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March Medium/Long Range Discussion


WinterWxLuvr
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31 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS is not worth posting any snow maps.bad shift last 4 runs for next weekend.  Hopefully, we will reverse course with this weekend’s model runs.

That is significant coming from you. Persistence rules, including the semi permanent WAR/SE ridge.   One chance mid-month, but even that may not happen. 

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23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Straight up blizzard for the Great Lakes in about half of these ensemble runs. 

f180.thumb.gif.9f4673a7e0bde9608f9fedd044e70a37.gif

 

21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Wrong forum Chuck. Now dont you start. Or Randy is gonna be forced to say it to ya.

I don’t think he’s trolling.  I agree it’s a good thing the pattern is active. I know we’re running out of climo but as the block retrogrades the opposite will happen under it. As the ridge links with the pac ridge it will start to apply pressure under it and the thermal boundary will sag southeast in the means. By mid month the default base state of the boundary is likely to be far enough southeast for us to have a legit shot. For now seeing how active the wave train is bodes well for later. 
 

All this is about the mean. These changes don’t happen linearly or smoothly. The boundary will shift around and progress in a chaotic way.  It’s possible we luck out before mid March if the chaos we’re to break our way.  But later is when the mean configuration is likely to be more favorable. chuck was just pointing out how wet the pattern is which bodes well when the boundary does get right. We won’t be able to afford weeks of dry. We’re gonna get one or two wave shots at this at most before climo degrades too much.  

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10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mean, cards on the table, I know most of us are sitting on somewhere around a T to maybe a .5 on the season, but I've been literally up at night concerned for the Boston area. It is 100% fucking heartening to know they might pull out a save. Good for them, truly. 

I concur! Hear hear!! I mean, cheering them on HAS to be good karma for us right? 

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12 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Fuckin A!!!   Look what I just found online!   You can have a HECS every weekend!

 

https://backyardsnowstorm.com/

It still needs to be cold, which this winter has been lacking. I built a homemade version of what they are selling. It requires cold and calm wind. Also your neighbors look at you funny.

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4 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

It still needs to be cold, which this winter has been lacking. I built a homemade version of what they are selling. It requires cold and calm wind. Also your neighbors look at you funny.

Lmao of course somebody built a homemade one.  I wouldn't worry about cold....build one big enough and "it'll make its own cold air".  Weenie rule #14.

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43 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lmao of course somebody built a homemade one.  I wouldn't worry about cold....build one big enough and "it'll make its own cold air".  Weenie rule #14.

Whatever happened to the guy down by Richmond?  Think his ID was MidlothianSnowmaker?  He used to setup his own snowmaking machine in the his backyard whenever it would get cold enough and let it run constantly.  Would build a pile and then see how late into the Summer it would last.  He routinely had snow in late May, and perhaps later.  Haven't seen him posting for a few years.  He knew ALL about homemade snowmaking equipment. 

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