Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

December 22-23, 2022: Warm Rain to Arctic Chill


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Remember that well. Actually, January '78 is the time I remember. We were supposed to of gotten in in the great Ohio Valley Blizzard of '78. Warnings were up. 

I also remember that. Was the year I graduated. Due to continuous storms were were off the entire month of January as well as part of February. Mover HS graduation to late June

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Anything to break this silly calm BORING weather!  I'm OK with tomorrow as I will be outside all day.

As for camping, winter camping, nothing like it but a GOOD sleeping bag is ESSENTIAL!  And the winds and wind chills, definitely would have the woodstove in the tent roaring!

Waiting for the FLASH FREEZE.  I know we should get something.  Will be fun doing donuts in the trails with the four wheelers but it's always better with a few inches or more of snow on top of that super hard ice.

If we lose mains (power) wife is gonna be pissed because the EDG is OFFLINE due to parts not being readily available and the smaller genny isn't enough to run everything in the house.  Beats freezing to death I suppose. :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze?

Friday

Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 17.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Sounds intentionally ambiguous and depending on interpretation, probably more interesting than intended. What's certain is 1-2" of rain followed by temps crashing and some impressive wind. Maybe the elusive flash freeze?

Friday

Rain before 1pm, then a slight chance of snow showers between 1pm and 4pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 51. Breezy. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 17.

When it comes to snow our region lends itself to ambiguous forecasts better than anywhere else….

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Weather Will said:

When it comes to snow our region lends itself to ambiguous forecasts better than anywhere else….

Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, CAPE said:

Esp in this situation. It won't be much in any case, could be zero, or perhaps some scattered squalls that could impact travel and increase the chances of roads freezing in some places.

 But it won’t melt..whatever it is…that seems like a distinct possibility 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18Z GFS, continued small favorable trends over the last 6-7 runs. Finally to the point of getting 2 full frames of frozen precip on the back side here in ChesCo PA.

 

Now, I may be wrong, but from what I’m seeing it seems that these favorable trends seem to coincide with a delay in the LP really wrapping up. “Bombing” as the kids say.

 

Is there any truth to that? Feedback appreciated!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Stormfly said:

Carmageddon III?

I remember II very well, Jan 26, 2011.  And for us, the thump came completely by surprise!  House never had such an impressive row of icicles, looked like something out of Day After Tomorrow!

This is a completely different set up.  In 2011 the upper level vort passed just to our south making it a nearly perfect vort passage.  There was crazy dynamics with that storm.. but it was a more of a "standard" set up with a storm passing just to our south.  This is anafront snow.  And in order for anafront snow to work a lot of things need to come together perfectly.  Many times the models will over due these ingredients and show accumulating snow for our region but once it comes we wind up seeing only flurries on the back side of a front.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 But it won’t melt..whatever it is…that seems like a distinct possibility 

There’s a 30% chance that the snow rain or ice will accumulate to somewhere between 0.1 and 3.0 inches, but only a 50% chance of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So between 1 to 4pm Friday the low which meanders for over a day suddenly shoots 300 miles to the east in 3 hours by 4pm and is a baro of 28.70.  Going to be a whole new adventure witnessing that!

That arctic front that pasted us about 10 years ago looks similar to this one.  A low in the lakes as opposed to drier high pressure driven frontal passage with a temperature profile of like 55 at 11am, 30 by 5pm, 20 by midnight and a low of 13.  All the while, with that depicted 970 inland hurricane, 30mph winds around DC gusting to 50.  If it can’t snow it can at least be rowdy windy cold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Absolutely been steadfast showing light accumulation for us.  Hopefully we can get some other guidance on board. 

I have been reading up on Anafront snow events and the key ingredient is the speed and direction of the forward motion of the front along with the wind direction behind the front.  With a slower moving front and wind direction behind the front oriented perpendicular to the cold front, there is a local zone which can still produce enough "lift" in the atmosphere to produce precipitation.

I would need someone who knows what they are talking about to explain better, but my suspicion is that the blocking to our north and east slows the system down enough to produce the anafront anomaly.  

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I saw a drop from 50 to 8 in about 4 hours in 1977. Blizzard warning with a forecast of 1” or less of snow.

I think precisely that may have been the one day in Jan 77 where daytime highs were above average ranging 45-50 and then bang right back into the deep freeze for rest of the month 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...