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2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
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4 minutes ago, ThatHurricane said:

Interesting gradient in NYC on the models - although in my experience from when I lived in NYC, that usually doesn't hold, and a changeover to rain around JFK is usually soon followed by a changeover to rain or at least sleet in Manhattan/Bronx

It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. 

Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations?   

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1 minute ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It depends on the type of storm and if it's a gradient vs warm air coming in. I do agree I can't think of a time upper Manhattan/Bronx were mainly snow while JFK got almost nothing. 

Also the maps seem to be showing snow down to JFK but I'm guessing temps are an issue in terms of accumulations?   

Yes part of it is surface temps due to ESE winds off the ocean. The temp in northern NYC and North Shore is around 33 at 5z Tue, at JFK it's 37. That could be all the difference. 

sfct_b-imp.us_ne.png

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2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Exactly, rug could still get pulled and this trends back north at the last minute.

I think, for a change this year, we're seeing some blocking involved to limit how much more north this can go. Tricky, because at the same time, these have ended up tracking farther north at go-time than modeled. 

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Just now, SnoSki14 said:

That's always the risk but once the Euro catches onto a trend (stronger blocking/confluence) this close-in it usually doesn't go back. 

And models are moving towards the Euro not against it

It's hard to see this trending significantly with the Euro and Canadian models both locked in on colder solutions this close to the event. However the scary part is even a small north shift could have big implications for southern parts of the subforum. 

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53 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Such a close call for our area. We probably won't have a good idea until right before the event. 

I wouldn't hold my breath. 2-3 inches in a marginal set up for us usually means bupkiss. 60 years experience here. Sleet always arrives more quickly then expected and spreads further than expected. If there is any ESE wind then anyone who is within driving distance from the coast isn't seeing much. Hoping to see a miracle.

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10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Icon 2 inch line down to middlesex county 

I have always regarded 1-3 inch predictions as basically nothing, which is usually the case in these setups for our area unless it is really cold. At this point I will believe it when I see it. Some years you get lucky a lot, other years everything fails to come together. No secret where we are this year.....

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