Currently monitoring guidance for March late 3rd through the 4th for the next ( beyond the 28th) significant event

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ya’ll need your eyes checked, it’s warmer by a good amount at 12z sat.

It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT 

[ineedsnow]

This run is beautiful 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah. I’m not sure what people are looking at. It wasn’t very hard to see 

You still get in the ccb though. 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Ya’ll need your eyes checked, it’s warmer by a good amount at 12z sat.

18+  for my area

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It gives a better front end thump down to west central CT 

Yeah it may have ended up north of 18z by Saturday, but the way it gets there is important. There was a stronger vort lobe sticking east so we got a really good thump…and the CCB was very strong again this run. 

[weathafella]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

It was for me.  Nice CCB Saturday 

[George001]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s warmer and the initial thump is father north, period.

 

still not an awful solution, but by no means was it better than 18z

Low location more north too

[8611Blizz]

Drops 18" on Boston. Tonight tv mets might make adjustments?

[weathafella]

12/9/05

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You still get in the ccb though. 

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It was for me.  Nice CCB Saturday 

Yeah looks like eastern ma still gets in on the CCB, if that feature is to be believed 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Drops 18" on Boston. Tonight tv mets might make adjustments?

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

[wxsniss]

It is a tick warmer 12z Saturday but then bonafide Miller B

Huge hit northern CT on north... I'd call this GFS holding firm

H7:

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

Getting excited could easily be my biggest storm I've seen in years

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Verbatim, probably no plain rain here on that run. Snow/sleet/snow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

18+  for my area

Good for you, you need it. In general, it was north and warmer in the mid levels and surface. Rain for southern half of CT sat morning.

[8611Blizz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Need to see more guidance on board. I’d start feeling pretty good though up by Ray’s hood over to S NH and N ORH County. 

Yup. i still would want to see what the Euro does.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

The 850 low went from far  SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

It is a tick warmer 12z Saturday but then bonafide Miller B

Huge hit northern CT on north... I'd call this GFS holding firm

H7:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Be careful about confusing QPF haircuts for warming trends moving forward...not saying anyone has done that, but its easy to do...I'll take the under on GFS QPF.

[8611Blizz]

FWIW Fox Boston went up from 1-3 to 3-6 for the Boston already.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

There was a definite haircut south of the pike. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

The 850 low went from far  SW CT To a S end of Nantucket . Very rare track . 

Yeah and I don’t trust it to make that track so I want to see this a little further south off to the west as we get closer to feel good about it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I would not call it holding firm overall but if you want to say pike north holds firm on big snow potential, sure.

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

18z:

0z:

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

Right. Game of inches and ticks down here. 

[Diggiebot]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

12/9/05

Yeah but that had epic winds that overshadowed the snow especially on the cape 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

I mean, by definition, if it’s different, it didn’t hold serve, no?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It held firm for all intents and purposes...its just that those right on the line obsess over every modeled gravity wave that impacts snowfall output.

You notice all of the people that are arguing it didn't hold serve live in CT and se MA.

I’m sure if it didn’t hold firm for YOU, you’d say the same. Let’s not pretend it did not nudge north with mid level warmth and the surface though.  

[George001]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There was a definite haircut south of the pike. 

Yep, that’s how it starts. A little haircut here and there, then by the time the storm is on our doorstep everything trends towards the NAM.

 

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z:

0z:

Its not just a clown map hallucination, the low itself took a decent jog north from 18z. If anything, with how much more north the low was I’m surprised the haircut wasn’t bigger south of the pike. A couple more ticks like that and all of a sudden the low is over western MA.