2023 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET for 94L has TS getting to 100 miles N of N Leewards moving NW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  96 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.1N  44.5W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 17.10.2023   96  12.1N  44.5W     1009            30
    0000UTC 18.10.2023  108  12.3N  47.5W     1007            34
    1200UTC 18.10.2023  120  13.0N  50.6W     1006            42
    0000UTC 19.10.2023  132  13.9N  53.4W     1003            48
    1200UTC 19.10.2023  144  15.3N  55.8W     1000            49
    0000UTC 20.10.2023  156  17.0N  58.9W      997            47
    1200UTC 20.10.2023  168  18.8N  61.6W      995            44

[Floydbuster]

Seems like four scenarios thus far:

• 1. Strong major hurricane (like Lee) taking track north of islands
• 2. Strong major hurricane striking islands
• 3. Weaker storm/hurricane (Like Nigel and Philippe) taking track north of islands
• 4. Weaker storm (Like Bret) striking islands 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm leaning out to sea for this, just a feeling, but the Euro ensemble mean is awfully close.  Lot of 100+ knot storms in there as well

[Windspeed]

[Windspeed]

Look at what 24 hours can do to modeling. Nearly everything is trending down in intensity guidance for 94L. Shear and subsidence are being picked up, and the ensembles look much less enthusiastic about a well organized TC near or NE of the Lesser Antilles. We may still very well get a named TC threatening the Leewards, but less likely to be a formidable hurricane.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NHC dropped 2 day odds to 60%.  I see a low to mid level circulation 8.5N 36W.  ASCAT pass from 7 hours ago suggested no well organized surface low (although winds are generally cyclonic) and not very strong (15 to 20 knot max) winds near there.  Most deep convection NW of where I see the spin.  6Z GFS gets it to Puerto Rico because it is so week it gets turned back to the SW.  Euro ensembles show that, the members that threaten the islands are weak.  SHIPS gets it to a hurricane, but stronger shear after 3 days forecast to keep it to a Cat 1

[jbenedet]

Very boring outside of what could develop south of Cuba around 3/4.
 

Feeble signal but it’s there, subtly, nonetheless on EPS and GEFS.

[LoboLeader1]

Bottom line is Climatology won out, 

On 10/15/2023 at 9:07 AM, Windspeed said:

Look at what 24 hours can do to modeling. Nearly everything is trending down in intensity guidance for 94L. Shear and subsidence are being picked up, and the ensembles look much less enthusiastic about a well organized TC near or NE of the Lesser Antilles. We may still very well get a named TC threatening the Leewards, but less likely to be a formidable hurricane.

Chalk one up for Climatology.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Back from a  2 lemon to a cherry again.  Still looks kind of 'meh'.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The Guadeloupe hurricane not well supported by other guidance, but the most interesting scenario.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

NHC morning TWOAT suggests a PTC may be coming as soon as this afternoon for TS watches in the N Lesser Antilles.  New GFS passes close enough to the St Martin and US and British VI for TS conditions Saturday.  Candian sees a weak wave moving W which starts to develop as it moves N out of the Caribbean.    NOAA tail doppler mission tomorrow morning.

[marsman]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Twenty-One, located near the southern coast of Nicaragua, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC).

[Windspeed]

ACE has now surpassed 140 thanks to Hurricane Tammy's persistence. Barring some ridiculous unforseen WCARIB activity during the remaining weeks of the season, I think we're nearing the close. Consider that last year's total ACE didn't even surpass 100, despite one of the costliest hurricanes in American history. Yet, yadda yadda, it only takes one. It's still one of the weirdest El Niño years in my lifetime, but thanks to a strong +AMO, this was a very active season.

I must add that having a strong El Niño was a blessing. Despite the overall activity, quite a bulky pattern of shear managed to keep many of our MDR systems in check. And virtually nothing strong got within a whiff of the SE CONUS, beyond the homegrown WCARIB/GOM major hurricane Idalia. Imagine long-trackers without the shear? Could have been another 2017.

[WxWatcher007]

I’m squarely in late fall mode and will do a review of my peak season forecast soon but it looks like there’s some higher end potential in the Caribbean in the next two weeks. 

[Floydbuster]

Ditto on the Western Caribbean. The ensembles of the EURO and GEFS continue to show low pressure around the first week of November.

[cptcatz]

Last two runs of GFS going all in with a cat 5 in the western Caribbean

[Rtd208]

 

[cptcatz]

Might be time to start discussing the Caribbean potential storm.  GFS is now with development insie 4 days.  Euro not seeing it but has support with EPS.

[NorthHillsWx]

It won’t amount to anything, but 96L looks like a tropical cyclone. Definitely developed a LLC and has been maintaining convection for at least 12 hours

[nwohweather]

Not a bad season all in all with 7 hurricanes & 3 big dogs (especially Lee). One thing I find very interesting is that while it seems the ability for hurricanes to rapidly intensify is increasing, it appears that it's becoming harder for anything not in the GOM to hit the US. In a warming world where we're probably seeing more "storminess" you've got more opportunities to deflect systems coming from the Atlantic.

[jconsor]

While climo is heavily in favor of no TC development from here on out, the pattern suggests we still need to keep a wary eye on the Caribbean next week.

 

 

 

[jconsor]

Signal for tropical cyclone formation in the W. Caribbean by late next week (and northward movement thereafter) has grown.
 

 

[MattPetrulli]

[MattPetrulli]

1. Southwestern Caribbean Sea:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form in the southwestern 
Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week. Thereafter, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
while it meanders in the Caribbean Sea through the latter part of 
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

[jbenedet]

Sub tropical system for the Texas coast late Sunday into Monday. Likely not officially recognized as such but the guidance clearly shows those features.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 hours ago, jbenedet said:

Sub tropical system for the Texas coast late Sunday into Monday. Likely not officially recognized as such but the guidance clearly shows those features.

Latest 12Z GFS phase forecast via FSU web site is cold core.  Highs here forecast in the low 60s Monday, I had thought of it earlier looking at the models as the Texas version of a Nor'Easter, just at least a month too early for snow.  I imagine the 1895 storm resembled it.

 

NHC lemon seems mostly driven by the GFS and family, but it has a few Euro ensemble members that develop a TC strength system.

 

https://www.khou.com/article/news/by-the-numbers-houstons-history-of-snow/285-d9b65f7a-f789-42f0-9ca8-50ff6ce16455#:~:text=But as hard as it,in the history of Houston.

 

[cptcatz]

Back to back euro runs show the Caribbean storm miss the front and lingers, strengthening into a hurricane...

[jbenedet]

Cursory look at vis satellite—looks like a TD in the Bay of Campeche at sunrise this morning.

[jbenedet]

14 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Latest 12Z GFS phase forecast via FSU web site is cold core.  Highs here forecast in the low 60s Monday, I had thought of it earlier looking at the models as the Texas version of a Nor'Easter, just at least a month too early for snow.  I imagine the 1895 storm resembled it.

 

NHC lemon seems mostly driven by the GFS and family, but it has a few Euro ensemble members that develop a TC strength system.

 

https://www.khou.com/article/news/by-the-numbers-houstons-history-of-snow/285-d9b65f7a-f789-42f0-9ca8-50ff6ce16455#:~:text=But as hard as it,in the history of Houston.

 

Too early for snow but not too late for something Tropical. 

Yea there’s nothing “tropical” about the weather in Texas right now, but that’s not where the storm is developing. The area of interest is 300 miles south in the Bay of Campeche.

[GaWx]

9 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Back to back euro runs show the Caribbean storm miss the front and lingers, strengthening into a hurricane...

 For the first time I can recall, the UKMET (12Z) has TCG for this in their textual product. Actual TCG isn’t until the C Bahamas after which it moves NE toward Bermuda as a 994 mb TS:

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 22.3N  73.6W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 18.11.2023  144  22.3N  73.6W     1001            32
    0000UTC 19.11.2023  156  25.2N  69.9W     1000            40
    1200UTC 19.11.2023  168  30.0N  64.9W      994            42