rclab Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Nibor said: ?????forky????? As aways …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: My biggest event of the season Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Same here. We've had less than 0.5 for the year This wont endanger the historic nature of this season so I feel it's okay to root for this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states). The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 This is how I see the next month playing out Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: This is how I see the next month playing out Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. it can snow here in early April too it did in 2018 and a few other years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Long range on the ensembles all show a progression to a colder pattern. The PNA does not go positive through the 15 day period. HOWEVER, the RNA does go above -1 SD on the charts (on the ensembles represented as a trough that does not go into the Baja and therefore a SE ridge that is muted into the gulf states). The main difference of the ensemble suites is the GEFS gives us a brief window around the 6th before the 10th while the EPS is rather warm until the 10th Summary - still on track for the 10th +, - a couple days for our window. How large is this window? March 10 - April 10 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, LibertyBell said: How large is this window? March 10 - April 10 ? Hard to tell at this point. It's at least 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 This wind is the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Also note the highly amplified MJO into phase 8 near March 8-10. Phase 8 in March isnt as cold as in other months but it still carries weight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: This is how I see the next month playing out Some snow showers and maybe light accumulations on the 25th aka tomorrow. Storm potential March 3/4 followed by brief warmup (could be very warm for 1-2 days) and then an extended cool period starting near the 10th as heights build in the arctic and strong RNA pattern breaks down. That could last til the end of March and into April. Beyond March 3/4 there's probably another snow window or two in the March 10-25 time frame. After that climo is very much against us even if anomalies stay cold. We probably get something to avoid record low snowfall imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Also note the highly amplified MJO into phase 8 near March 8-10. Phase 8 in March isnt as cold as in other months but it still carries weight IT's better than the 4-5-6 we have seen for the better part of 3 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Allsnow said: We probably get something to avoid record low snowfall imo This winter is still a massive turd and remains the worst by a good margin but I agree that it's unlikely we set a new record for low snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Roll forward trough rises a bit and the SER is muted and does not connect to the NAO and we have big potential. We do not need a POS PNA just a -1sd RNA or higher. To much PNA and we have suppression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 To summarize, watch the WC trough as it is running the show. It touches BAJA and you connect the SER to the NAO. Until it rises I would be skeptical of a pattern change on the op. model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 Nam with the 1.5 to 2" bullseye for parts of the city/NE nj 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 hours ago, snowman19 said: We are not New England. Post 3/15 becomes very difficult to sustain cold and snow at this latitude minus freak, anomalous events. Climo, sun angle and length of day are all working against you big time by then. By the end of March, you have an August sun overhead Actually you have a late September sun by the end of March seeing as the first day of spring is March 20 which would correspond with September 23, the first day of fall. But semantics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Trough touches BAJA, SER connects to NAO and we are warm. With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 And while we are all talking about sun angle, I guess it never snows in Arizona, Mexico, etc because the sun angle there is so much more intense. All that Utah, Colorado snow is just a fable since you need sunscreen this time of year to avoid burning. Must be skiing on ash and not powder. /s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Nam with the 1.5 to 2" bullseye for parts of the city/NE nj 3k has nothing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The UKMET and EPS look much improved for Monday Night (interesting solutions with more precip in our area than ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The 06z Euro is the closest thing to the NAM right now for tomorrow afternoon and evening 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, mikem81 said: The problem is the primary that floods the area with warm temps before the coastal takes over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 20 minutes ago, JustinRP37 said: And while we are all talking about sun angle, I guess it never snows in Arizona, Mexico, etc because the sun angle there is so much more intense. All that Utah, Colorado snow is just a fable since you need sunscreen this time of year to avoid burning. Must be skiing on ash and not powder. /s to be fair elevation neutralizes that and sun angle affects urban areas MUCH more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 25 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: With shortening wavelengths I largely believe such a scenario like that which we saw in December will have a very hard time repeating itself in March Agreed. Also if that second wave was a little weaker in December instead of historically intense, the 3rd wave had a chance to give us a real good event. We were due to strike out in a decent pattern with the way the 2000s have worked in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Agreed. Also if that second wave was a little weaker in December instead of historically intense, the 3rd wave had a chance to give us a real good event. We were due to strike out in a decent pattern with the way the 2000s have worked in our favor. there was a reason it was historically intense. also December isn't really a snow month around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 NAO going negative for first time since early December if this is correct and well timed for Tuesday storm if the confluence is strong enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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