jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I bet ya we'll get a 6-12" or greater snowstorm when the -NAO lifts toward neutral (It just might not last a while) There is something to be said here. We often get the “biggies” (6-12+) on the tail end of mature blocks as the NAO heads toward neutral. PSU is also right about needing some luck to score when we see a -NAO initially take hold. There’s a week or so lag downstream (often takes a storm or two to drag the boundary south) We don’t typically see snowstorms within the first few days of a block setting up, and the biggies often occur on the tail end. Would be nice to also score a moderate event as the block is entrenchedIf we can manage one biggie plus an advisory to low end warning event over the next 3 weeks, the metros could manage a 50-60% climo year despite how awful this winter has been. That’d be an absolute win given how stacked the cards have been against us. The problem is we still have to overcome a hostile PAC, which could limit our chances. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: There is something to be said here. We often get the “biggies” (6-12+) on the tail end of mature blocks as the NAO heads toward neutral. PSU is also right about needing some luck to score when we see a -NAO initially take hold. There’s a week or so lag downstream (often takes a storm or two to drag the boundary south) We don’t typically see snowstorms within the first few days of a block setting up, and the biggies often occur on the tail end. Would be nice to also score a moderate event as the block is entrenched If we can manage one biggie plus an advisory to low end warning event over the next 3 weeks, the metros could manage a 50-60% climo year despite how awful this winter has been. That’d be an absolute win given how stacked the cards have been against us. The problem is we still have to overcome a hostile PAC, which could limit our chances. . 40s over the Davis Straight and rain to central Greenland does not really bode well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is what you want. stout S/W over Ark-La-Tex with lots of confluence over SE Canada You don't want that ++EPO. The cold air will get cutoff (for the MA). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: You don't want that ++EPO. The cold air will get cutoff. there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 geps went crazy 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: there's enough cold air if the SLP runs to the south with all of that confluence over SE Canada I bet you the soundings at the surface are marginal all across the board(model runs). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: See my previous post. Too broad-brush to say the 'NAO/50-50' are causing suppression, when it is really the timing/location of a specific piece of energy associated with what's going out west that is the primary problem. I'm moving on. Let's hope neither my suppression nor your too warm NW things verify and we both cash in. Can we agree on that at least? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 wow 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 It's trending away from a colder pattern in general, like a see-saw, duality matrix. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: wow Which model is better in your opinion at handling the upper features at this range which is causing the output we see? Would you put more stock in the GEPS EPS or GEFS? Thanks for your optimism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Which model is better in your opinion at handling the upper features at this range which is causing the output we see? Would you put more stock in the GEPS EPS or GEFS? Thanks for your optimism. it's really tough to say at this point in time. I'm leaning towards the GEPS/EPS only because they have more confluence, which is what you'd expect with a developing block. this isn't really relevant to you guys, but this has been happening with the Monday system... confluence has been steadily increasing over the last day or so, which is leading to a farther S track not to say that this will happen here, but I would lean towards that rather than a complete lack of confluence 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's trending away from a colder pattern in general, like a see-saw, duality matrix. Thank the gods finally some relief from the brutal cold of January/February 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 It's trending away from a colder pattern in general, like a see-saw, duality matrix. Models were never really depicting very cold air. Just a workable pattern with blocking, the boundary dragging south, and the SER suppressed for a window of time. Timing has always been paramount for this window to work. It’s march… we’re not going to get heart of climo type departures when we’re banking on the NAO with a suppressed SER to do most of the dirty work for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 the GEFS also has a legit KU pattern once towards the 10th but we can put that on the backburner for now 2 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Only up to 90 on the Euro, no huge changes vs 0z so far 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 So it's def more amp'd than 0z so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Frozen enteres the area at 150...0 line just south of DC 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, stormtracker said: Frozen enteres the area at 150...0 line just south of DC Euro gonna double down 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 156 is. heavy, but probably not snow? Heavy precip overhead with 0 850 down in VA Beach. SFC Fz line is south central PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Euro gonna double down Randy forgot to tell us ante up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 out of the area by 162 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: 156 is. heavy, but probably not snow? Heavy precip overhead with 0 850 down in VA Beach. SFC Fz line is south central PA 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Sold. Close the curtains on winter after that. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12-18 across the area 8 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro making it happen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 That was awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Sold. Close the curtains on winter after that. Upper levels are pretty solid on this panel, widespread -5C at 850 and -3C at 925. Surface is mid 30s though, but as depicted that's a paste bomb no doubt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Well damn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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