Pre-Christmas (Dec 21-23rd) Winter Storm

[Chicago Storm]

Add the 0z GFS to the list from a few posts up.
The SE/delayed amping trend is strong, for now.

Add the 0z GEM to the list as well.


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[RogueWaves]

16 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible.

We'll all get some fun, just look at the Accu-map 

 

[rchm2375]

14 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Definitely a weenie run, but probably the best case "spread the wealth" outcome to make as many people happy as possible.

What is a weenie run?  Sorry, I have no idea what any of this means, and am fascinated watching you all discuss this trying to get any info I can out of it. Thanks!

[RogueWaves]

CLE

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The impacts from the low pressure increase dramatically over
Christmas weekend, with accumulating snow, strong winds, and bitter
cold all on the table.

Confidence in the timing/track of the upper-level closed low and
associated surface low begins to improve on this surface low as we
begin to see more and more run-to-run consistency. There is decent
agreement on the general track as the upper-level closed low moves
east across the eastern Great Lakes on Friday and back north to just
south of the Georgian Bay by Christmas Eve. The surface low is
expected to make a similar trajectory as the upper-level low, though
may briefly retrograde into central-lower Michigan on Friday before
moving north. Continued intensification of the low is expected on
Friday with general model consensus having the surface low bottoming
out around 970 mb by 00Z/Sat. An intense cold front will move across
the area Friday morning, causing a rapid temperature drop, very
strong winds, and a transition of rain to snow. Because numerous
hazards are expected with this system, each of these hazards will be
discussed in greater detail separately below:

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, rchm2375 said:

What is a weenie run?  Sorry, I have no idea what any of this means, and am fascinated watching you all discuss this trying to get any info I can out of it. Thanks!

Weenie run meaning it's likely too generous with the snowfall amounts, as well as how widespread those snowfall amounts will be.

[Harry Perry]

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Almost no difference for far SEMI between Kuchie and SLR. Tells me our snow will be wetter. At least initially. Fluff to follow-on via LM

Yeah, should make a thick crust of ice/slush beneath. Travel will be a nightmare. Nice hearing from you, been a minute.
 

[mimillman]

Don’t worry Detroit and Indy crew, plenty of time for tomorrow’s 12z suite to bring ‘er back 

[Cary67]

7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Or for it to end up going back west a bit, Chicago usually has the magnet 

Would say Detroit more so than Chicago last several winters. Although when it does snow has favored southside of Chicago and LES bail out for downtown

[RogueWaves]

2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Don’t worry Detroit and Indy crew, plenty of time for tomorrow’s 12z suite to bring ‘er back 

Jan '99 gave Detroit her front side. Dec '22 gonna give us her backside

[RogueWaves]

1 minute ago, Cary67 said:

Would say Detroit more so than Chicago last several winters. Although when it does snow has favored southside of Chicago and LES bail out for downtown

LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

[mimillman]

2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

Hah that’s funny. Where da RFD posters at 

[Harry Perry]

Bonus on the GFS, shows a decent clipper on the heals of the departing system. Starts Sunday evening and drops a few more inches across southern Minnesota, most of Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana. Brings more moisture and lift into the DGZ for the LES belts - even with the disturbance passing south of the lakes, enough to squeeze another 1-3” for western lower Michigan, maybe more. Still a long way off. 

[Cary67]

5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA

Can someone bring up  map of those totals. Pretty sure it was LES hit and southside.

[Chicago Storm]

Add the 0z GEM to the list as well.


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As well as the 0z UKMET.


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[Chicago Storm]

Can someone bring up  map of those totals. Pretty sure it was LES hit and southside.

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[Cary67]

8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

 

I stand in error. Although that must have been one of the best snows for NW areas out towards Rockford of the season. RFD only had 21.9" total last year

[tuanis]

6 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

I stand in error. Although that must have been one of the best snows for NW areas out towards Rockford of the season.

That was a kickass storm over here. Several positive surprises and no marginal temps or mixing. It kicked off that legendary deep and cold February.
 

Most events since then have been kind of klunkers north and northwest of the city. Let’s hope this one has some happy surprises too. Sometimes an arctic airmass nearby can help make that happen.

[Powerball]

00z GEFS shifted east as well, with the mean track over Cleveland.

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, Powerball said:

00z GEFS shifted east as well, with the mean track over Cleveland.

 

Looks more like Detroit? 

[Harry]

Just saw another image. See let's talk winter thread. Just north of Sandusky over the lake.. 

[Powerball]

2 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Looks more like Detroit? 

From the Ohio Thread:

 

[weathafella]

UKMET is MI centric.

[michsnowfreak]

51 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

LOL. Late Jan '21 smashed Chicago. Detroit got NADA

That particular storm did. It also gave Chicago some near record snow depths in Feb 2021. But for the most part, Detroit has had the better luck the last 3 years.

[Harry]

3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

From the Ohio Thread:

 

 

Yeah.. See my reply above.lol Too bad it's trending weaker with the eastward shift.. ugh

[hlcater]

Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI.

First call 3-5" with some wind afterward.

 

(I'll clarify by saying at this juncture I am confident in at least 3-5", not that we cant potentially get more)

[outflow]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

Just saw another image. See let's talk winter thread. Just north of Sandusky over the lake.. 

What the hell is the SWC and what drug were they on when they posted that best guess low track map

[cyclone77]

6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Trends pretty terrible for those west of the lakes tonight. Hard to get a good storm if your low doesn't deepen until E MI.

First call 3-5" with some wind afterward.

It was all downhill after last night's GFS/ICON extravaganza.  Luckily by this morning I had already accepted our fate that the big dog threat was over for the dvn cwa.  Like many have said at least we'll get some cover for a nice white Christmas for once lol.

[HillsdaleMIWeather]

Hoping it trends a little more stronger in the future runs, everyone deserves something from this

[hlcater]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

It was all downhill after last night's GFS/ICON extravaganza.  Luckily by this morning I had already accepted our fate that the big dog threat was over for the dvn cwa.  Like many have said at least we'll get some cover for a nice white Christmas for once lol.

We still may see blizzard conditions with the arctic front, but anything truly noteworthy (like that is still talked about years later) for our area is probably off the table. What is interesting is that the low track actually ends up being quite favorable, it's just that on these runs tonight, the surface low is hardly existent as it transits IL.