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02/25 Light Snow Chance Disco/Obs


NorthArlington101
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43 minutes ago, high risk said:

        A couple of corrections here:

    1)  The SREF is not truly connected to the NAM.    Half of the SREF members use the same model core as the NAM, but half use the same core that is used by the HRRR.

    2)  Neither the NAM nor the SREF has been upgraded in many years, and both systems are due for retirement within the next 2-3 years.

Haha I'm definitely just now realizing that my weather model knowledge is extremely dated. In my head, NAM was just upgraded from 4k to 3k. So is the FV... whatever model the replacement for NAM?

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1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

No overnight activity here but things still generally look good for T-1” for many. Could end up being the best event of the season if temps cooperate as it looks like they might. Too bad it’s #sunangleseason though.

Need some decent lift to get the rates needed to cool the surface and overcome the insolation. That may happen in a rather small area. Overall it looks like generally light precip. Too bad on the timing.

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

it would be cool to see daylight snow...I dont think we have seen that...meaning you and I in our region

Agreed. The only “event” for us was that dusting a few weeks back and it all fell between like 4 and 6am. I have a snowball in the freezer to memorialize the score lol

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16 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yeah, even 24 hours out it's a toss up amongst the models lol

Looks like it will be a nowcast type of deal. The way this winter has gone, flakes flying would be a win in my book. Besides, I have a tee time Sunday afternoon hoping to crack 60 degrees. If nothing else, a wild weather week.

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12 hours ago, paulythegun said:

Haha I'm definitely just now realizing that my weather model knowledge is extremely dated. In my head, NAM was just upgraded from 4k to 3k. So is the FV... whatever model the replacement for NAM?

   Sort of.    The FV3 is the model "core".   The GFS already uses the FV3 core.   The NAM uses the NMMB core, and the RAP/HRRR  use the ARW core.    

   The NAM/RAP are technically to be "replaced" by the GFS.   All of the hi-res models (including the NAM Nest and HRRR) will be replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) ensemble system which will use the FV3 core.

 

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

RGEM is a nice period of snow for Baltimore area but temps mostly above freezing. GFS shows temps at or even slightly below freezing. 3k NAM has a flurry maybe?

      The NAM Nest is pretty clearly a dry outlier;  it looks like every other model (including the NAM parent) has snow here tomorrow.     You're spot on, though, that the temperatures are super tricky.    It's tough to imagine a scenario in which the roads get messy (unless the rates are *really* impressive), but I can definitely envision some accumulation on grassy surfaces and decks.

 

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5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Let's go - I'm on board.  Normally I would be telling late Feb events (unless we were measuring in feet) to fuck off, but since we've gotten basically a dusting all year, we run with different season-end criteria at the moment.

I'm on board for an actual snowstorm lol.  I don't know about this one, but I know others are happy just to see snow.  In late February...I'm happy to see a snowstorm, but I've pretty much retired from cartoppers for the season.  Maybe this will surprise for a couple hours for the southern crew.

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1 hour ago, 87storms said:

I'm on board for an actual snowstorm lol.  I don't know about this one, but I know others are happy just to see snow.  In late February...I'm happy to see a snowstorm, but I've pretty much retired from cartoppers for the season.  Maybe this will surprise for a couple hours for the southern crew.

Some of us haven't even had a cartopper yet... that's whats crazy. If I see a half inch it will be my biggest event of the season here just E of BWI

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