort Myers and that heat down there is on the move in time.  Like I said an explosive storm can happen between the Mid Atlantic and the Southeastern states the atmosphere is primed! 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GFS a little later. Big time loaded pattern. Has 3 threats....at least one would work out. If we can't get a biggie from an h5 KU looking pattern I don't know what would work anymore

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_57.png

Haven't seen a storm like that in years.  Wowzers... on st Patty's day during March madness. Sign me up

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

All models are honking with the massive blocking pattern. Now we track and see which one works out. This would make for an epic backloaded winter...hit snow climo with 1 event.

More like a front loaded spring

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29 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Adopting a yellow Labrador retriever from a rescue on Sunday. It's been a few years here without dogs. We waited. And I told my wife we would do it after winter and snow threats are gone. Murphy's Law I guess. 

Umm, Ralph...

1) Congratulations! And the fact it's a rescue is all that much better!!

2) On behalf of every weenie in this forum--WHY DIDN'T YOU DO THIS ON Dec1???????????????

Okay, let's see what Dr. No has in store for us...

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24 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Umm, Ralph...

1) Congratulations! And the fact it's a rescue is all that much better!!

2) On behalf of every weenie in this forum--WHY DIDN'T YOU DO THIS ON Dec1???????????????

Okay, let's see what Dr. No has in store for us...

Dr No is a disaster....even the ridiculous block and strong 50/50 can't negate the strong sw wanting to cut. Seasonal trends win again...on this model anyway.

 

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1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Newman nailed winter by saying in early December that his worry is energy digging in the west and then cutting once ejecting.  Give that (New)man an award.

It was clear as day that would be the base state we'd be working with all winter, I wish I had been wrong!

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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Rain with a few mixed flakes now. This winter can't end soon enough...really.

Yeah that's what I was saying two weeks ago when the big SSWE happened. Could have had the first early spring in years instead odds favor March being cold wet and miserable. We have a November, December, November, March, March winter.

 

 

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44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Snowing in Warminster. No rain. 44f. 

Yep we had like bursting snow then it would stop bursting snow then it would stop at 44 degrees then it changed to rain right now 36 light snizzle rain some sleet mixed in with a dewpoint that has risen from 26 to 30 in the past 20 minutes so winter show is over. 

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