Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,541
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Newest Member
    Gonzalez Brittany
    Joined

Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm
 Share

Recommended Posts

GFS goes absolute nuke mode starting around 00z Fri.  Hi-res guidance delays that.
Don't expect the world around Chicago, but it may be a nowcasty type of event.  Still a way to get 6" or even more in the city (esp downtown) IF things break right.

You need to let this one go.


.
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pretty much a no win position for the forecasters. Fantastic model agreement showing a widespread paralyzing blizzard over one of the biggest travel days of the year. You have to beat the drum for the public, but even tempering expectations would not have you expecting this level of bed shitting by the models. Real tough look to go from 10-12+ to T-3 in 48 hours. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GRR going with blizzard warnings for those of us on the west side
 

National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1217 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

LATEST UPDATE...
Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

After coordinating with nearby offices, we are planning to issue
a Winter Storm Warning for our eastern counties from Thursday
evening until Saturday morning (likely 7 am). For our western CWA
very likely we will issue a blizzard warning from Thursday evening
through Saturday afternoon.

The latest model trends over the past 3 runs of those model have
stopped backing off on QPF and continue to support the idea of
sustained winds in the 25 mph range with gusts to 40 mph on
Friday. So the reason to have a blizzard warning over the western
counties is that there would be significantly more snow during the
day on Friday to blow around then there would be over our eastern
counties.
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The lack of a deep moisture feed must have something to do with it.  Models show the deep moisture surging up the east coast and into southeastern Canada... pretty far away from Michigan.

I remember GHD 1 well.  That storm had a big ball of deep gulf moisture on top of the low as it ejected toward the lakes.  That's what we need.

The references to GHD 1 is like Bears fans recalling 1985. Too many pieces have to fall in place to get a storm of that magnitude here. And 98% of the time they don't.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

Will be interesting to see if the other global models (NAM may never get a clue) start to catch on to a 06z GFS solution by the 12z runs.

Would need blizzard warnings across all of Lower MI for that, easily.

6 hours ago, Powerball said:

BTW, DTW finally issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of its CWA. They're hitting the blizzard wording fairly strong too.

Didn't get too specific with amounts, other than calling for the potential of at least 5-6".

Are you in TX for this?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

GFS always too amped. My point was they aren't as far apart at end of the day

In terms of overall evolution, yeah.

But on a micro level, how quicky it deepens and takes on a negative tilt will dictate the extent of snowfall and blizzard conditions the further SE in Michigan you get.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

In terms of overall evolution, yeah.

But on a micro level, how quicky it deepens and takes on a negative tilt will dictate the extent of snowfall and blizzard conditions the further SE in Michigan you get.

Yes, ofc. I want the most amped-up option on the table to verify I just think GFS is being the GFS at this point. Every swings for the fences.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...