February 8-9 Should There Be a Thread For This Storm

[Hoosier]

Plenty of confidence now in a dynamically cooled setup allowing for a decent band of snow accumulations, as a negatively tilted shortwave moves through the area with fairly rapid surface low deepening (bombogenesis-like?).  

The main snow band looks to avoid the vast majority of posters here, but at least some will get in on it.  With that being the case, I figured we could make this one an all-emcompassing thread as some decent rains look to occur on the warm side, along with a period of gusty winds given the robust deepening and relatively quick movement through the region. 

[cyclone77]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Plenty of confidence now in a dynamically cooled setup allowing for a decent band of snow accumulations, as a negatively tilted shortwave moves through the area with fairly rapid surface low deepening (bombogenesis-like?).  

The main snow band looks to avoid the vast majority of posters here, but at least some will get in on it.  With that being the case, I figured we could make this one an all-emcompassing thread as some decent rains look to occur on the warm side, along with a period of gusty winds given the robust deepening and relatively quick movement through the region. 

Looks like the CR crew could cash in if things go perfectly.  

May see the grassy surfaces dust up some here in the QCA for a time Thu.  Prob enough to bump MLI over the all-time futility mark unfortunately.

[Chicago Storm]

zzz


.

[hawkeye_wx]

The 00z Euro did become stronger and snowier compared to the 12z run.  Of course, this will be very wet, low-ratio snow, and if the Euro is too cold by a degree this forecast will bust.  This is the snowiest of all the models this evening.  I would err on the low side.  DVN, this afternoon, said not much snow south of Waterloo-Dubuque.  That's certainly possible.

I can't help but get a bit angry because we finally get a rare, strengthening low, loaded with moisture, tracking from St. Louis to Chicago (maybe once every few years track) and there is no f'ing cold air.... in early February.  19 times out of 20 this is a big snowstorm.

[Hoosier]

As far as the wind, there is a zone of 925 mb winds of 50 to possibly 55 kts on Thursday.  Assuming the system deepens about as progged, it should lead to a solid wind advisory event with some areas possibly approaching high wind warning criteria.

[CheeselandSkies]

3 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 00z Euro did become stronger and snowier compared to the 12z run.  Of course, this will be very wet, low-ratio snow, and if the Euro is too cold by a degree this forecast will bust.  This is the snowiest of all the models this evening.  I would err on the low side.  DVN, this afternoon, said not much snow south of Waterloo-Dubuque.  That's certainly possible.

I can't help but get a bit angry because we finally get a rare, strengthening low, loaded with moisture, tracking from St. Louis to Chicago (maybe once every few years track) and there is no f'ing cold air.... in early February.  19 times out of 20 this is a big snowstorm.

It should be noted that the Euro has >12" of snow for Marquette and Green Lake Counties, WI inside of 72 hours...and there are currently NO winter weather headlines in effect for those counties.

[Baum]

4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 00z Euro did become stronger and snowier compared to the 12z run.  Of course, this will be very wet, low-ratio snow, and if the Euro is too cold by a degree this forecast will bust.  This is the snowiest of all the models this evening.  I would err on the low side.  DVN, this afternoon, said not much snow south of Waterloo-Dubuque.  That's certainly possible.

I can't help but get a bit angry because we finally get a rare, strengthening low, loaded with moisture, tracking from St. Louis to Chicago (maybe once every few years track) and there is no f'ing cold air.... in early February.  19 times out of 20 this is a big snowstorm.

what he said.

[A-L-E-K]

at least the soaker should rinse away the salt and crime to prep for the torch and spring

[Cary67]

This weekend Norge event

[Baum]

17 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

at least the soaker should rinse away the salt and crime to prep for the torch and spring

if only it was that easy.

[A-L-E-K]

25 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

This weekend Norge event

classic

[SolidIcewx]

Me at work after all the rain and snow melt 

[madwx]

This is a perfect storm to use positive snow depth change model outputs.  Kuchera and especially 10:1 are going to to far overestimate actually accumulation along the rain snow line

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro is super juiced, with a very heavy burst of snow Thursday morning.  Other models show considerably less precip and snow.  I'm still thinking 3" of snow in my yard, at most.  This stuff will be concrete.  DVN is thinking a 4-6:1 ratio.

[Hoosier]

12z Euro would certainly support a potential window of high wind warning criteria winds in parts of the LOT cwa (especially southeast 1/3 or so) and much of the IWX cwa.

[sbnwx85]

Good call, @Hoosier IWX just issued a rare High Wind Watch. 

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
230 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023

INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-
204-216-MIZ078>081-177-277-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-
080330-
/O.NEW.KIWX.HW.A.0001.230209T1200Z-230210T0000Z/
Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-
Fulton IN-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-
Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Northern La Porte-
Eastern St. Joseph IN-Northern Kosciusko-Southern La Porte-
Western St. Joseph IN-Southern Kosciusko-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Northern Berrien-Southern Berrien-Williams-
Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
Including the cities of Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Lagrange,
Topeka, Shipshewana, Angola, Fremont, Kendallville, Ligonier,
Albion, Auburn, Garrett, Knox, North Judson, Bass Lake, Winamac,
Francesville, Medaryville, Plymouth, Bremen, Culver, Rochester,
Akron, Columbia City, Tri-Lakes, South Whitley, Fort Wayne,
New Haven, Monticello, Monon, Brookston, Logansport,
Royal Center, Peru, Grissom AFB, Mexico, Wabash,
North Manchester, Huntington, Roanoke, Bluffton, Ossian, Decatur,
Berne, Marion, Gas City, Upland, Hartford City, Montpelier,
Portland, Dunkirk, Michigan City, La Porte, Kingsbury, Fish Lake,
South Bend, Mishawaka, Lakeville, Granger, Syracuse, Milford,
North Webster, Leesburg, Wanatah, La Crosse, Union Mills,
North Liberty, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Warsaw, Winona Lake,
Silver Lake, Mentone, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg,
Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, Mendon,
Coldwater, Bronson, Hillsdale, Jonesville, Litchfield,
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Paw Paw Lake, Niles, New Buffalo,
Stevensville, Berrien Springs, Bryan, Edgerton, Wauseon,
Archbold, Swanton, Delta, Defiance, Sherwood, Hicksville,
Napoleon, Deshler, Liberty Center, Paulding, Antwerp, Payne,
Ottawa, Leipsic, Columbus Grove, Continental, Pandora, Van Wert,
Ohio City, Lima, and Spencerville
230 PM EST Tue Feb 7 2023 /130 PM CST Tue Feb 7 2023/

...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with frequent gusts of 45 to
  55 mph. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph possible.

* WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana, southwest Michigan and
  northwest Ohio.

* WHEN...From Thursday morning through early Thursday evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines.
  Power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult,
  especially for high profile vehicles.

[hawkeye_wx]

DMX and DVN have issued a winter storm watch for central to northeast Iowa.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, hawkeye_wx said:

DMX and DVN have issued a winter storm watch for central to northeast Iowa.

Winter storm watch also up for Wisconsin counties west and north of Dane.

[cyclone77]

Looks like a solid rainer for the QC, probably 1-1.5".  Think we'll see a burst of snow at the end Thu but good chance it's not measurable.  

[madwx]

0Z models say wagons SE so far

[hawkeye_wx]

1 minute ago, madwx said:

0Z models say wagons SE so far

Definitely.  The 18z Euro was a bit southeast, then the NAMs shifted way east.  The HRRR has always been on the east edge and hasn't budged.  The western part of the watch area in Iowa is being deserted by the models.

[hawkeye_wx]

Man, another system, more model frustration.  Tonight, half the models show little, if any, precip in much of the Iowa winter storm watch that was just issued this afternoon.  The GFS still hits my area hard, but other models are east and weak with the backside precip.  I don't know what the NWS is going to do with the forecast.

[cyclone77]

3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Man, another system, more model frustration.  Tonight, half the models show little, if any, precip in much of the Iowa winter storm watch that was just issued this afternoon.  The GFS still hits my area hard, but other models are east and weak with the backside precip.  I don't know what the NWS is going to do with the forecast.

I'd guess 3-5" in the main swath with isolated higher amounts.  You guys are probably gonna be pretty much in that.  I'd put the spine of the band from Oskaloosa up to about Prairie du Chien.  Looks like the best chance at 5+ will be further north towards Prairie du Chien and into southwest WI where the storm maxes out.

[hawkeye_wx]

The Euro has been the most bullish model with both total precip and snow in Iowa.  Tonight's run pulled the rug out, cutting everything by at least half.  I'm really getting tired of being teased by models this winter.

[CheeselandSkies]

This should be a decent camera to monitor during the height of the snowfall.

 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Miss south stank…

[madwx]

Hoping to thread my morning commute in before the changeover so I can just watch the rippage outside my office window

[hawkeye_wx]

This morning's trend has been positive for eastern Iowa.  The models that were fading southeast have backed up nw a bit and solidified the defo zone precip.

[Chinook]

This 500mb chart makes me think of tornadoes in March. As for now, SPC has 10% enhanced outlook for tornadoes today (-not- enhanced for wind/hail)

[Nelson]

Liking 4-5" for the Madison area crew. Already been mentioned but too bad there isn't some colder air around. Moisture feed looks nice.