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January 2023


wdrag
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28 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Admittedly I can get skewed by recent model bias but I’d be pretty shocked if nyc metro saw 1-2 inches on Wed at this point.

It's not even going to go below freezing ..... where is this magical snow going to come from?

You may see snowflakes in the air but nothing will accumulate unless it's the same coating we saw with all the other events.

And did you see the track of that storm-- it's a Lakes Cutter!

At some point we have to stop looking at models and acknowledge reality.

 

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I don't lol, there is no arctic air (and you will need that this year to get any real snow) and this storm is a Lakes Cutter with very marginal temps, wet snow quickly changing to rain .....
 

I’m trying to be optimistic lol I’ll get accused of trolling if I say what I really think lol
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Enough Liquid Equivalent to give us 45" of snow----but the GFS can not give us even  3".       At least it "snows" three different times.       I will sneeze once if any of them come off as indicated.       Place to be is Albany,   2.5" L.E.---but a hearty 20" of snow out of it.

1674302400-gU7Nbxbp2gA.png

Fooled Ya.         This is for at least 12".        Seems Albany has the same chance for that much as we do for 1" ie.  70%+.

1675684800-v82wexkylbg.png

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

It's not even going to go below freezing ..... where is this magical snow going to come from?

You may see snowflakes in the air but nothing will accumulate unless it's the same coating we saw with all the other events.

And did you see the track of that storm-- it's a Lakes Cutter!

At some point we have to stop looking at models and acknowledge reality.

 

It would be from WAA front end snow due to the high to the north. Either way I don't expect much of anything but that would be what would produce snow. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Interesting, i work at Columbia a couple blocks from the parks and we had a very solid coating on all colder surfaces, so the park did as well. 

It's possible a coating could still be a T especially if it's only on colder surfaces.

Here on the south shore of Long Island in SW Nassau it only accumulated on cartops and rooftops and JFK also measured a T

 

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15 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

It would be from WAA front end snow due to the high to the north. Either way I don't expect much of anything but that would be what would produce snow. 

There's also a climatic reality that ever since I've been tracking storms, this kind of scenario has always underproduced lol.

 

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Interesting trends with 18z/21 NAM and HRRR. See if it holds for entire I84 corridor. No pronouncement except a bit of snow coming to nw NJ.  Noting NWS has posted advisories for mostly just n of I84.

For those who like to verify models: here's two day CoCoRaHs Numbers.  Certainly not the GFS-GEFS finest day.  I'll think of this as a decent EPS/GEPS blend.  Imperfect modeling in the gradient but certainly a lot more than the GFS wanted to offer.

 

 

Screen Shot 2023-01-21 at 4.41.24 PM.png

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A storm will bring rain to the region later tomorrow into Monday. The precipitation could start as snow north and west of Newark and New York City. The 18z GFS brings a period of accumulating snow to New York City, but it lacks support of the other guidance. Temperatures will remain milder than normal

Overall, the lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least early next week. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period is moderate on the ensembles. However, the National Blend of Models currently shows 0.3" during January 25-26. Things can still change.

A cooler pattern remains on course to develop during the closing days of January. The cooler air should linger through much of the first week of February. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the latter part of the first week of February or early in the second week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +20.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.974 today.

On January 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.703 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.545 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.4° (7.7° above normal).

 

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40 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Interesting trends with 18z/21 NAM and HRRR. See if it holds for entire I84 corridor. No pronouncement except a bit of snow coming to nw NJ.  Noting NWS has posted advisories for mostly just n of I84.

For those who like to verify models: here's two day CoCoRaHs Numbers.  Certainly not the GFS-GEFS finest day.  I'll think of this as a decent EPS/GEPS blend.  Imperfect modeling in the gradient but certainly a lot more than the GFS wanted to offer.

 

 

Screen Shot 2023-01-21 at 4.41.24 PM.png

I have noticed all the models have trended more interesting for I84 corridor and points north with tomorrows storm. The secondary continues to trend east (surprisingly) which should help the I84 corridor.  

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16 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

I have noticed all the models have trended more interesting for I84 corridor and points north with tomorrows storm. The secondary continues to trend east (surprisingly) which should help the I84 corridor.  

Nice trends from the NAM/RGEM/GFS for the 84 corridor. Let’s see if 0z will continue the trend. I’m cautiously optimistic right now 

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26 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

The 18Z GFS would be the best case scenario for both storms, right now it has no support so I'd lean toss.  

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

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5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

Yea I more meant showing a few inches for NYC with storm 2 and the fact it even shows NYC changing to snow at the end of storm 1. I definitely see positive trends North and West for storm 1 across the models. 

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51 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

A storm will bring rain to the region later tomorrow into Monday. The precipitation could start as snow north and west of Newark and New York City. The 18z GFS brings a period of accumulating snow to New York City, but it lacks support of the other guidance. Temperatures will remain milder than normal

Overall, the lengthening measurable snow drought will persist in New York City and Philadelphia through at least early next week. Support for a measurable snowfall during the January 25-27 period is moderate on the ensembles. However, the National Blend of Models currently shows 0.3" during January 25-26. Things can still change.

A cooler pattern remains on course to develop during the closing days of January. The cooler air should linger through much of the first week of February. Afterward, moderation could begin to occur during the latter part of the first week of February or early in the second week.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around January 11. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.82°C. La Niña conditions could fade to neutral conditions during late winter or early spring.

The SOI was +20.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.974 today.

On January 19 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 0.703 (RMM). The January 18-adjusted amplitude was 0.545 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 41.4° (7.7° above normal).

 

The best indication of no cold air on our side of the globe is to have a consistently negative AO and highs are still in the 40s during the supposedly coldest time of the year.

 

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18 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Some support. 18z HRRR. Also the 18z RGEM shifted in that direction. SNE likely to benefit the most. But I'm starting to believe elevated NWNJ through SENY might sneak a few inches on the back side. Elevation looks like it will help as lower boundary levels look slow to cool.

Elevated areas should definitely see some accumulation.  This isn't an inside runner like the next storm is (the one that is supposedly bringing that hypothetical "snow" to NYC lol).

It could be a plowable event from the Poconos to NW NJ.

 

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