Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

2/28/23 storm threat


Rjay
 Share

Recommended Posts

10 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

18z RGEM looks as if it would be about 2 inches for NYC even though it's mostly snow. It's mainly light snow. This event seems to be trending colder and weaker. 

Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Euro seems to be the only model showing both cold and decent qpf. I’d def take the RGEM solution though probably the best we are going to get with this. 

RGEM would be 3-5" if the city can stay all snow. Maybe 2-4" because ratios might be under 10-1. This winter it might as well be 24". 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I have a different take. I think HPN might be in a very good spot with this one. I think areas just north of the city could do very well with the front end. It depends how far north the pellets make it but usually being just north of sleet is good for heavy snow in this type of WAA setup.    

NWS cut HPN down to 2-4 from 3-5.  I agree with that assessment.  We will see.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

NWS still not buying more than a few inches south of 80 and has 1" or less south of 78, but they did move a little snowier vs. this morning (when they had no snow south of 78) and they do tend to not like making big jumps with model jumps, which kind of makes sense...

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

 

StormTotalSnowWeb.jpg

Looks like they're leaning towards advisory for the immediate N suburbs and N from there. Based on today it should probably be one tier south to include the N shore and N parts of the city. There could be a pretty big difference between the south and north shores in this one because we have an ESE surface wind. The ocean is the coldest it gets all year but it still makes a difference in these marginal setups. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah things are trending towards the Euro.

It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter.

Yup. Our 3 week winter starts today. With what ensembles are showing plus mjo phase 8 I would say 15- 20" for the park when all is said and done 

  • Thanks 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah things are trending towards the Euro.

It's almost hard to believe that we might get accumulating snow this winter.

NYC plays it cards right and we might actually see an average season. In theory, we could see an above average snowfall after this dismal winter. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...