December 2022

[MJO812]

Just now, bluewave said:

Would make sense given how ISP has become the new snowfall capitol arias the area.

Seriously and parts of Central NJ

[Volcanic Winter]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Your passion for snow is evident, but don’t you live at or near Tom’s River?

That’s not exactly a cold locale for NJ in the winter. You might need to move northwest. 

I lived in North Brunswick prior and grew up in central Monmouth. 
 

I honestly do alright by me. I’m very recessed from the ocean and on the western border of TR and Manchester. On my Tempest, my overnight lows are readily well below the city. Already been down to 19F this Dec. from a temperature standpoint being near the Pine Barrens helps tremendously and I tend to avoid immediate coast ocean influence with the exception of extreme onshore flow. 
 

I do miss north / south oriented storm cutoffs and the consistency of snow up north, but playing the lottery of coastal bombs often leaves me more than satisfied. 1/29/22 we got 16 inches and for the month wasnt far off 30 IIRC at my house. I’ll take it. If the ACY storm was further north a hair I would’ve added quite a bit more to total. I love playing the coastal bomb lottery here bc once in a while it pays off beautifully. 
 

With that said, I have long term plans to move into upstate Ny or NE. And I work just outside Newark, so I end up participating in more north NJ oriented events anyway. 
 

I def wouldn’t want to live on the extreme coast as my parents do, I definitely live in a sweet spot for the southern part of central NJ. The temperature difference from My house to theirs is rather extreme at times, and I tend to get much more snow than them. 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Seriously and parts of Central NJ

Yeah, ISP has become the new Boston for 16”+ snowstorms since the super El Niño. There have been 4 events at ISP and only 1 at Boston. So ISP has been the place to be for big snowstorms in recent years.
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	24.7	2022-01-29	0
2	23.7	2016-01-24	0
			0
			0
3	18.4	2018-03-22	0
			0
4	16.0	2018-01-04	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	23.8	2022-01-29	0

[Gravity Wave]

Things are definitely heading back in our direction after yesterday's scare. Given how this has developed so far I'm expecting more curveballs.

[LibertyBell]

11 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I lived in North Brunswick prior and grew up in central Monmouth. 
 

I honestly do alright by me. I’m very recessed from the ocean and on the western border of TR and Manchester. On my Tempest, my overnight lows are readily well below the city. Already been down to 19F this Dec. from a temperature standpoint being near the Pine Barrens helps tremendously and I tend to avoid immediate coast ocean influence with the exception of extreme onshore flow. 
 

I do miss north / south oriented storm cutoffs and the consistency of snow up north, but playing the lottery of coastal bombs often leaves me more than satisfied. 1/29/22 we got 16 inches and for the month wasnt far off 30 IIRC at my house. I’ll take it. If the ACY storm was further north a hair I would’ve added quite a bit more to total. I love playing the coastal bomb lottery here bc once in a while it pays off beautifully. 
 

With that said, I have long term plans to move into upstate Ny or NE. And I work just outside Newark, so I end up participating in more north NJ oriented events anyway. 
 

I def wouldn’t want to live on the extreme coast as my parents do. The temperature difference from My house to theirs is rather extreme at times, and I tend to get much more snow than them. 

I was just going to say that Ocean and Monmouth County are the new big snowfall capitals of NJ lol

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, ISP has become the new Boston for 16”+ snowstorms since the super El Niño. There have been 4 events at ISP and only 1 at Boston. So ISP has been the place to be for big snowstorms in recent years.
 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	24.7	2022-01-29	0
2	23.7	2016-01-24	0
			0
			0
3	18.4	2018-03-22	0
			0
4	16.0	2018-01-04	0

 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Ending Date	Missing Days
1	23.8	2022-01-29	0

Has any place been better than ISP for those big snowfalls on Long Island?

BNL or somewhere on the north shore in eastern LI might be doing even better (like somewhere around Mt Sinai.)

 

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I lived in North Brunswick prior and grew up in central Monmouth. 
 

I honestly do alright by me. I’m very recessed from the ocean and on the western border of TR and Manchester. On my Tempest, my overnight lows are readily well below the city. Already been down to 19F this Dec. from a temperature standpoint being near the Pine Barrens helps tremendously and I tend to avoid immediate coast ocean influence with the exception of extreme onshore flow. 
 

I do miss north / south oriented storm cutoffs and the consistency of snow up north, but playing the lottery of coastal bombs often leaves me more than satisfied. 1/29/22 we got 16 inches and for the month wasnt far off 30 IIRC at my house. I’ll take it. If the ACY storm was further north a hair I would’ve added quite a bit more to total. I love playing the coastal bomb lottery here bc once in a while it pays off beautifully. 
 

With that said, I have long term plans to move into upstate Ny or NE. And I work just outside Newark, so I end up participating in more north NJ oriented events anyway. 
 

I def wouldn’t want to live on the extreme coast as my parents do. The temperature difference from My house to theirs is rather extreme at times, and I tend to get much more snow than them. 

it reminds of a snowy version of the coastal fronts in Fla lol.

[brooklynwx99]

the issue is that the GEFS completely whiffed on an anomalous 50/50... this 50/50 aids in the development of blocking, so it's easy to see why the GEFS looked crappy for a while given that it was missing this feature

[Volcanic Winter]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I was just going to say that Ocean and Monmouth County are the new big snowfall capitals of NJ lol

 

Yeah. I genuinely don’t have any complaints given my latitude. We can do very well. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the issue is that the GEFS completely whiffed on an anomalous 50/50... this 50/50 aids in the development of blocking, so it's easy to see why the GEFS looked crappy for a while given that it was missing this feature

It’s still a tad too much SE ridge post day 10, whether that’s a long term thing or just a brief 5-7 day shift while the pattern goes more -EPO remains to be seen 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Has any place been better than ISP for those big snowfalls on Long Island?

BNL or somewhere on the north shore in eastern LI might be doing even better (like somewhere around Mt Sinai.)

 

ISP has been the best spot since the super El Niño.

 

Individual events and the highest snowfall totals

2022

Jan 28-29….Islip….24.7

2021

Jan 31-Feb 2....Blomingdale, NJ.....26.1

2020

Dec 16-17 East Tremont, NY....12.4

2019

Mar 3-4...Monroe, CT....12.0

2018

Nov 15....Mount Hope, NY.......18.3

Mar 21-22...Patchogue, NY......20.1

Mar 13...Southampton,NY.....18.3

Mar 8....New Farfield, CT..........26.8

Mar 2...Monroe, NY.................14.0

Jan 4...Islip, NY.......................15.8

2017

Mar 14...Montgomery, NY.......23.5

Feb 9...Selden, NY...................16.0

Jan 7...Orient, NY....................12.5

2016

Feb 5...Setauket, NY................12.0

Jan 23..JFK,NY.........................30.5

2015

Feb 2..New Faifield, CT............12.0

Jan 26-27....Orient,NY.............28.5

2014

Feb 13-14...Roselle, NJ............16.7

Jan 21-22....Centerreach,NY....14.0

Jan 2-3......Lindenhurst, NY.....12.5

2013

Mar 8....Harriman,NY..............15.0

Feb 8....Upton, NY..................30.9

2012

Nov 7-8.....Monroe, CT..........13.5

Jan 21......North Haven, CT....12.0

2011

Oct 29.....Harriman, NY.........16.0

Jan 26-27...NYC................... 19.0

Jan 11-12.......Meriden, CT....29.0

2010

Feb 25-26...Mount Hope, NY...27.5

Dec 26........Elizabeth, NJ........31.8

Feb. 10.....Sound Beach, NY....16.2

2009

Dec 19-20....Upton, NY..........26.3

[brooklynwx99]

the GEFS has made pretty massive changes in the last day after it picked up on that 50/50... much more blocking and the Pacific is much improved now that it's picking up on the effect the Siberian TPV and +EAMT

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the GEFS has made pretty massive changes in the last day after it picked up on that 50/50... much more blocking and the Pacific is much improved now that it's picking up on the effect the Siberian TPV and +EAMT

I don't think it's done trending either 

GEFS with the rare coast to coast troughiness in the long range 

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I don't think it's done trending either 

It’s going towards the EPO block look for sure but we’ll need the AO to stay negative or eventually the SER pops and the cutter threat comes back probably 

[Tatamy]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

FWIW the storm track on the CMC and GFS are VERY close.

Whether mostly rain or not we shall see.

A look at the surface winds during the course of this storm as shown on these models paints a revealing picture of why LI and most of NYC is mainly rain while the rain / snow line is right near the CT coast.  As the event begins those surface winds are mainly from the east.  That locks in the slightly milder air mass coming in from off the warm ocean.  With time those winds do back around to north- northeast and north and increase.  Only then can the BL cool enough in order for snow flakes to reach the surface.  By then the heaviest precipitation has moved to the east.  The only way this gets done sooner is if precipitation falls at much heavier rates.  I saw this happen many times when I lived out on the island.  For the sake of those of you out on the island hopefully this event evolves differently.

[EastonSN+]

10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s going towards the EPO block look for sure but we’ll need the AO to stay negative or eventually the SER pops and the cutter threat comes back probably 

Dollars to donuts we get a hecs during the 17th to 22nd period then we RNA for a bit. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Dollars to donuts we get a hecs during the 17th to 22nd period then we RNA for a bit. 

Those patterns so much depend upon the orientation of the block.  The 12Z GEFS has it oriented on a positive tilt into NT and BC but in 4 days if the models orient it more over AK you obviously have a huge SE ridge.  It’s hard to get that 93-94 -EPO 

[EastonSN+]

13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Those patterns so much depend upon the orientation of the block.  The 12Z GEFS has it oriented on a positive tilt into NT and BC but in 4 days if the models orient it more over AK you obviously have a huge SE ridge.  It’s hard to get that 93-94 -EPO 

Definitely rolls to an RNA, but I am definitely seeing a good window for an 8 to 12 type event before then. The way the GEFS rolls it looks nice in the transition.

[NorthShoreWx]

51 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Has any place been better than ISP for those big snowfalls on Long Island?

BNL or somewhere on the north shore in eastern LI might be doing even better (like somewhere around Mt Sinai.)

 

A lot of places do better than ISP on average, although undeniably ISP has had some big storm jackpots in recent years.

[EastonSN+]

Right here, PNA turning to RNA to help push a storm into our area with blocking in place and colder air in place.

May miss south or east, but this is our window.

[EastonSN+]

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays. 

[Franklin0529]

Euro coming in more amped for 11/12th. But the blocking in Canada stronger as well.. models are really starting to feel that block

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Euro coming in more amped for 11/12th. But the blocking in Canada stronger as well.. models are really starting to feel that block

Nice little event for interior areas. Maybe flakes for the coast.

[SnowGoose69]

Meanwhile the GEPS really looks more like a positive PNA ridge than the GEFS EPO ridge 

[brooklynwx99]

holy crap

[Uniblab]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays. 

We always do. 

 

[MANDA]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

Nice look and closing in on -10 days for a change.  Lets see if the general theme holds in the days ahead.  Perhaps start date is just before the 12/20 I've been thinking.  I believe Monday system has potential for N & W of NYC.  Likely not the extreme of 00Z GGEM but something on the order of C-2 or maybe 1-3 north of Rt. 80 and west of 287 in NJ.  That is my early thinking.  Any POSSIBLE accumulation for the coast will have to depend on 500 trending very favorably and rapid sfc intensification.  Not expecting this to pull off the extreme solution but worth watching for N & W.

[EastonSN+]

44 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

holy crap

The potential is definitely there. 

[North and West]

.

[Eduardo]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays. 

Lol I mean, I could have told you that 4 years ago .